Our tennis man Andy Schooler previews this week’s ATP action in Munich and Estoril.
Tennis betting tips: BMW Open & Millennium Estoril Open
1pt e.w. Miomir Kecmanovic in BMW Open at 12/1 (BoyleSports)
0.5pt e.w. Emil Ruusuvuori in BMW Open at 40/1 (Betfred)
1pt win Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Millennium Estoril Open at 6/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Tommy Paul in the Millennium Estoril Open at 16/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
BMW Open
- Munich, Germany (outdoor clay)
Two top-10 players head to Munich this week and, to be frank, it would be no surprise to see both contesting next weekend’s final.
Home hope Alex Zverev, the top seed, is a two-time champion here and looked in decent nick on his return to clay in Monte Carlo where he beat Federico Delbonis, Pablo Carreno Busta and Jannik Sinner before losing in the semi-finals to Stefanos Tsitsipas.
There’s no-one of Tsitsipas’ quality here this week with the closest being Casper Ruud.
The Norwegian has been slightly disappointing so far on the European clay, losing early in Monte Carlo and then bowing out in the last eight of Barcelona last week.
Yet there were signs in that quarter-final against Carreno Busta that he was getting back to something like his best. Indeed, Ruud held three match points in the second set before losing in a decider.
It would be easy to nail my colours to the mast of one of the pair – for the record Zverev leads their head-to-head 2-1, although they’ve yet to meet on clay – but at best odds of 15/8 and 3/1 respectively, doing so would feel wrong.
I don’t think there’s much value in either man’s price and it’s not that hard to pick holes in their cases.
I’ve already suggested that Ruud isn’t at his top level right now and an opening match against Alex Molcan, the recent Marrakech finalist, could be tricky.
Meanwhile, for all Zverev’s strong ‘course form’, it’s worth mentioning that he’s lost to Ilya Ivashka and Cristian Garin on his last two visits to Munich.
In terms of alternatives, MIOMIR KECMANOVIC holds decent claims.
The Serb is enjoying a fine season and last week he made his fifth quarter-final of the season, only losing in a final set to world number one Novak Djokovic in Belgrade.
That followed last-eight appearances on the clay of Santiago and Rio during the South American ‘Golden Swing’, as well as in stronger fields in Indian Wells and Miami.
There’s a bit of altitude involved at this venue, Munich being 500m above sea level, and so it’s notable that Kecmanovic’s only ATP title so far came in nearby Kitzbuhel.
He’s in the bottom half of the draw (alongside Ruud). Former champions Philipp Kohlschreiber and Nikoloz Basilashvili are both in his quarter, which is a slight concern, but neither man is in great form right now.
Kecmanovic looks in the sort of form which will see him reach a final sooner or later and this might just be the week.
At 12/1, he’s worth an investment.
Marton Fucsovics is the other I thought looked a big price (35/1) in the bottom half.
The Hungarian has twice made the quarter-finals here and his previous ATP title came in the foothills of the Alps – in Geneva at a similar altitude to this.
Fucsovics made the last 16 in Barcelona last week where Delbonis, a decent claycourter, was among his victims. He eventually lost a three-hour epic to Cam Norrie, 6-4 in the decider.
He held onto his serve pretty well last week and beating John Millman and (probably) Botic van de Zandschulp doesn’t look the hardest task to set up a potential quarter-final with Ruud.
If they do meet, you wonder if the Hungarian’s 6-0 6-0 win in their only previous meeting, albeit in a match which took place when Ruud was just a teenager, will have left any scars.
If you’re happy to take two in the bottom half, then Fucsovics is certainly worth considering. Having given him a good mention but not putting him on the coupon, there’s a good chance he’ll deliver!
In the top half, maybe Reilly Opelka will fancy his chances in these conditions which should aid his huge serve.
He recently won in relatively fast clay conditions in Houston and will now try to replicate that success in Europe where he famously reached the semi-finals of Rome last season.
He looks to have a decent draw but 9/1 looks about right.
For those seeking a bigger price, it might be worth giving EMIL RUUSUVUORI a go at 40/1.
The young Finn has already notched a few wins since the tour moved onto the European clay, while earlier in the season he was a runner-up in Pune and a semi-finalist in Melbourne.
His problem right now appears to be converting against the better players – he’s just 11-18 against top-50 players in his career so far with only two wins against such men this year. Against the top 20, it’s just 3-8.
However, one of those wins was against Zverev, his potential quarter-final foe. That came in Miami last season.
A qualifier and Dan Evans or Maxime Cressy isn’t a bad path to that possible meeting with Zverev so the talented 23-year-old may be worth some small change.
Posted at 1700 BST on 24/04/22
Millennium Estoril Open
- Estoril, Portugal (outdoor clay)
I’m much less convinced about the top seeds dominating the week’s other event, which takes place in Portugal.
Felix Auger-Aliassime, the only top-10 player in attendance, has now won just three of his last nine matches, although at least he did show some encouraging signs in defeat to Diego Schwartzman in Barcelona last week.
That man Schwartzman heads up the bottom half of the draw here.
After our 16/1 selection lost in the ‘money match’ in Barcelona, it would be jarring to see him go all the way this week but I’m not sure that will happen.
The Argentine has gone deep in a tournament in the last two weeks with Barcelona proving particularly taxing mentally with all the rain delays which saw Schwartzman play two matches on the Friday before the semi-final on Sunday.
With Roberto Carballes Baena a potential opening foe and Albert Ramos-Vinolas also in his quarter, Schwartzman isn’t for me on this occasion at 9/2.
Instead, I think it might be worth backing ALEJANDRO DAVIDOVICH FOKINA to use his recent run to the final in Monte Carlo as a springboard to success.
The Spaniard has long been touted for a big breakthrough and maybe Monte Carlo was that moment.
Here he gets similar conditions, while he’s got a first-round bye in a quarter which doesn’t look too hard.
Frances Tiafoe is the other seed in it and while he was the runner-up here in 2019, the American hasn’t been in great form. Neither has Dusan Lajovic, while Pablo Andujar was a big disappointment when we sided with him in Barcelona last week.
Davidovich Fokina has been to the last four here on both previous visits so this was his most productive venue prior to his recent Monte Carlo run, one which included victory over Novak Djokovic.
If he plays to that level again, he’ll make the 6/1 look big.
In the bottom half, I’m prepared to take another chance on TOMMY PAUL.
I’ve noted his improvement in this column already this season and he’s an American who isn’t put off by the clay – Paul is a former French Open junior champion.
He’s been in decent nick of late, beating Alex Zverev in Indian Wells and Karen Khachanov in Miami. When he hit the clay in Houston, he ran into Nick Kyrgios on a good serving day and duly struggled. That can happen to most.
Here he opens against Richard Gasquet, a player who won just three games against Miomir Kecmanovic last week in Belgrade. Jiri Vesely or a qualifier would follow, while the higher-ranked seed in the quarter is Marin Cilic and I’m not convinced the veteran Croatian in the sort of shape to replicate last season’s run to the semis here.
Paul made the last four in Parma last season around this time of year and at 16/1 I’m happy to back him each-way to small stakes.
Posted at 2130 BST on 24/04/22
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