Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour previews and best bets

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt win Dan Evans in the Qatar ExxonMobil Open at 12/1 (BetVictor)

0.5pt e.w. Marton Fucsovics in the Qatar ExxonMobil Open at 33/1 (BoyleSports)

0.5pt e.w. Ilya Ivashka in the Open 13 Provence at 30/1 (BetVictor)

2pts win Carlos Alcaraz in the Rio Open at 9/2 (BetVictor)

0.5pt e.w. Francisco Cerundolo in the Rio Open at 50/1 (Unibet, Betfred)

2pts win Reilly Opelka in the Delray Beach Open at 7/1 (Betfred)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Qatar ExxonMobil Open

• Doha, Qatar (outdoor hard)

The majority of this field are coming out of indoor conditions on to outdoor hardcourts which will prove a tricky transition for some.

But one man who should be well in tune with what the Middle East has to offer is DAN EVANS.

He spends much of his down time in nearby Dubai these days and has been there practising on outdoor hard for much of the past fortnight.

He’ll play in Dubai next week but the field will be much stronger then, so his week looks a good opportunity to make the most of Evans.

He started the year well in Australia, winning all three of his matches at the ATP Cup – this week’s top seed Denis Shapovalov and John Isner among his victims – before making the semis in Sydney.

A disappointing loss to Felix Auger-Aliassime followed at the Australian Open, the Briton falling apart after failing to take his chance in a tight first set. Evans said he had “panicked” that day but was prepared to out it down to a bad day at the office, admitting he hadn’t been able “to get my game on court”.

There aren’t too many of Auger-Aliassime’s class in this field. In fact there are only four ranked higher than Evans here.

Of those, former champion Roberto Bautista Agut and Marin Cilic are both in Evans’ half of the draw but the Briton is yet to lose to either man (admittedly he’s not faced RBA yet!) and I’m expecting a decent week from him.

Yes, his two previous visits to Doha have yielded just a single win but one of the losses was to a certain Roger Federer and it should be remembered that this event has usually been played in the opening week of the season over the years.

• CLICK HERE to back Evans with Sky Bet

Up in the top half, it’s probably worth taking on Shapovalov, who again flopped in Rotterdam last week, moaning about conditions during his defeat to qualifier Jiri Lehecka.

His best effort here is a quarter-final run and he certainly looks opposable given his slim odds.

In what doesn’t look the strongest half of an ATP draw you’ll see, MARTON FUCSOVICS may just be worth a go at 33/1.

He showed some good signs in Rotterdam last week, beating Tallon Griekspoor and Filip Krajinovic before losing to top-10 star Andrey Rublev.

His record at this event isn’t bad either with a 5-2 win-loss figure including quarter-final runs in each of the last two years – last season’s was ended by injury too. The Hungarian has also taken a set off world number one Novak Djokovic in the past at this venue.

In addition, there are two last-eight appearances in Dubai on Fucsovics’ record.

He’ll need an improvement to deliver a profit here but in a fairly weak section of the draw, there looks to be an opportunity to do that.

Fucsovics has the power to hit through a court which tends to slow down in the cooler night sessions here and if he is able to topple seed Lloyd Harris in his opener – something he did here last year - he could be in business.

• CLICK HERE to back Fucsovics with Sky Bet

Open 13 Provence

• Marseille, France (indoor hard)

Some of the fastest conditions on the ATP Tour are found in Marseille.

Subsequently this has long been a strong domain for two types of player – the big servers and those who like to attack and come forward. If the two characteristics can be combined, all the better.

Many have gone well at big prices here, two recent examples being last season’s runner-up Pierre-Hugues Herbert and 2019 runner-up Mikhail Kukushkin.

In that three-year period, Matt Ebden, Alexander Bublik and Ugo Humbert have all made the semis at chunky prices too.

Can we find another here?

Well, unfortunately we’ve got four of the world’s top 14 attendance – and the next highest-ranked player is the world number 48.

That’s going to make things a bit harder, although it’s still far from impossible that a chink will be found in the big-guns’ armour.

I’ll start in the top half where two-time winner Stefanos Tsitsipas and Felix Auger-Aliassime have both been placed.

The pair met in the Rotterdam final on Sunday so face a quick turnaround but both have made back-to-back finals before, notably FAA did so in the same two events two years ago.

After losing his first eight tour-level finals, perhaps the improving Canadian can win two in two weeks – BoyleSports might regret their 9/2 quote given how he served in Rotterdam. He didn’t lose his own delivery against Rublev in the semi-finals and didn’t face break point against Tsitsipas in the final.

I can see him being popular but I’m prepared to take a chance on 30/1 ILYA IVASHKA, a player I see fitting the profile for that ‘course horse’.

A big serve should prove difficult to break in these conditions and the Belarusian is someone who likes to come forward towards the net given the chance – he showed that when winning his maiden ATP title in Winston-Salem last summer.

Ivashka showed his propensity for fairly speedy conditions by reaching the last 16 at Wimbledon last season, while indoors he made the semis in Nur-Sultan.

• CLICK HERE to back Ivashka with Sky Bet

Unfortunately, Ivashka’s draw means he may have to beat both of the big seeds mentioned just to make the final and for that reason I’ll keep stakes small.

There looks a better opportunity for a surprise finalist in the bottom half – I expect Andrey Rublev and Aslan Karatsev will find the Gerflor surface a bit too quick for their liking.

The trouble is, there’s no standout candidate to play that big-serving/attacking role.

Tallon Griekspoor and Kamil Majchrzak, players I’ve mentioned in this column in recent weeks, both possess decent serves and could be a factor, but neither man has much of an indoor record to speak of.

Perhaps Mikael Ymer can go well again after his semi-final run in Montpellier a fortnight ago – he could be an awkward first opponent for Rublev. However, I still feel he’s rather limited.

The other option is to go with Herbert again.

With his strong volleying skills, last year’s beaten finalist certainly likes fast indoor conditions. However, the famously unvaccinated star recently had COVID, has done little since his return and only made the quarter-finals of a Challenger in Cherbourg last week.

In short, I’m struggling to find a convincing player to back.

It may pay to wait until the conclusion of the qualifying tournament on Monday with a couple of potential players through to the final round at time of writing – I’ll update the preview if necessary.

Rio Open

• Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (outdoor clay)

This week brings the highlight of the South American ‘Golden Swing’ of claycourt tournaments, the Rio Open.

Unlike its counterparts in Cordoba, Buenos Aires and Santiago, this event offers 500 ranking points to the winner, not to mention more prize money, hence the reason we’ve got some new faces stepping onto the clay for the first time in 2022.

The likes of Matteo Berrettini, this week’s top seed, and Pablo Carreno Busta didn’t bother with the Argentine legs of the swing.

This duo will be playing for the first time since the Australian Open and while both performed pretty well in Melbourne, there’s every chance they get caught cold on the new surface, particularly given the majority of this field is bedded in on the red dirt.

We’ve certainly seen plenty examples of that in the past in Rio.

One sample of evidence surrounds clay experts Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem. While both men have won the title here, Nadal has triumphed only once in three visits, Thiem once in five. Both are poor returns for players of their quality.

May I suggest that winning a claycourt event in Brazil just a few weeks before important Masters 1000s in Indian Wells and Miami isn’t exactly a top priority.

Both Berrettini and Carreno Busta have been drawn in the top half but it’s another new arrival to South America, CARLOS ALCARAZ, that I want on my coupon this week.

I know he’s not got those previous weeks behind him on this surface but he is much more of a natural on the clay and I see him as less vulnerable than the aforementioned pair.

He narrowly lost to Berrettini – 7-6 in the fifth – at the Australian Open but if they meet again in the quarter-finals here, I’d expect Alcaraz to prevail on this surface.

It was at this tournament that Alcaraz really announced himself to the world, winning his first tour-level match in 2020 by beating Albert Ramos-Vinolas when only 16.

He’ll have good memories of the Jockey Club Brasileiro and, given he’s only won one title on the ATP Tour so far, should also have that hunger that perhaps Berrettini and Carreno Busta won’t this week.

9/2 seems a reasonable price to me.

• CLICK HERE to back Alcaraz with Sky Bet

The bottom half is led by Casper Ruud, who was contesting the Argentina Open final at time of writing.

The Norwegian has proved he’s capable of going to back-to-back in the past – last year he became the first player in a decade to win in three successive weeks – but Ruud doesn’t have a great record here which has to be a concern.

For all his claycourt nous, the 23-year-old is just 5-4 in Rio with a best finish the semis – and that was on debut five years ago.

He can maybe taken on this week and I’m sure Diego Schwartzman will have his backers at 11/1 given the results he’s had over the past couple of weeks.

He’s the man due to face Ruud for the title in Buenos Aires, a run which has followed on from a last-four appearance in Cordoba.

But for those who like a chunky price on their coupon, you could do worse than back FRANCISCO CERUNDOLO each way at 50/1.

The Argentine made the last eight in Buenos Aries last week – another venue down at sea level, as is the case in Rio – and only lost 7-5 in the final set to Schwartzman.

He’s been playing on clay for several weeks and while the rest of the tour was Down Under, he was winning a Challenger Tour title in Bolivia.

Cerundolo is the type of grinder who could cause Ruud some problems in the second seed’s opening match of the tournament and I can’t resist throwing some small change at a player who last year made the Buenos Aires final at this time of year.

• CLICK HERE to back Cerundolo with Sky Bet

Delray Beach Open

• Delray Beach, USA (outdoor hard)

This looks a trappy event for punters.

Several firms have markets in which the first nine are all at 12/1 or lower. That says much.

Most have Cameron Norrie as favourite but the world number 13 hasn’t had the best starts to 2022 with two wins and five defeats so far.

Things did pick up in Rotterdam last week with the Briton only losing to eventual champion Felix Auger-Aliassime in the last eight.

However, he’s since had to make the trans-Atlantic flight to Florida and, like those arriving from Dallas, must get used to the outdoor conditions, ones which will be faster than Rotterdam.

The other thing which stood out when researching this event was the top-heavy draw, which Norrie is a part of.

It contains four former finalists in Yoshihito Nishioka, Peter Gojowczyk, Seb Korda and Kevin Anderson, as well as Norrie, fourth seed Tommy Paul and Jenson Brooksby, is competing in the Dallas Open final as I write.

Thanasi Kokkinakis, who re-emerged from injury hell in Australia last month, is another in this section, one which simply looks too tough to call.

However, the bottom section looks more appealing from a betting perspective.

And it is REILLY OPELKA who stands out at 7/1 here.

He didn’t drop his serve en route to the Dallas final, slamming down 84 aces in his three matches prior to his showdown with Brooksby.

Conditions won’t be quite so helpful here but this is a venue at which the big servers have tended to perform well at in the past – Juan Martin Del Potro, Ivo Karlovic, Sam Querrey and Marin Cilic are all on the roll of honour.

Opelka himself is on it too having won the title in 2020, the last time the event was held in its regular slot in the calendar.

If he can keep that serve in the groove in the outdoor conditions on offer here, then Opelka should be tough to beat – and there’s certainly not the same level of threat in this part of the draw as there would have been to him had he landed in the other half.

Jack Sock or Daniel Altmaier will be his first foe, before a clash with Adrian Mannarino, if the seedings play out.

Grigor Dimitrov is slated to be Opelka’s semi-final opponent, although 14/1 shot Maxime Cressy may threaten the Bulgarian – he flopped when we backed him in Dallas last week and it’s only natural to fear that he will deliver a week late.

Still, that looks a pretty decent route to the final for Opelka and he certainly looks the best value in that tight-packed market in which many in the top section are surely too short.

• CLICK HERE to back Opelka with Sky Bet

Posted at 1805 GMT on 13/02/22

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