Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour previews and best bets including BMW Open

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Karen Khachanov in the Barcelona Open at 40/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Alex de Minaur in the Barcelona Open at 18/1 (Star Sports)

1pt e.w. Cristian Garin in the BMW Open at 25/1 (Betfred)

1pt e.w. Pedro Martinez in the Tiriac Open at 14/1 (Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM)

0.5pt e.w. Marton Fucsovics in the Tiriac Open at 20/1 (bet365, Betfred, Star Sports)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell

• Barcelona, Spain (outdoor clay)

Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic didn’t enter, Carlos Alcaraz has withdrawn and we’ll have to wait and see about Monte Carlo finalists Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud.

In short, it may not be one of the sport’s biggest names which ends up being etched onto the trophy in Barcelona this week and betting opportunities are presenting themselves.

Alcaraz’s withdrawal due to a right arm injury certainly opens up the top half and, having rediscovered his form on his return to the clay, perhaps Tsitsipas can take advantage.

The Greek has struggled for most of the season until arriving in Monte Carlo last week where he duly swept to the title without losing a set.

It was Tsitsipas’ third title in the country of his current home and while his Barcelona record isn’t quite so good, it’s still impressive.

He’s made the final three times here, twice losing to Rafael Nadal. The other defeat came at the hands of Alcaraz 12 months ago.

Reaching two claycourt finals in as many weeks is a tough ask but Tsitsipas achieved the feat across the two events in 2021 and the ease of his Monte Carlo triumph means a repeat is far from out of the question.

Still, 9/2 isn’t for me.

Nadal’s latest comeback begins at a tournament he’s won 12 times before.

The all-time clay king will be backed by some at 11/2, I’ve no doubt, but given he’s barely played for 18 months, I simply can’t get involved at that price, even though we know what he’s capable of on this surface.

In fact, I’m tempted enough to side with a player Nadal could meet in round two and that’s ALEX DE MINAUR.

The Australian is enjoying a strong season to date and while you wouldn’t always associate him with success on clay, he spent much of his childhood on it having been based for long periods of his junior career in nearby Alicante.

His record in Barcelona also shows his much-lauded defensive skills are well suited to the red dirt.

De Minaur made the last four here in 2022, only losing to Alcaraz having held two match points. Last year he reached the quarter-finals before being beaten by Tsitsipas.

The pair could meet again in this season’s semi-finals but given the price differential, I’m prepared to side with De Minaur.

He’s capable of taking down a rusty Nadal and if that happens I’d also expect him to get past fellow seeds Arthur Fils and Ugo Humbert.

At 18/1, De Minaur looks worth an interest.

The aforementioned Ruud is in the bottom half of the draw, one led by Andrey Rublev.

However, the Russian has struggled for form of late and I don’t see him turning things around in a field on this quality, while Ruud looks risky business given his efforts in Monte Carlo, which ended with a pretty resounding loss in the final.

I’ll happily take both on – as well as clay specialist Sebastian Baez – by backing KAREN KHACHANOV.

While I was away last week and didn’t preview Monte Carlo, the Russian did interest me personally and I wasn’t surprised to see him make the quarter-finals in Monaco.

Victories over Cam Norrie, Francisco Cerundolo and Daniil Medvedev are decent results, while losing to eventual champ Tsitsipas was far from a disaster.

I think that week – plus a few extra days off following defeat on Friday – is very good prep for a title tilt in Bacrelona.

Khachanov could meet Norrie again this week, while a quarter-final with Rublev is also on the cards – and Khachanov leads their head to head 3-2. Ruud is a possible semi-final foe.

Odds of 40/1 make appeal and he’s my best bet in Barcelona.

BMW Open

• Munich, Germany (outdoor clay)

Alex Zverev and Holger Rune have both won this title twice and the duo occupy the top two seeding spots for this year’s renewal.

We could well see the pair contesting the final next Sunday and if you are going with the favourites, Rune looks the better bet after he showed some decent signs in Monte Carlo last week.

The Dane posted a notable win over Grigor Dimitrov before losing to Jannik Sinner in three sets, a result which you wondered could have been different had Rune not had to play for five hours the previous day.

An easier schedule – including a first-round bye – this week could see him return to the winners’ circle.

Still, 12/5 is not great price for a player whose win here last season remains his only title in the last 18 months.

Zverev, beaten by eventual champion Stefanos Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo, is at 11/4 but he remains a player I’m reluctant to trust at a short price, even in front of his home fans.

He’s won only one of his last four matches in Munich and so perhaps he could be vulnerable against Jurij Rodionov, if the pair meet in round two. The Austrian was a semi-finalist at the Madrid Challenger at the weekend.

Notably, both Madrid and Munich are played a significant altitude – they are around 500m above sea level this week – which makes ball control that bit more difficult.

CRISTIAN GARIN is a player with a proven tack record in such conditions and he has potential this week at 25/1.

Three of the Chilean’s five ATP titles have come well above sea level, including one here back in 2019.

Admittedly, it’s three years since his last success at tour level but Garin found a bit of form on his favourite clay surface in Estoril recently.

He saw off both Arthur Fils and Nuno Borges en route to the semi-finals where he took a set off eventual champion Hubert Hurkacz.

After a week off, Garin, who was a quarter-finalist here 12 months ago, should be keen to continue in a similar vein.

He opens against seventh seed Dominik Koepfer, who he beat in straight sets on clay in their only previous meeting. If that match is won, Alex Michelsen or wild card Max Hans Rehberg will follow. Then could come Zverev, who Garin beat here during his 2019 title run.

If you are happy to take on the leading contenders, Garin looks worth a shot at the price.

As already pointed out, Rune looks harder to oppose in the bottom half, although there are possibilities if you are looking to do so.

Botic van de Zandschulp (25s) has made the last two finals here so perhaps a return to Munich will bring a welcome change of form – it certainly worked with Stefanos Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo last week.

However, with the Dutchman yet to win back-to-back matches in 2024, it’s hard to make a solid case.

Yannik Hanfmann (33s) is a player with a good altitude record.

He’s a former quarter-finalist here and his best result this season was a run to the last eight up in Cordoba.

Still, it’s another German who makes the most appeal for those looking to oppose Rune.

Jan-Lennard Struff made the final here in 2021 and has also made one other semi-final and two quarter-finals.

He’s Monte Carlo effort looks a decent one coming in here – wins over Sebastian Baez and Borna Coric were followed by defeat to Jannik Sinner; no disgrace there.

Struff has a first-round bye and could face van de Zandschulp in his opener. Felix Auger-Aliassime is the other seed in this quarter.

The home hope could shine here and at 14/1 is well worth considering but the presence of defending champion Rune in this half is putting me off pulling the trigger so I’ll stick with Garin in this event.

Tiriac Open

• Bucharest, Romania (outdoor clay)

The last time the ATP Tour headed to Bucharest, Bernard Tomic was the top seed; a lot has changed in eight years.

Francisco Cerundolo is at the top of the draw for the return to Romania which means no top-20 players are in attendance.

It also means the layers are struggling to find a favourite – it’s 7/1 the field with Cerundolo vying with Sebastian Korda for favouritism, with Lorenzo Sonego and Tallon Griekspoor just behind in the market.

Like the bookies, I’m not particularly convinced by any of that quartet with all having potentially tricky openers.

Korda could meet Thanasi Kokkinakis first, a finalist on the Challenger Tour at the weekend, while Cerundolo will face Federico Coria or Richard Gasquet. He’s also in the same quarter as a couple of this season’s breakout clay stars in Luciano Darderi, the winner in Cordoba, and Mariano Navone, runner-up in Rio and a semi-finalist in Marrakech recently.

Navone is tempting at 35/1 but he and Darderi meet in round one and the Argentine won just three games when he faced the Italian in Buenos Aires in February which is rather off-putting.

Instead, I’m turning to PEDRO MARTINEZ in the top half.

Perhaps I’ve already missed the boat with the Spaniard, who I highlighted prior to his run to the final in Estoril earlier this month without actually backing him.

However, there’s no doubt the former top-40 star is back in fine form on the red dirt having won the Girona Challenger before that final appearance in Portugal where Casper Ruud was among his victims.

This isn’t the greatest field so I’m happy to side with the form player at 14/1.

In the opposite half of the draw, Sonego faces rising star Joao Fonseca, a surprise quarter-finalist in Rio, first up but it’s the aforementioned Griekspoor I’m happy to oppose the most.

He could meet MARTON FUCSOVICS in his first match of the tournament, a player he’s lost all five sets against in the past.

The Hungarian showed some good signs in Estoril where he defeated both Pedro Cachin and Gael Monfils before running into Ruud, who has since made the final of the Monte Carlo Masters.

Fucsovics has won at tour-level on clay before and although that was back in 2018, he’s beaten the likes of Alex de Minaur and Daniil Medvedev on the surface in recent years.

Griekspoor returned to the clay at that event but after struggling past Dominik Koepfer, he lost to de Minaur, so he’s hardly sparkling on the surface yet.

With Sonego, Alejandro Tabilo and Nuno Borges the other seeds in this half, Fucsovics looks worth a small each-way wager at 20/1.

Posted at 1805 BST on 14/04/24

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