Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour previews and best bets for Monte-Carlo Masters

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Casper Ruud at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, bet365)

1pt e.w. Holger Rune at 25/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters

• Monte-Carlo, Monaco (outdoor clay)

Whenever the photos of the idyllic Monte Carlo County Club start hitting social media, I’m reminded of one thing – Rafael Nadal.

The claycourt GOAT won this title a remarkable 11 times – the first 20 years ago this week – but this year will be the first with the Spaniard in retirement. A new page is being turned.

In recent years, a new, more unexpected dominance has arrived at this venue in the shape of Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The Greek has won three of the last four tournaments here despite his career having failed to really kick on across that period.

OK, since that first victory in 2021, Tsitsipas has reached two Grand Slam finals and moved from world number five to a high of three.

But no Grand Slam titles have been forthcoming, while he’s also yet to win a Masters 1000 event anywhere else and has now fallen down to eighth in the rankings.

What has been clear over the past four years is that this is the time of year when the Greek is at his most dangerous.

He’s not been in the best of form but that’s been the case before when he’s arrived in Monte Carlo.

It could well be a return to the clay kicks him back into top gear and he’ll definitely have his backers again but I’m not getting involved at a best of 14/1 in this field.

Most of the world’s best are here. Obviously banned world number one Jannik Sinner isn’t but the only other top-10 star absent is Taylor Fritz.

Carlos Alcaraz starts as favourite but there are plenty of reasons why I don’t want to back him at 7/4.

Primarily, recent results have been poor.

Since winning in Rotterdam in February, the Spaniard has lost to Jiri Lehecka in Doha, thrown in a bit of a horror show against Jack Draper in Indian Wells and lost in his opening match in Miami to veteran David Goffin.

There’s also the fact that Alcaraz has never actually won a match in Monte Carlo before. That stems from him having only played the event once but that lack of familiarity with conditions – especially given this will be his first clay event of the season – could be an issue in a likely opener against Francisco Cerundolo, who is a very good player on clay.

Former champion Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud, last year’s runner-up, are other potential opponents before the final.

Of course, Alcaraz will be another hoping the return to his natural surface brings a change of fortune and that may well be the case – the fact that he’s actually playing at this time of year rather than nursing another injury is one good sign.

Still, for me, the price is skinny.

The other leading seeds are Alex Zverev and Novak Djokovic.

Zverev has never reached the final here and has been disappointing since his meek Australian Open final loss.

He’s gone 6-5 since leaving Melbourne, a run which has included a claycourt tour of South America where he failed to make an impact in much weaker fields than this.

As for Djokovic, he returned to something like top form in Miami only to lose the final to teenager Jakub Mensik.

You do wonder how much an eye issue affected him ahead of and during that match and clearly he has potential here.

However, it’s only been a week since that hardcourt defeat and the past decade suggests the transition to the clay hasn’t been the easiest to make.

Since he won the second of his two titles here in 2015, Djokovic has lost in either his first or second match on five occasions.

I suspect he could be vulnerable again this time around with old rival Stan Wawrinka or Alejandro Tabilo – the man who beat him in Rome last season – up first. Then could come a meeting with Nicolas Jarry, who is a decent sort on this surface.

In short, the top three seeds are worth opposing.

The early stages of the clay season are always tricky to negotiate but one player I’m prepared to take a chance on is CASPER RUUD.

• CLICK HERE to back Ruud with Sky Bet

It’s certainly fair to say his form isn’t great coming here but he’s also a natural on this surface and should take to it like a duck to water.

The Norwegian’s best results have always come on clay and last year he turned up here and duly made the final. There’s also a semi-final appearance from 2021 on his CV.

While Ruud hasn’t played an ATP warm-up event on the surface this year following Estoril’s date change, he did captured the UTS title in Nimes at the weekend, beating Rublev in the semis and Tomas Machac in the final.

He also looks to have the draw which could see him play himself into this tournament.

Brandon Nakashima or Roberto Bautista Agut will be up first, with Frances Tiafoe a weak-looking first seed in his path.

Jack Draper could be more of a problem in the last eight (the pair have never met) and I was certainly tempted by the Briton, who is no mug on clay.

However, I just feel Ruud’s experience and natural affinity with the surface stands him in better stead and I am happy to back him at 14s.

Read the Rune

Looking at the top half in search of some value, I think whoever comes through the section of Alex de Minaur, Sebastian Baez and Machac could go deep.

However, only one of them will survive round two which makes betting on any of them risky business.

In addition, Machac was injured at both of the recent Sunshine Double tournaments and that remains a worry despite his appearance in Nimes, while Baez’s record against top-20 players remains poor.

Instead, I’m going to leap up to the top quarter and back a player who has competed well here in the recent past and that’s HOLGER RUNE.

• CLICK HERE to back Rune with Sky Bet

The Dane made the final here in 2023 – when he really should have beaten Andrey Rublev – and reached the last eight 12 months ago.

Rune is a strong mover on this surface and has good touch when he comes towards the net so I think he’ll be relishing a move onto the clay.

A resident of Monte Carlo, Rune has been practising at the venue for the past week so should be attuned to conditions and raring to go.

He’s in the same section of the draw as Tsitsipas – the pair could meet in the last 16 – but significantly Rune leads their head-to-head 4-0.

One of those matches was on clay, while the most recent was just a few weeks ago when Rune was a straight-sets winner in Indian Wells.

It was on the slower hardcourts of the Californian desert that Rune returned to form, going on to make the final where he was beaten by the red-hot Draper.

Still, that run will have renewed confidence and I’m not too concerned by his first-round defeat in Miami, particularly given it came in a final-set tie-break against the huge-serving Reilly Opelka.

Now back on a slower surface, I can see Rune competing well again here and I’m tempted into an each-way play at 25/1.

Posted at 2145 BST on 05/04/25

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