Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for Winston-Salem Open

Tennis betting tips: Winston-Salem Open

0.5pt e.w. Aleksandar Vukic at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt e.w. Alexander Shevchenko at 28/1 (Betfred)

0.5pt e.w. Dominik Koepfer at 50/1 (Betfred)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Winston-Salem Open

• Winston-Salem, USA (outdoor hard)

Maybe it’s time for a change of approach.

A remarkable recent run of big-priced selections losing from incredible positions of strength showed no sign of ending last week with 66/1 shot Hubert Hurkacz missing match point in his Cincinnati semi-final with Carlos Alcaraz (he also blew a 4-1 lead in the ensuing tie-break).

And while I think this may well be the worst such run in 20-odd years of doing this, the fact is the outsiders will lose this way – and have done too regularly in this column for a long time.

I’m not daft enough to think it’s bad luck. People will also throw the word ‘variance’ into the mix, as they tend to do, but the bottom line is that players are priced up for a reason and a massive part of that reason is their mental ability.

You often hear the phrase ‘90% of tennis is mental’, or something of that ilk, and while you can argue the figure is wrong, the general theory is right.

We saw on Saturday how Hurkacz failed to deliver a fairly routine forehand on the biggest point. And while he saved break points time and again with good serves, when he really that serve to close out the breaker, it went AWOL.

Those who can execute under pressure enjoy a huge advantage in this sport and it’s a big reason behind Novak Djokovic’s success.

You can throw in Carlos Alcaraz into that pot too – time and time again in Cincinnati he found himself in a spot of bother yet he didn’t fold and found a way to get through. You often don’t even need to play your best on big points, just be there to get the ball back and wait for the nerve-jangling mistake from the opponent.

The reality is opposing such mentally-tough players is usually a bad move, so why do we bother?

The problem is I’m not sure people really want me to be sticking up Djokovic and Alcaraz at short prices every week (both were around the 2/1 mark in Cincy) but then if it actually delivers a profit... Perhaps you can let me know what you want.

The good thing this week is neither man is in the field in Winston-Salem; in fact no-one from the top 10 is. The bad news is that I wrote most of this preview before Hurkacz did his thing so there’s no change of tack yet.

With the US Open now just a week away it’s no surprise to see that the final warm-up event is frankly pretty weak with only one top-20 player – Borna Coric – involved.

And as has long been the case in this column, there’s little interest in backing a player hopeful of a big run at the forthcoming major. For all the recent travails that’s a theory I am going to stick to.

Will Coric really want to play five matches in six days (or maybe even five in five) prior to the US Open? And even if he does, will he be able to get through those encounters without feeling a tweak which could well result in his withdrawal – there are usually several in the week before a Slam.

I much prefer to back an outsider in week such as this, someone who will be fully motivated by the task at hand and not having one eye on what’s to come.

In this instance, someone with a bit of form on the hardcourts is ideal, although not a player who’s played a lot of tennis over the past month as they could again opt to throw in the towel after a few rounds.

In addition, some history in performing well in a week before a Slam would help.

As you should be able to tell by now, I’m happy to take on top seed Coric in the top half – he’s very hit and miss at the best of times.

This half is packed with players who are arriving here having opted to stay behind in Europe for the closing claycourt events of the season so many will be playing their first hardcourt match in months.

Those that have been in North America for the past few weeks should have an advantage.

Home hope Marcos Giron fits into that bracket and he recently made the last 16 in Toronto where top-10 star Holger Rune was among his victims.

Giron has done fairly well in the week before a Slam before, reaching quarter-finals in Auckland this year, Mallorca in 2002 and here in Winston-Salem in 2021. He was also a semi-finalist on the Challenger Tour the week before the 2020 Australian Open.

To me, that shows someone prepared to give it a good go in such weeks, although I do have a lingering doubt, largely due to his nationality.

The US Open will be the most important event of Giron’s season so there’s just that doubt that he’ll want to leave everything out there this week.

Instead, I’m going to back ALEKSANDAR VUKIC at 28/1.

The Australian has enjoyed a strong 2023, climbing up to a career-high ranking inside the top 50.

He’s built on three Challenger Tour finals (one of which was won) in the first half of the season and has been winning plenty of matches on the main tour since hitting the hardcourts.

• CLICK HERE to back Vukic with Sky Bet

Vukic was a surprise finalist in Atlanta where he beat three top-40 players and followed that up by beating both Coric and Seb Korda at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto where he reached the last 16.

A strong serve is a big part of the Vukic game and he delivered no fewer than 74 aces in his five matches in Atlanta.

It plays pretty fast in Georgia and conditions should be favourable here too with a Laykold surface in use, a bit of altitude in play (they are around 250m above sea level, similar to Cincinnati) and temperatures expected to nudge 36C.

With Vukic’s quarter of the draw full of players lacking hardcourt matchplay, he looks to have a strong chance at tasty odds.

Moving into the bottom half, I’m again prepared to take on the bigger names which include Tallon Griekspoor, title favourite Korda and Jiri Lehecka.

First up, I’m going to go with ALEXANDER SHEVCHENKO.

• CLICK HERE to back Shevchenko with Sky Bet

This is his first year on the main tour and so you won’t be surprised he’s yet to make an ATP final.

However, after some decent wins of late, he may well see this as an opportunity to break that duck.

The Russian made the last 16 in Washington where he beat Maxime Cressy and Korda before losing to eventual champion Dan Evans.

Then in Cincinnati, he defeated Marton Fucsovics and Diego Schwartzman in qualifying before losing in three sets to Lorenzo Sonego.

I think there’s enough there to suggest he could go well this week at 28/1.

Finally, let’s try DOMINIK KOEPFER in the bottom quarter.

He’s another who has built his confidence by winning a lot of matches on the Challenger Tour and recently he’s been able to transfer that success to the main tour.

The German defeated John Isner and Evans en route to the quarter-finals in Atlanta and followed that up with a semi-final run in Los Cabos.

• CLICK HERE to back Koepfer with Sky Bet

Too lowly-ranked to make the Masters events of the past two weeks, he’s well rested and should be ready to give a good effort this week.

Interestingly, he won a Challenger the week before Roland Garros Qualifying earlier this year, while in 2021 he was a quarter-finalist in Geneva, playing three three-set matches the week before the French Open.

Odds of 50/1 look too big.

Published at 1115 BST on 20/08/23

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And before I go, it’s worth noting the main draw begins at 2000 BST on Sunday!