Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for the Mutua Madrid Open

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1.5pts e.w. Alex Zverev at 15/1 (Unibet, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet)

1pt e.w. Matteo Berrettini at 66/1 (Unibet, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Mutua Madrid Open

• Madrid, Spain (outdoor clay)

Carlos Alcaraz has won in Madrid in two of the past three years and starts favourite to complete a treble in 2025.

However, this year will hit different to 2022 and 2023 when he triumphed at the Caja Magica.

Unlike in those years, Alcaraz arrived at the start of the claycourt season in good physical shape and he’s duly already played Monte Carlo and Barcelona, winning the former and making the final of the latter.

That’s plenty of tennis over the past fortnight and with the Rome Masters still to come before the French Open, we’re getting to the stage where the Grand Slam title favourite will begin to think about how much tennis he really wants in his legs heading to Roland Garros.

Fatigue was a concern last week when I previewed Barcelona and while the Spaniard did make the final, that match proved a step too far with Holger Rune halting his winning streak.

Rune’s victory was certainly frustrating for me – I’d put him up the week before in Monte Carlo only to see him withdraw after one set due to illness.

A simple theory of many will be that Alcaraz will still be giving his all in front of a home crowd this week, and that may well be true.

But whether that’s really the best policy is open to question.

Madrid has long been the outlier in the lead-in to the French Open – having played down at sea level in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, players now have to leap up to close to 700m above it, before heading back down again to Rome.

In short, conditions here are the furthest removed from Roland Garros on the European clay swing. It’s easy to suggest that players would be better off going full pelt elsewhere than here.

The high altitude means the ball flies through the thinner air that bit faster which can aid the power players and big servers. However, you also need to be able to control the ball – full power can lead to shots going long.

Such conditions have led to surprises here.

Jan-Lennard Struff made the final two years ago, while Matteo Berrettini was a chunky price (when tipped up in this column) in 2021. Both have that power element to their game.

Meanwhile, Andrey Rublev was a shock winner last season, although he’s hardly confident about backing things up, saying a ranking drop was now “inevitable”.

Perhaps the best stat to show how conditions vary is that Rafael Nadal only won this title four times in 14 visits. I use the word only as it’s all relative – remember he won Monte Carlo 11 times out of 17 and Rome 10 of 19.

Novak Djokovic actually has a better strike-rate at this tournament – winning three times in nine attempts.

He’s back for another shot this year but anyone who saw him lose his Monte Carlo opener to Alejandro Tabilo should have concerns about getting involved with the Serb at single-figure odds.

As ever, the proviso of ‘if he brings his A-game’ very much applies. But the fact is, we’re seeing that level less and less these days and it is hard to be confident about Djokovic success any more, especially on what was always been his weakest surface.

Both Djokovic and Alcaraz are in the bottom half of the draw – they could meet in the semi-finals – and, for me, the value lies in the top half.

Rublev is here, as is Barcelona champion Rune, but the man I like is ALEX ZVEREV at 15/1.

After a sticky patch of form, I was reluctant to back him in Munich last week but a trip to Bavaria proved to be just what the doctor ordered.

There’s also plenty of altitude in play there and Zverev used his power to good effect, losing his serve only four times in five matches and dropping just one set.

Four of his five matches were over in 91 minutes or less so fatigue seems unlikely to be an issue, while the conditions in Munich – where it was warmer than usual – should have provided ideal preparation for this event.

What really makes me keen on the German is his record in Madrid, which is excellent.

His win-loss here is at 23-5 with Zverev having twice won the title (2018 and 2021). He was also runner-up to Alcaraz in 2022.

He’s posted wins over Nadal, Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas in Madrid and is now 8-3 against top-10 players at the venue.

Admittedly, two of those losses have been heavy ones at the hands of Alcaraz but the pair can’t meet until the final this year and so double-figure prices represent a good each-way play.

Of course, tricky hurdles could lie in wait – Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Arthur Fils are potential opponents before the quarter-finals – but that’s to be expected in a Masters 1000 field and Zverev has the skillset to beat such players, especially in these favourable conditions for his game.

Turning to the bottom half, I’m ready to oppose Alcaraz and Djokovic in a bid to try to find that big price which has so often delivered in Madrid.

And the man I’m turning to is MATTEO BERRETTINI.

As already highlighted, he made the final here in 2021 and he has that service power which will win him plenty of cheap points in Madrid.

His one claycourt outing so far came in Monte Carlo where he looked good, defeating dirt specialist Mariano Navone and then top seed Zverev before running into eventual finalist Lorenzo Musetti.

He’s in the Djokovic quarter but even if the Serb gets to the last eight, Berrettini will head into that match knowing he’s already got the better of him in Doha this season.

A bigger concern for me is the presence of Jack Draper in this section – they could meet in round three and the Briton leads the head-to-head 2-0.

However, both matches have been tight, three-set affairs and Berrettini’s clay nous could see him turn the tide.

Berrettini went 15-1 on clay last season and while most of those matches came at a lower level than this, what is notable from that run is where the victories came.

The Italian claimed titles in Marrakech, Gstaad and Kitzbuhel in 2024, all of which are at significant altitude.

In short, Berrettini will be totally happy playing in these conditions and looks worth an each-way punt.

Posted at 1110 BST on 22/04/25

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