Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for Rotterdam, Dallas and Buenos Aires

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

0.5pt e.w. Zizou Bergs in the ABN AMRO Open at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt e.w. Learner Tien in the Nexo Dallas Open at 14/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Reilly Opelka in the Nexo Dallas Open at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt e.w. Sebastian Baez in the IEB+ Argentina Open at 13/2 (BetMGM, VirginBet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

ABN AMRO Open

• Rotterdam, Netherlands (indoor hard)

Three of the world’s top 10 are in Rotterdam this week but this is an event which looks to have many potential champions.

You just need to look at some of the first-round match-ups to see that as these show the potential for some early upsets.

Alex de Minaur is probably a worthy favourite. He played well in Australia and has reached the final here in each of the last two years.

However, opening against the fit-again Arthur Fils, who returned to the tour with a quarter-final run in Montpellier last week, won’t be easy.

In the same half, Daniil Medvedev faces indoor specialist Ugo Humbert first up and, in the bottom section, third seed Alexander Bublik takes on Hubert Hurkacz, who has won their last six meetings.

Simply based on that draw, I’d be reluctant to get involved with those three, who are all among the top four in the betting. For the record, Hurkacz is the fifth man on the list.

The player we haven’t mentioned yet in that top five is Felix Auger-Aliassime.

He is another who has really made a name for himself indoors and, at time of writing, he’s contesting the final in Montpellier.

Also a former champion in Rotterdam, I have no doubt he’ll have his backers this week but going back-to-back is a physical challenge, while there’s also the adaption to different conditions to be done.

Last year, the tournament appeared to go back towards slower conditions and the season stats certainly made it one of the most sluggish indoor hardcourt events.

That’s not great for FAA.

So, who else could contend?

Well, I’ve backed Tallon Griekspoor here in the past two years – he lost in the semis in 2024 as a 50/1 shot. The Dutchman also made the last four in 2023.

This event means a lot to the home hope, who started the season poorly but last week he took a step in the right direction in Montpellier where he made the quarter-finals before losing to two tie-breaks to qualifier Titouan Drouget.

That match could be something of a warning for those tempted to back Griekspoor this week – he faces the big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in round one.

Both men play an awful lot of breakers and I’d expect that match to be settled by a handful of points.

So, instead, I’m going to suggest a punt on a player who has started 2026 well and that’s ZIZOU BERGS.

The Belgian impressed as he helped his country reach the semi-finals of the United Cup Down Under, where he then lost a tight tussle with Hurkacz in the first round of the Australian Open.

Last season he made the semis of Marseille during this indoor swing, while 2024 saw a quarter-final run in Antwerp.

Bergs opens against Fabian Marozsan and if he wins that one, there will be a rematch with Auger-Aliassime.

The pair met during that United Cup with Bergs a convincing 6-4 6-2 winner in a contest which saw him hold serve throughout.

I don’t feel this is a tournament to be betting big on – it’s way too open – but Bergs may just be worth a small, each-way punt at 33/1.

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Nexo Dallas Open

• Dallas, USA (indoor hard)

The numbers are firmly in favour of an American winner of the Dallas Open.

The top six in the betting market are all from the host nation, while the majority of the field is also from the US, as well as five of the eight seeds.

My picks here will follow suit, although the two favourites won’t be among them.

Taylor Fritz is just 4-3 in three visits to Dallas, while Shelton is 3-2 in two trips to the Texan city. Neither has made the final.

Both also have tricky first-round ties to negotiate.

Fritz takes on Marcos Giron, who has already made two semi-finals this season and has given him regularly problems in the past, including beating him at this venue.

As for Shelton, he faces Gabriel Diallo, who is already bedded in on indoor hard having played in Canada’s Davis Cup win at the weekend.

Giron is of some interest at 50/1, clearly a price which will plummet if he downs Fritz.

However, even then the draw remains tough for the Hong Kong and Auckland semi-finalist, who could then have to beat Brandon Nakashima and Frances Tiafoe just to reach the last four.

The second quarter, topped by fourth seed Flavio Cobolli, looks much weaker.

It’s here that I like the look of LEARNER TIEN at 14/1.

He is returning to action for the first time since reaching the quarter-finals of the Australian Open where he destroyed Daniil Medvedev before losing a tight contest to Alex Zverev.

Notably, he ended 2025 with back-to-back indoor tournament wins, first in Metz and then in Jeddah at the Next Gen ATP Finals.

It’s probably going to be a little faster than ideal for Tien here – Dallas tends to play pretty slick – but the youngster has shown great ability to adapt to different conditions over the past 12 months.

He’s also become a player capable of beating just about anyone – he’s posted eight top-20 wins in the past 15 months, including a victory over Shelton. For the record, he’s yet to face possible semi-final foe Fritz.

14s looks a fair price to me about this talent.

In the bottom half, a case can certainly be made for Tommy Paul, who won here two years ago.

However, the fact is he was playing on clay in Davis Cup in Hungary at the weekend – while he wasn’t on court on Sunday he was still in Tatabanya where the USA ultimately won 4-0.

There are no byes in Dallas and a first-round clash with 2022 runner-up Jenson Brooksby doesn’t look a great one for a jaded Paul to be facing on Wednesday.

Instead, I’m going to throw a bit of a dart with REILLY OPELKA.

He’s probably not the threat he once was – Oeplka went as high as 17th in the world in before a serious injury – but if there’s a venue at which he’s capable of rolling back the years, then it’s Dallas.

His huge serve will be aided by the Laykold surface, as it was in 2022 when he landed the title.

Overall, he’s got a 6-1 record in Dallas and, significantly, he’s 8-1 in tie-breaks here.

While Opelka hasn’t got into the winning groove yet in 2026, he did go close to upsetting seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the second round of the Australian Open, eventually losing in five sets.

Across his six matches in Australia, he lost serve only four times and wasn’t broken in four of those encounters.

Another of his losses Down Under was to Paul, which is no disgrace.

If Opelka beats Aleksandar Kovacevic, I’m sure he’ll be a tough test for defending champion Denis Shapovalov in round two and a small bet at 40s looks worth a try.

IEB+ Argentina Open

• Buenos Aires, Argentina (outdoor clay)

The ‘Golden Swing’ of claycourt tournaments in South America begins this week and one obvious thing stands out when looking at the outright market.

The top two in the betting – number one seed Francisco Cerundolo and defending champion Joao Fonseca – are both the top half and therefore cannot meet in the final.

That immediately sends me to look at the bottom half of the draw in search of some value.

Luciano Darderi is the man seeded to make the final but I much prefer SEBASTIAN BAEZ.

The Argentine was one of the eyecatchers of the first month of the season Down Under where he won three out of three at the United Cup, including against top-10 star Taylor Fritz, and then helped this column make a few beans when making the final in Auckland.

Now he gets the chance to move back onto his favourite clay surface and does so in front of a home crowd.

While admittedly his record at this tournament isn’t the best, Baez is a proven performer on the Golden Swing having produced some excellent results over the past three years.

Last season he won in Rio and finished runner-up in Santiago, while in 2024 he won both of those events. And in 2023, he was champion at the now-defunct Cordoba event, meaning he’s captured a title in this part of the season three years running.

And it’s not like the conditions in Buenos Aires have undermined him for he’s been a winner on the Challenger Tour here – that event takes place on the same complex, if not the same courts – while he also succeeded in the Argentine capital on the Futures Tour many years ago.

With a first-round bye, Baez only needs to win three matches to make the final and in what is the weaker half, that looks perfectly doable.

I wouldn’t normally put as player up at 13/2 each way but I do think there’s a strong chance he rewards his backers with a payout for making the final so this is the approach I’ll take in Buenos Aires.

Posted at 21:10 GMT on 08/02/26

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