Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for Rome Masters

Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters

1pt e.w. Alex de Minaur at 33/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Lorenzo Musetti at 33/1 (General)

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Internazionali BNL d’Italia

• Rome, Italy (outdoor clay)

The stars of the ATP Tour head to Rome this week but one will get nearly all the attention.

This event sees the return of Jannik Sinner following the end of his three-month ban from the sport, imposed following a failed drugs test last year.

Views of his suspension varied wildly, some feeling he should not have been banned at all given his accepted explanation; others felt a three-month ban was way too lenient, particularly given it came in a period in which he missed no Grand Slam tournament.

Whatever your personal view, all we’re really concerned with here is how he’ll perform.

Sinner was last seen at January’s Australian Open where he won the title but three months away from competitive action has to take some sort of effect. Remember, he wasn’t even allowed to practise with other pros until last month.

The Italian has actually maintained his world number one status during his absence, which says much about how some of his closest rivals have performed recently.

Perhaps with that in mind, the bookies have Sinner chalked up as favourite but, for me, he’s way too short.

Even putting the huge potential for rustiness to one side, Sinner has never been past the last eight here and also faces a really difficult draw.

A likely opener against clay specialist Mariano Navone is no gimme, while the in-form trio of Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Francisco Cerundolo and Casper Ruud may all need to be beaten just to reach the semi-finals.

Given all that, I don’t think Sinner describing this as a “very low expectation tournament” is simply about reducing the pressure.

What I do think is that odds-on quotes about Sinner making the last four are massively disrespectful to those names.

That top quarter looks very difficult to call though so my interest is instead piqued by Q2.

It is led, ranking-wise, by Taylor Fritz but my preference is to side with ALEX DE MINAUR.

The Australian has shown much better form and really looks to have got to grips with the different challenges clay throws up.

De Minaur, who has long based himself in Spain where the claycourts dominate, was a semi-finalist in Monte Carlo and a quarter-finalist in Barcelona, both events which play slow, like the conditions provided by the Foro Italico in the Eternal City.

If the seedings play out, Felix Auger-Aliassime (an early loser at a Challenger event last week), Tommy Paul and Fritz would be his opponents before the last four. To me, that looks a decent draw.

His excellent retrieval skills and run-all-day attitude should work well in Rome and I’m happy to back him each way at 33/1.

I also want to mention what looks a silly price in this section.

Jakub Mensik was a quarter-finalist in Madrid and frankly he should have beaten Cerundolo in that match.

Yes, the slicker altitude conditions helped his game there, but there’s no way he should be on offer here at 500/1.

Such quotes are disappearing at time of writing so may not be available by the time you read this but even 150s is worth considering, if you aren’t convinced by my De Minaur argument.

Turning to the bottom half of the draw and we find second favourite Carlos Alcaraz.

The reigning French Open champion made a flying start to the clay season, winning in Monte Carlo and finishing runner-up in Barcelona.

However, he suffered a hamstring/groin injury in the latter final and subsequently missed Madrid. Yes, it’s now two weeks on but we can’t be sure how his fitness is and with his Roland Garros title defence now less than three weeks away, any niggle is surely going to be treated with extreme caution.

Getting involved with the Spaniard at 11/4 carries too much risk for me, especially when you also consider this will be only his second visit to Rome – and he lost to Fabian Marozsan two years ago.

Madrid finalist Jack Draper could take advantage in quarter three but I remain wary about backing the Briton to go back-to-back.

He has been better physically so far in 2025 but I’m sure even he will still be wary about his previously fragile body and won’t want to over-reach with the French Open looming.

Holger Rune is arguably a better bet in this section but the Dane has had physical issues of his own of late, pulling out mid-match in both Monte Carlo (when backed here) and Madrid.

I’ll instead head to Q4 where home hope LORENZO MUSETTI looks to hold a great chance.

This event provided his big breakthrough in 2020 when he qualified as a teenager and then beat both Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori in the main draw. It’s also his home tournament so motivation will be high.

More importantly, form is excellent. I’m still regretting not backing the Italian in Monte Carlo where he fought hard to reach the final, defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas and De Minaur en route. He was also a set up on Alcaraz in the final before running out of gas.

He almost produced another final run in Madrid but having posted a series of straight-sets wins, he was beaten by nemesis Draper for the fourth time in four meetings in the semis.

Maybe Draper will prove the problem again here, although I’ve already explained why he might not be around come the last four this week.

Q4 rivals include Alex Zverev, who let us down in Madrid when he lost to Cerundolo, and Tsitsipas.

Both have strong record here – Zverev is a two-time champion and Tsitsipas has one final and two semis on his record.

I did consider Tsitsipas at 40/1 but he was injured in Barcelona and lost to Musetti in Madrid so my preference here is the home hope, who also looks to have the better early draw.

Posted at 1330 BST on 06/05/25

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