Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for Marrakech, Bucharest and Houston

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Yannick Hanfmann in the Grand Prix Hassan II at 11/1 (Betfred)

0.5pt e.w. Vit Kopriva in the Grand Prix Hassan II at 25/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Pedro Martinez in the Tiriac Open at 25/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Alex Michelsen in the Fayez Sarofim & Co US Clay Court Championship at 11/1 (General)

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Grand Prix Hassan II

• Marrakech, Morocco (outdoor clay)

They play at around 460m above sea level in Marrakech, in the foothills of the Atlas Mountains.

Therefore, a long-term readers will know, I’m keen on looking for a player (or players) who have a proven track record in altitude conditions where ball control is crucial – it’s easy to hit the ball long with the thinner air making it ‘fly’.

Temperatures rising above 30C later in the week also suggest conditions will be relatively quick for a claycourt event which means it’s not simply your regular dirtballers who should be considered here.

Albert Ramos-Vinolas was my go-to man over the years at altitude events such as this but with the Spaniard now retired, I’ve often turned instead to YANNICK HANFMANN, the eighth seed this week.

That proved a wise decision in Santiago last month where the German reached the final as a 25/1 shot.

Sadly, he’s not that price again this week but I’m still keen on Hanfmann at 11/1 given these conditions look ideal for his game.

Hanfmann beat top seed Francisco Cerundolo in Santiago, as well as fourth seed Camilo Ugo Carabelli. That was his third ATP Tour final and both of the others also came at significant altitude – in Kitzbuhel and Gstaad.

The 34-year-old has only played Miami since Santiago and he managed to qualify there before losing in three sets to rising star Rafael Jodar.

In Marrakech, Hanfmann starts off against Jesper de Jong and will then likely face Quentin Halys, neither of whom should strike fear into potential backers, or indeed the player himself.

The main issue in siding with Hanfmann looks to be the presence of top seed and defending champion Luciano Darderi in the same quarter.

Darderi was the man who won that Santiago final but it was a close affair – 7-6 7-5 – and it’s not difficult to see that result being reversed.

Darderi is the 3/1 favourite but I’d much rather side with Hanfmann at more than three times the price.

In the bottom half, I’m going to pick out a longer shot and that man is VIT KOPRIVA.

The Czech was an eyecatcher on the recent South American claycourt ‘Golden Swing’.

He beat Matteo Berrettini en route to the quarter-finals in Buenos Aires and then made the semis in Rio, only losing in a final-set tie-break to eventual champion Tomas Martin Etcheverry.

Admittedly both of those events were played in slower conditions than will be on show here, but Kopriva has performed at altitude on the second-tier Challenger Tour in the past, reaching the final and the semis in Bad Waltersdorf, which is encouraging.

Kopriva does have a potentially awkward opener against Hamad Medjedovic to deal with.

The Serb has just enjoyed a good week at the Naples Challenger where he emerged as champion. However, he was playing the final on Sunday afternoon which means he’s got a quick turnaround to very different conditions to deal with, not to mention possible fatigue.

Alexandre Muller, a former finalist here, is another I considered at a big price and he’s also in quarter three, one led by fourth seed Tomas Machac, although the Czech always seems to be injured and he certainly retires an awful lot.

2025 runner-up Tallon Griekspoor and the aforementioned Berrettini are others in the bottom half who could have a say this week but, at 25/1, I think Kopriva is worth some loose change.

Tiriac Open

• Bucharest, Romania (outdoor clay)

The field in Bucharest looks weak with no top-35 player featuring.

The top two seeds are Gabriel Diallo and Adrian Mannarino, both of whom should struggle in the likely sluggish conditions – plenty of forecast rain is set to slow things down even more.

I’m also more than happy to take on third seed and tournament favourite Fabian Marozsan, given he’s won just one of his last seven matches. There’s no way I want to back him at 11/2.

So, who do I want to side with?

Well, I wouldn’t rule out Mariano Navone and Sebastian Baez winning this week. They are proper clay sorts who should find conditions to their liking - both have played in the final here before.

The problem is neither is bigger than 7/1 and with recent form far from impressive, I’d be taking something of a leap of faith backing either.

With a lot of question marks surrounding the market leaders, I think this is a tournament where it’s worth taking a chance on a long shot and the man I have in mind is PEDRO MARTINEZ.

The veteran Spaniard has been to the quarter-finals here in each of the last two years, beating Miomir Kecmanovic in 2024. Last season, injury halted his run after he’d defeated former French Open champion Stan Wawrinka.

Notably, unlike most of the field, Martinez has stayed on the clay since the Golden Swing in South America, during which he reached the last eight in Buenos Aires.

Last week he made the quarter-finals of the Alicante Challenger and while he would probably have preferred to have beaten Pablo Carreno Busta at that stage, that loss will have given him the chance to bed in better in Bucharest.

Naples finalist Daniel Altmaier is up first which could be tricky but the German may well be jaded after last week’s efforts and, in any case, Martinez has won both previous meetings with him.

Marozsan could follow at the quarter-final stage but his form doesn’t put me off backing Martinez at 25/1.

Fayez Sarofim & Co US Clay Court Championship

• Houston, USA (outdoor clay)

The clay in the US has rarely played like its European counterpart and conditions will be much quicker here than in Bucharest.

Big servers Ben Shelton, Reilly Opelka, Jack Sock and John Isner are all on the recent roll of honour here, with Shelton back for more as the top seed in 2026.

In fact, seven of the eight seeds are American, with Frances Tiafoe another former champion among them.

Tiafoe has a fine record here – he’s played in the last three finals – and certainly warrants respect at 15/2.

However, I’m ready to take him on in the bottom quarter with a player who impressed me during the recent hardcourt swing and that’s ALEX MICHELSEN.

The 21-year-old made the last 16 in both Indian Wells and Miami, beating three seeds across those tournaments, namely Taylor Fritz, Ugo Humbert and Cameron Norrie.

However, perhaps his most impressive display was against world number two Jannik Sinner in Miami where he lost narrowly but certainly caused the Italian all sorts of problems with his strong serving and shot-making from the baseline.

Clearly Michelsen must deal with a change of conditions now but, as already highlighted, this isn’t going to be a massive grind and Michelsen should win plenty of cheap points on serve.

While Michelsen’s clay experience is fairly limited, his movement was still good enough to win the Estoril Challenger on this surface last year.

The American made the quarter-finals here 12 months ago, beating Learner Tien in the process, so I think there’s plenty of his favour at the moment and it looks time to strike while the iron is hot.

Back him at 11/1.

Posted at 18:35 GMT on 29/03/26

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