Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for Bastad, Gstaad and Los Cabos

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Sebastian Ofner in the Nordea Open at 16/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)

0.5pt e.w. Cristian Garin in the Nordea Open at 20/1 (Betfred)

0.5pt e.w. Kamil Majchrzak in the EFG Swiss Open at 18/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt e.w. Nikoloz Basilashvili in the EFG Swiss Open at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred)

0.5pt e.w. Aleksandar Kovacevic in the Mifel Open at 25/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Nordea Open

• Bastad, Sweden (outdoor clay)

As you might imagine post-Wimbledon, the fields on the ATP Tour this week aren’t the greatest.

In Europe, it’s time for the claycourters to re-emerge – the get two more weeks to do their thing before heading onto the hardcourts.

Here in Bastad, where they play down on the coast, they have at least attracted four top-40 players, including top seed Francisco Cerundolo and defending champion Nuno Borges.

Cerundolo, a winner here in 2022, will likely triumph again if he’s able to rediscover his clay form of two or three months ago. He made the semis in Munich and Madrid but when he travelled to the French Open as a potential dark horse, he duly lost miserably in round one.

He arrives here having lost four on the spin, although a return to his favoured red dirt may well revive him.

That said, I see little value in backing the Argentine at 5/2.

Neither am I keen on second seed Tallon Griekspoor, who followed up his recent title win in Mallorca with a first-round defeat at Wimbledon.

Borges could repeat, although anyone backing him needs to realise he’s only won three matches in a row on one occasion in 2025. He’ll need four on the spin to triumph here and the last time he did that was, you guessed it, in Bastad 12 months ago.

None of the high seeds makes great appeal in price terms so I’m going to throw a couple of darts.

In the top half, SEBASTIAN OFNER looks worth a try.

The Austrian has been in good form in the past few months.

Starting on the clay, he qualified in Rome before going on to beat Frances Tiafoe in the main draw. There was also a semi-final in Geneva where Borges and Karen Khachanov were defeated.

And, once he’d moved onto grass, Ofner upset 13th seed Tommy Paul at Wimbledon. Heading back to his preferred clay, confidence should be high.

The worry has to be his 0-3 record against Cerundolo, his potential quarter-final opponent, although the Argentine may well have to face compatriot Mariano Navone first and that looks a very tricky opener which will feature two of the top three in the outright market (with some firms).

Down in the bottom half, I’m slightly tempted to get with CRISTIAN GARIN.

The former top-20 star used to win this sort of claycourt event fairly often – he has five ATP titles to his name.

He’s slipped down the rankings in recent years but form coming in here is strong with the Chilean having focused on building a winning record on the Challenger Tour.

Two titles in tennis’ ‘second division’ plus two other semi-final runs mean he’s won 20 of his last 25 matches at all levels.

Of course, he’s stepping up here but this is one of the weaker tour-level fields you’ll see and he’s landed in a pretty soft section of the draw. The leap should not be too great.

Opening foe Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won just two of his last 11 matches, losing the last five in straight sets. Botic van de Zandschulp is likely to follow but he’s struggled for form for some time now.

Borges is the other seed in the quarter but I’ve already picked holes in his chances, plus he’s got the added pressure of defending 250 ranking points – he’s looking at a notable ranking drop if he falls early.

It’s minimum stakes for me but Garin may have a better chance than odds of 20/1 suggest.

EFG Swiss Open

• Gstaad, Switzerland (outdoor clay)

There’s only one top-30 player in Gstaad this week and, frankly, Casper Ruud should win – as long as he’s fully fit.

The Norwegian hasn’t played since the French Open where he struggled with a knee problem during a second-round loss to Nuno Borges.

He’s long disliked the grass so, given the circumstances, it was no surprise to see him withdraw from Wimbledon.

However, he was pictured back out on the clay more than a week ago and Ruud is a player who has long targeted these post-Wimbledon clay events.

He won three weeks in a row in July 2021 and successfully defended his title here in Gstaad in 2022.

This is a good time to mention that this venue is one of the highest, in altitude terms, on the tour, sitting more than 1,000m above sea level.

For those who don’t know, the thinner air makes the balls ‘fly’ that bit more and control becomes very important – it’s easy to send balls long in these conditions.

It often pays to find players comfortable in altitude conditions with those who have proved they can win in them very much to the fore. Ruud, who has also won in Kitzbuhel, Geneva and Santiago during his career, obviously fits the bill.

At his proper level, Ruud is one of the best players in the world on this surface – remember he’s twice reached the Roland Garros final – and he could make mincemeat of this field.

The clear concern is that injury – how rusty will he be and is it still bothering him?

When you are backing a player at 7/4, you kind of want to be convinced about his fitness and I’m not sure we can be on this occasion.

An alternative in the top half is KAMIL MAJCHRZAK, the Pole who has just reached the last 16 at Wimbledon.

What makes particular appeal is his recent results at altitude.

On the main tour, he made the semi-finals in Marrakech in April before moving on to Madrid where he won the Challenger Tour title.

Drawn into a weak-looking second quarter where Pedro Martinez and Laslo Djere are the seeds, Majchrzak could go deep at 18/1.

In the bottom half, NIKOLOZ BASILASHVILI is a player who, I believe, could well out-perform his odds.

Admittedly, it’s four years since the Georgian last won at this level, although it’s interesting to note that success came in Munich, which is also at a significant altitude. He’s also made the final in Kitzbuhel in the past.

Of course, we also want to see good recent signs but they are there too.

Basilashvili beat seventh seed Lorenzo Musetti at Wimbledon, while during the claycourt season he finished runner-up at the Bordeaux Challenger.

An expected route to the semis of Arthur Cazaux, an out-of-sorts Tomas Etcheverry and Arthur Rinderknech looks a decent one.

If he progresses that far, second seed Alexander Bublik could await.

He’s played some cracking stuff in recent months but his Wimbledon first-round defeat was a timely reminder of why you don’t want to be backing him at short prices and the Kazakh is the second favourite this week.

Mifel Open

• Los Cabos, Mexico (outdoor hard)

The road to the US Open starts on the hardcourts of Los Cabos, Mexico, this week but you will rarely see a weaker field than this.

Organisers have at least attracted Andrey Rublev to the Pacific coast but we’ve also got world number 90 Adam Walton seeded, while 183rd-ranked James McCabe got direct entry into the main draw.

Now, we may well see the top two seeds – Rublev and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – reach the final.

Rublev has improved after an iffy start to the campaign, reaching the last 16 of both the French Open and Wimbledon, as well as the final in Hamburg, while Davidovich Fokina has enjoyed a strong season and already reached two hardcourt finals. Notably, one of them was in Acapulco where they use the same Solflex surface.

However, you do wonder how big the motivation is for such players at this time of year – there’s still much tennis to be played before that US Open.

I’d suggest there could be many other players taking this more seriously, sensing a real opportunity to win or at least reach an ATP Tour final.

Sadly, there aren’t any outstanding candidates to claim the title from further down the market, although one man who could be worth chancing is ALEKSANDAR KOVECEVIC.

The American has endured a rough ride in recent months, going just 5-11 since leaving the hardcourts in Miami in March.

However, his record prior to that is significant given that he was then playing his tennis on hardcourts.

Kovacevic was the runner-up in Marseille, while he also triumphed twice on the Challenger Tour in the first quarter of 2025.

Essentially, this is player who enjoys this surface and so a return to the hardcourts could be just what the doctor ordered.

Significantly, the weakness of the field means he gets the chance to bed in which is ideal given wins have been at a premium of late.

Kovacevic starts against Lebanon’s Hady Habib, a player of little experience at this level, while McCabe or local wild card Luis Carlos Alvarez would follow. Quentin Halys is the other seed in this section, so it looks winnable.

Kovacevic has reached the last eight here in each of the past two seasons, with Cam Norrie, then the world number 13, one of his victims in 2023.

In summary, throwing some loose change at Kovacevic, a 25/1 shot, could prove worthwhile.

Preview posted at 2100 BST on 13/07/25

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