Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour predictions and best bets for the Indian Wells Masters

Tennis betting tips: BNP Paribas Open

1pt e.w. Matteo Berrettini at 25/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Reilly Opelka at 60/1 (Unibet)

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BNP Paribas Open

• Indian Wells, USA (outdoor hard)

We may not have a tennis calendar for 2022 yet but the sport takes another step back towards normality this week.

Having been the first tournament to be cancelled due to the COVID pandemic in March 2020 and then postponed earlier this year, the Indian Wells Masters 1000 event last took place two and a half years ago.

It has certainly been missed, be it by the players for its lucrative worth and top-class facilities, or the fans, who know this is arguably the biggest tournament of the season outside the Slams.

Sadly for those fans, four of the world’s top 10 won’t be in attendance this year with the ‘Big Three’ of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer all absent.

Between them, that trio have won 13 of the last 16 titles with only Ivan Ljubicic (2010), Juan Martin del Potro (2018) and Dominic Thiem (2019) breaking the stranglehold.

Clearly someone else will add their name to that list this year but one usual path to finding that champion is something of a dead-end for punters.

‘Course form’ usually plays a significant part in my research but this time around it struggles to separate the leading title contenders in any meaningful way.

The top 10 seeds hold a solitary quarter-final appearance between them (Hubert Hurkacz in 2019), while of the others only Alex Zverev has ever made it as far as the last 16.

What we can deduce from course form is the sort of player who has done well here in the past.

A big server fits the bill, only with a decent weapon to back it up with such as a crushing forehand – think Del Potro or Milos Raonic, who has consistently performed well here over the years.

The reason for that is that the drier desert air aids those serves, the ball having the ability to cut through it that bit quicker than in more humid conditions.

The Plexipave courts, however, are actually pretty slow and make the ball kick up rather than skid through. Essentially, you get a high bounce which is handy for those who like to line up a big groundstroke.

That’s pretty ideal for the likes of Raonic (sadly out injured this year) and John Isner. Both win plenty of free points on serve but when the ball does come back that get the time to line up the powerful groundies which can also do damage.

I’ve backed 2012 runner-up Isner here on several occasions in the past.

I was tempted again but he’s in a tough section of the draw and, for me, his price of 66/1 isn’t big enough this time around.

• CLICK HERE to back Matteo Berrettini with Sky Bet

He may have to beat Jannik Sinner, MATTEO BERRETTINI and Alex Zverev just to make the last four and that looks a big ask, even for a player who will feel comfortable in these conditions.

Berrettini’s all-round game is frankly better and while he’s one of the big seeds yet to win a match at this venue (two visits, two defeats) I do feel he has the game style which should produce results here.

That big serve helped Berrettini reach the Wimbledon final in the summer and, after a post-Wimbledon injury break, the Italian looked to be returning to his best form at the US Open where he made the quarter-finals before losing from a set up against Djokovic.

He’s since won a match at the Laver Cup and should be ready to give his all in what is the last outdoor tournament of the season.

Zverev - winner in Cincinnati and semi-finalist at the US Open - and Stefanos Tsitsipas are the big threats in this half of the draw but neither is close to Berrettini’s price of 25/1. It’s too big a gap and I feel the fifth seed is a value call.

No value in Medvedev

Newly-crowned US Open champ Daniil Medvedev is the top seed and title favourite.

He heads up the opposite half of the draw and the only stick to beat him with is that poor record in the Californian desert – he’s 3-3 and is yet to go past the last 32.

That’s far from insurmountable but when betting at 2/1 I want to be a little more sure about my man being able to handle the conditions.

Andy Murray is a star name who openly admits he’s never really got to grips with Indian Wells – he’s never won the title and has a string of early-round losses on his record – and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see one or more of this new generation struggle to adapt to the venue.

While far from convinced that will be the case with Medvedev, I do suspect he’d prefer the courts a bit quicker than they are and I can’t back him at 2/1.

Casper Ruud is one I considered as an alternative.

Last week’s title in San Diego may well turn out to be a breakthrough moment for the Norwegian, who had previously only really been regarded as a serious contender on clay - certainly by me, anyway.

He’ll need to find a higher level to win here and I suspect that will be beyond him but I can see Ruud continuing to improve on this surface and with that will come an even higher ranking.

I’ll put him down as one to watch in this sort of event next season rather than back him now.

Instead I’m going to take a punt on REILLY OPELKA.

• CLICK HERE to back Reilly Opelka with Sky Bet

He’s another who fits the bill in terms of game type for these conditions.

The huge serve-forehand combination will look to dominate and he certainly managed that in Toronto where he made his first Masters final, beating Roberto Bautista Agut and Tsitsipas along the way.

He’s since been to the last 16 of the US Open.

Opelka lost that Toronto final to Medvedev and it may well be that result is repeated here should they meet in the last 16.

But again, the price of 60/1 looks too tempting not to have an interest.

In terms of Medvedev, we’ve seen plenty of players suffer a dip following maiden Grand Slam titles in the past – you only have to think of Dominic Thiem, last year’s champion in New York – and so I’m prepared to take a chance on Opelka at the price.

Published at 0700 BST on 07/10/21

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