Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour Open 13 Provence, Delray Beach Open & IEB+ Argentina Open

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

0.5pt e.w. Hamad Medjedovic in Open 13 Provence at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)

0.5pt e.w. Lorenzo Sonego in Open 13 Provence at 25/1 (bet365)

1pt e.w. Miomir Kecmanovic in the Delray Beach Open at 14/1 (BetVictor)

1pt win Lorenzo Musetti in the IEB+ Argentina Open at 9/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt e.w. Mariano Navone in the IEB+ Argentina Open at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Open 13 Provence

• Marseille, France (indoor hard)

You tend to get some of the quickest conditions on the ATP Tour in Marseille and so it’s easy to see why the market is shaped the way it is.

Top seed Daniil Medvedev prefers it quick – although this is probably faster than ideal for him – while defending champion Ugo Humbert and Hubert Hurkacz, the 2023 winner, both have strong serves which should win them plenty of free points in the south of France.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is also here. He’s probably the biggest server on the ATP Tour these days and should be very difficult to break in these conditions.

Still, they are all 8/1 or shorter – and you can throw 2018 winner Karen Khachanov into that bracket too – and I’m not enthused enough by such odds.

My oft-used tactic of trying to find some value among the long shots served us well last season, although it’s brought some truly miserable results so far in 2025, it has to be said.

However, it’s an approach which is pretty much guaranteed to produce a losing run at some stage (I’m trying to stay confident here).

Anyway, I’m sticking on the same route in Marseille and will first throw a dart in the shape of HAMAD MEDJEDOVIC.

He’s got that big serve which should work well here, plus a crunching forehand.

The Serb has used those weapons to good effect indoors over the past 15 months.

He won the season-ending Next Gen ATP Finals in 2023 and finished last season by reaching the final in Belgrade.

Rather than heading to Australia, Medjedovic started 2025 indoors, winning a Challenger title in Portugal, while he then went and beat Holger Rune in Davis Cup – in Denmark.

In short, he’s bedded into indoor conditions better than anyone and the fast surface here should aid his game.

The second quarter isn’t the strongest section of the draw, although it does contain former champion Khachanov, a player who enjoyed the indoor swing last autumn.

However, Medjedovic looks the sort of challenge which could catch the Russian cold – Khachanov hasn’t played since losing to Alex Michelsen in the third round of the Australian Open.

At 40/1, he looks worth a small punt.

Humbert and Hurkacz do look the ones to beat in the bottom half of the draw but both have tricky potential opponents in their path.

Humbert will open his title defence against either Alexander Bublik – always a threat when it plays quick – or Richard Gasquet, who will be playing this tournament for the final time and should be motivated.

As for Hurkacz, after a busy week in Rotterdam where he made the last four, he’ll face either Zhizhen Zhang or Quentin Halys first.

The latter was tipped up on these pages in Montpellier recently when I highlighted his strengths on a fast court, plus the fact he’d won 33 of his previous 46 matches at all levels, but he got injured and had to quit his opening encounter. He also missed Rotterdam due to the issue.

If fully fit, Halys could go well, as could fellow Frenchman Benjamin Bonzi, a runner-up here in 2023 and semi-finalist the year before.

I was tempted to give him a try but Bonzi has been found wanting against the better players of late, struggling to stay truly competitive, and that’s too off-putting for me.

Instead, I think a price of 25/1 about LORENZO SONEGO is a little on the large side.

The Italian made the quarter-finals of the Australian Open so should be in confident mood right now.

Some of his best results have come on quick surfaces – think the grass of Antalya in 2021, indoors in Metz in 2022 and last year in Winston-Salem, prior to the US Open. He’s also been a finalist in Eastbourne and Vienna.

Sonego has held serve in 89% of his service games so far in 2025 and if he can continue to serve that well, that number should only increase as the week goes on.

He’ll face Botic van de Zandschulp first before meeting either Bonzi or a qualifier/lucky loser. Then could come Humbert in the last eight and their head-to-head stands at 3-3.

I think that’s a pretty decent draw for a player in good nick and so 22/1 gets the green light.

Delray Beach Open

• Delray Beach, USA (outdoor hard)

The Plexipave courts of this Floridian venue are fairly average in terms of pace but this is a venue at which the big servers have tended to go well.

Taylor Fritz (twice), Hubert Hurkacz and Reilly Opelka have all won here in the past five years, wile go back further and you find the likes of Sam Querrey, Ivo Karlovic and Kevin Anderson on the roll of honour.

Given this, it’s no surprise to see Fritz chalked up as a hot favourite.

He’s looking to complete a title hat-trick this year, although it’s not been the greatest start to the season for the American, who was beaten in the third round of the Australian Open by veteran Gael Monfils and lost in the last 16 in Dallas last week.

Fritz is into a best of 11/5 following the withdrawal of second seed Tommy Paul and while I’m sure he’ll have his backers, that’s a bit short for me.

Paul’s absence has seen the bottom half rejigged with Marcos Giron filling his slot at the very bottom of the draw.

I think that could create an opportunity for MIOMIR KECMANOVIC.

The Serb was the runner-up to Fritz here in 2023 so has shown a propensity for these courts.

Most importantly, he’s in good form having made a strong start to the new season.

Kecmanovic beat Hurkacz en route to the last 32 of the Australian Open, having already made the semis at the warm-up event in Adelaide.

Last week in Dallas he was a first-round loser, although his narrow three-set loss to Denis Shapovalov looks a lot better a few days on given the Canadian has gone on to reach the final.

Both Giron and potential second-round foe Yoshihito Nishioka were both mid-match injury withdrawals in Dallas last week so I think there’s plenty of potential down in the fourth quarter.

Alex Michelsen is the highest seed remaining in the bottom half of the draw but he’s short enough at 8/1.

Indeed, Cameron Norrie may have something to say in the third quarter.

He looked to be playing pretty well in Dallas but couldn’t quite get the better of Opelka’s serve, the American coming from a set down to win in Texas.

Norrie won here in 2022 (and was also a semi-finalist in 2021) and while he struggled in 2024, there have been a few signs – including a quarter-final run in Hong Kong – that he is getting things together again.

Odds of 14/1 maybe worth considering.

Back in the top half, I’m intrigued to see how Learner Tien deals with the greater attention he’s now going to receive.

The American was one of the breakout stars at the Australian Open, defeating Daniil Medvedev en route to the last 16.

His return game was an impressive factor during his successful Challenger Tour days and while he initially struggled to replicate that at main-tour level, that wasn’t the case in Melbourne.

The seeds in Tien’s section aren’t the toughest – Matteo Arnaldi and Brandon Nakashima, who has been below par so far this season – but after Melbourne I knew we wouldn’t be getting a great price and evens just doesn’t quite cut it for me given he’s in the harder half of the draw.

IEB+ Argentina Open

• Buenos Aires, Argentina (outdoor hard)

It’s been a pleasure to watch Diego Schwartzman on clay over the years and ‘El Peque’ (shorty) fully deserves one last day in the sun this week.

The Argentine is calling it a day at the age of 32 and will, fittingly, play his final tournament in the city of his birth.

I very much doubt he’ll be replicating his 2021 title success here and I’m not exactly convinced about Alex Zverev and Holger Rune’s chances either.

The European pair are the star men on this year’s ‘Golden Swing’ of claycourt tournaments in South America, one which has been reduced this year to three weeks following the withdrawal of the Cordoba Open from the calendar.

Both will be playing on clay for the first time since last summer, with Rune coming in having spent the past couple of weeks playing indoors in Europe. In addition, he was clearly suffering with illness in Rotterdam last week.

The other thing I’d say about the big names here is I wonder if this is really just a prep run for next week’s tournament in Rio.

The trip to Brazil offers twice the number of ranking points (and more money) as it’s at 500 level, as opposed to this 250 event. It’s also going to feature almost exactly the same field.

Get a feel for the surface this week, really go for it next week. I wouldn’t be surprised if that was the attitude.

The majority in the field are clay specialists, many from South America and a few from Italy and Spain.

In what are some of the slowest conditions on the ATP Tour, this looks an event for the grinders.

Facundo Diaz Acosta was the surprise champion 12 months ago and he’s back to defend his crown, one of eight Argentines in the main draw before qualifying ends.

However, at the prices, I think it’s worth giving his compatriot MARIANO NAVONE a go.

He was the breakout star of the 2024 Golden Swing, reaching the final in Rio.

And he was soon backing that run up in Europe, finishing runner-up in Bucharest a few months later.

Overall, he went 27-14 on clay at all levels in 2024, notching five top-50 wins.

He hasn’t played on clay since the Paris Olympics but this is his natural surface and I’m sure he’s been relishing a return to the red dirt – and his homeland – for some time.

OK, he’s done little of note so far in 2025 but he wasn’t expected to on the hardcourts of Australia. Having said that, taking Jack Draper to five sets in Melbourne was actually some sort of result.

It’s certainly a suggestion that he’s playing well enough to hit the ground running once he moves onto the clay.

Navone could certainly be a tricky first foe for Rune, especially if illness is still lingering in the Dane following his flight from Europe.

In what looks a pretty open event, it’s worth taking a small slice of the 40/1 available.

Up in the top half, I’ve been waiting to side with LORENZO MUSETTI on clay and so I’m not going to miss this opportunity.

The Italian, who recently made the third round of the Australian Open before losing to Ben Shelton, has left Europe to play here for good reason.

Clay is his best surface and his last appearance on it came at the Olympics where he beat both Alex Zverev and Taylor Fritz en route to the bronze medal.

That came hot on the heels of a runner-up effort in Umag and third-round appearance at the French Open where he led Novak Djokovic by two sets to one before fading.

Musetti has been here before – he was a quarter-finalist in 2023 – so will know what to expect in terms of conditions.

He’s now 2-1 up on Zverev having also beaten him post-Olympics in Vienna and should be considered a closer rival to the German than the odds suggest.

Back him at 9/1.

Posted at 2120 GMT on 09/02/25

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