Andy Schooler previews this week’s ATP tournaments in Rotterdam and Dallas and has four picks, ranging from 16/1 to 75/1.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Felix Auger-Aliassime in the ABN AMRO Open at 16/1 (bet365, BetVictor, Betfred)
0.5pt e.w. Tallon Griekspoor in the ABN AMRO Open at 75/1 (Unibet, BetMGM)
0.75pt e.w. Marcos Giron in the Dallas Open at 25/1 (General)
0.75pt e.w. Reilly Opelka in the Dallas Open at 22/1 (General)
ABN AMRO Open
- Rotterdam, Netherlands (indoor hard)
Six of the world’s top 13 will contest this week’s biggest event on the ATP Tour, the 500-level ABN AMRO Open in Rotterdam.
However, it may well prove worthwhile to look a little further down the market.
The field is led by Carlos Alcaraz, who returns to action less than two weeks after his exit from the Australian Open at the hands of Novak Djokovic.
While the Spaniard didn’t play badly that day, it’s hard to believe he left Australia anything but disappointed – he is still to make the semi-finals of the one Grand Slam he is yet to win.
Now he heads indoors where backing him at no bigger than 2/1 makes little appeal. After all, Alcaraz is yet to make the final of an indoor event at tour level, never mind actually win one.
I’m happy to swerve and am also prepared to take on the other high seeds.
Daniil Medvedev was very disappointing in Melbourne and there was nothing to suggest he’s ready to repeat his 2023 triumph here.
Alex de Minaur again played pretty well only to fall in miserable fashion once the quality of opponent was turned up and that has to be a concern in a strong field such as this.
Like Medvedev, Andrey Rublev exited early in Melbourne and he was also beaten by a qualifier in Montpellier last week which doesn’t bode particularly well as he bids to reclaim the title he won in 2021.
I’m instead going to go with two players from further down the market, starting in the top half with FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME.
The 2022 champion opted to play in Montpellier last week and it proved a good decision as marched to the title.
Some will be put off by that run the week before this bigger event but, with a first-round bye, FAA only needed to win four matches in southern France and his work wasn’t that taxing with only one set lost.
In any case, the Canadian has a strong track record of reaching back-to-back finals.
He’s twice done it during this indoor swing, finishing runner-up both here and in Marseille in 2020 before reaching both finals again in 2022, this time winning Rotterdam before losing in the French final.
He famously also won three tournaments in as many weeks at the back end of the 2022 season, again indoors.
Auger-Aliassime has always played his best tennis with a roof over his head when he can use his strong serve to full effect – last week he dropped his serve only twice in four matches.
He’s started this year strongly – as well as his Montpellier run, he was the champion in Adelaide last month.
FAA looks exactly the sort of foe who could topple Alcaraz – the pair are scheduled to meet in round two – and at 16/1, I reckon he’s worth backing each way.
In the opposite half of the draw, I’m going to have another go with TALLON GRIEKSPOOR.
I remember backing the Dutchman here 12 months ago at 50/1 only for him to lose in the semi-finals to eventual champion Jannik Sinner.
This year he’s an even bigger price – 66s – but he certainly has the potential to outperform those odds.
This is Griekspoor’s home event and he’s loved playing here over the past couple of years, making it to the last four on each occasion.
In total, he has five top-20 wins at this event in his career, including victories over Hubert Hurkacz last year and Alex Zverev in 2023.
Some players struggle to perform at their best level in front of a home crowd; Griekspoor rises to the occasion.
He was impressive at holding serve last year, playing a lot of tie-breaks on what was a fairly slick surface.
I doubt conditions will have changed too much but it was a bit of a worry that when doing my research, the tournament organisers told me they had switched to GreenSet this year (from Proflex) but GreenSet themselves said they weren’t the surface supplier.
Information age indeed.
Still, despite this cloud, I’m going to side with Griekspoor again.
Matteo Berrettini could be an awkward opener but Stefanos Tsitsipas and the aforementioned Medvedev have both made poor starts to 2025 so the seeds in this quarter could be tougher.
In short, I think that’s a decent enough draw for a 66/1 shot and I will back him accordingly.
Dallas Open
- Dallas, USA (indoor hard)
Rotterdam’s field is strong but Dallas’ is far from shabby.
The top American talent all heads to this indoor event, which is played on a fairly fast indoor Laykold court.
This is the tournament’s fourth edition and five of the six previous finalists have come from the host nation.
Americans Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton will contest this year’s final if the bookies’ odds play out.
However, Fritz arrives on the back of a disappointing loss to 38-year-old Gael Monfils at the Australian Open, while it’s only just over a week since Shelton made the semis in Melbourne and you wonder how much that took out of him.
I prefer to look at some of the bigger-priced Americans.
I’ll start with MARCOS GIRON in the bottom half.
His record in this tournament immediately caught the eye, with the Californian having finished runner-up to Tommy Paul last year. That came following a quarter-final appearance in 2023 and a semi-final run at the inaugural 2022 event.
All three of his ATP finals have come in his homeland, while he’s happy to play indoors with a semi-final reached in Antwerp during the autumn swing last season.
So far this term, Giron has made the quarter-finals in Adelaide and the third round of the Australian Open. On each occasion, it took the eventual champion to beat him (Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jannik Sinner respectively).
In short, this is a man who is in decent form and loves this event but is available at 25/1.
OK, part of that can be explained by his first-round draw which pits him against second seed Casper Ruud.
However, the Norwegian arrives from Davis Cup duty in Norway and will be making his debut in Dallas.
He’s not a player who should relish a faster-than-average indoor hardcourt and I would not be surprised were that contest to go the underdog’s way.
That would really open up a decent path for Giron with Frances Tiafoe (potential QF foe) not at his best indoors.
Moving onto the top half, it may well be worth taking a chance on REILLY OPELKA.
His massive serve will be a huge weapon in these conditions.
He's 6 foot 11 and doing this...
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 12, 2025
That is absurd, Reilly Opelka ✨@wwos • @espn • @eurosport • @wowowtennis • #AusOpen • #AO2025 pic.twitter.com/cyfrQR3Bcr
It certainly was in 2022 when he surged to the title.
Opelka has endured plenty of injury problems since then, hence the reason he’s available at 22/1 and needed a wild card to enter this year.
However, he’s already made an ATP final this season – in Brisbane where he upset Novak Djokovic.
Opelka also played well at the Australian Open, pushing seed Tomas Machac to a fifth set in their second-round encounter.
He banged down 40 aces that day (after hitting 38 in round one) and that delivery should win him plenty of free points this week.
It did three years ago when he faced only one break point in the tournament (and saved it).
His first two (likely) opponents were both away on Davis Cup duty thousands of miles away at the weekend. In contrast, Opelka has had almost three weeks to be ready for his clash with Alexander Shevchenko (Alex Michelsen is likely to follow).
Last year’s winner Paul could await in the last eight (Opelka won their only previous meeting) and Fritz in the semis.
However, I still think Opelka’s odds are too big at 22/1 - back him each way.
Posted at 1750 GMT on 02/02/25
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