Tennis betting tips: Adelaide International & ASB Classic preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Dan Evans in the Adelaide International at 22/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt e.w. Yannick Hanfmann in the Adelaide International at 40/1 (General)

1pt e.w Cameron Norrie in the ASB Classic at 13/2 (General)

1pt e.w. Gael Monfils in the ASB Classic at 11/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt e.w. Max Purcell in the ASB Classic at 33/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Adelaide International

• Adelaide, Australia (outdoor hard)

The week before a Grand Slam tournament always has the potential for a surprise or two and you only have to go back to this time last year to see that.

In 2023, the week prior to the Australian Open saw Soon-woo Kwon and Richard Gasquet emerge as champions at big prices. Something similar this week would be nice and there looks to be every chance.

I’ve never felt these are good weeks to be getting with the favourites, although it would appear the layers are struggling to find one in Adelaide this week - Coral/Ladbrokes have Tommy Paul, Nicolas Jarry and Sebastian Korda, the top three seeds, as 6/1 co-favourites.

All three get first-round byes so will only need to win four matches to land a bet – three if you are happy to back them each way, which is a possibility at the price.

Yet I’m not enthused by such prices.

Paul is coming in cold having only just arrived from the US, Jarry posted two wins at the United Cup but wasn’t convincing against lowly-ranked opponents, and Korda lost in the first round in Brisbane last week as he, once again, proved to be a disappointment when going off at a fairly short price.

And they aren’t my only concerns.

All three will be seeded at next week’s Australan Open so all will be fancying their chances of reaching the second week. Will they really want to be going all guns blazing at this 250-level event?

Having made the semis last year, Paul will be defending a stack of ranking points in Melbourne so I’m not at all convinced he’ll want a long week in Adelaide.

There’s also the injury effect to deal with in weeks such as these. Any slight niggle can lead to a withdrawal as a precaution for the looming, bigger event. Expect one or two to go that way this week.

Preference is instead to go with players at a chunky price, ones who look more likely to be busting a gut in attempt to claim a trophy.

I’ll start in the top half by backing DAN EVANS.

• Click here to back Dan Evans with Sky Bet

Now, admittedly this will be his first tournament back after tearing a calf muscle towards the end of last season, an injury which forced him to miss Great Britain’s Davis Cup quarter-final.

But, in some ways, that could be beneficial as he’ll want matches under his belt heading to Melbourne.

We don’t really know his fitness status but he was part of the GB squad at last week’s United Cup. With Cam Norrie in for singles and Neal Skupski for mixed doubles, Evans didn’t get a run-out. However, being around and training with his compatriots in Perth would have been a very worthwhile experience and should have set him up nicely for this week.

Key to my thinking in backing Evans is the fact he’s a proven fast-starter to a season.

He’s really enjoyed the opening part the season Down Under in the past with two of his four ATP finals coming in this very week of the campaign – he won in Melbourne in 2021 and was runner-up in Sydney back in 2017.

Evans also racked up an impressive 6-1 record at the now-defunct ATP Cup event so I feel there’s plenty to like about the Briton's chances.

He’s a former quarter-finalist here, too, losing out in a three-set battle with eventual champion Andrey Rublev in 2020.

Evans opens with a tricky contest against Aussie Rinky Hijikata, who made the quarter-finals in Brisbane last week, with the enigmatic Alexander Bublik likely to follow.

Lorenzo Musetti – beaten by Pavel Kotov in Hong Kong last week – is the other seed in the quarter and overall that’s not a bad draw for the 22/1 shot, who could face Paul in the semis.

A small-stakes play each way is the call.

The opposite half of the draw looks very competitive but also one where the big names can be taken on.

Jarry and Korda are both here but it’s not hard to make an argument for several, including former champion Thanasi Kokkinakis, Jiri Lehecka and Alexander Shevchenko, who looked good in Brisbane last week, pushing Holger Rune to three sets.

However, it is another Brisbane eyecatcher who gets my vote as a long shot and that’s YANNICK HANFMANN.

• Click here to back Yannick Hanfmann with Sky Bet

The German climbed into the top 50 last season off the back of some fine results on his favoured clay.

He’s hardly renowned for his hardcourt ability but he claimed a good win against Korda in the first round last week, when he served very well.

Given that result, he was probably disappointed to lose to James Duckworth in the following round but that contest went all the way to a final-set tie-break and Hanfmann again did pretty well on serve, producing 15 aces and being broken only twice.

This week he opens against Lorenzo Sonego, who struggled at the United Cup, going 0-3 in the event, two of the defeats coming in singles. Interestingly, Hanfmann won their only previous hardcourt match.

Were he to progress, Hanfmann would meet Korda for the second week running.

Tomas Etcheverry is the man seeded to be waiting in any quarter-final but I’d expect either Shevchenko or Yoshihito Nishioka, a former semi-finalist here, to get the better of the Argentine.

Again, that’s not a bad draw at all and while it’s certainly a long shot, odds of 40/1 are enough to tempt me in for a minimum-stakes punt.

ASB Classic

• Auckland, New Zealand (outdoor hard)

CAMERON NORRIE was raised in New Zealand so it should be no real surprise that he’s enjoyed playing in Auckland over the years.

He has registered a 7-3 record in his three appearances, making the final twice.

Now representing Great Britain, Norrie’s very first ATP final came at the ASB Tennis Centre, so that will give him great memories heading into this week, while he also finished runner-up here 12 months ago when much of the tournament had to be played indoors due to rain.

Norrie is clearly a player who doesn’t mind a deep week of tennis prior to a Grand Slam as he’s also twice made the Lyon final which comes just days before the start of Roland Garros.

That means four of his 14 career ATP finals – 29% - have come in the week before a major.

Norrie’s season is already up and running after he represented GB at the United Cup, where he beat Alex de Minaur, a result which looks very impressive given the Aussie has since beaten Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz and Alex Zverev.

• Click here to back Cameron Norrie with Sky Bet

Norrie did also lose to Fritz in Perth but that’s no disgrace and I feel he’s got a great chance this week.

As second seed, he’s only got a maximum of four matches to play and I’m not sure why he’s not the favourite to make the final on this side of the draw.

Instead, the layers have gone with Felix Auger-Aliassime but he’s clearly not 100% right now.

FAA was in Canada’s squad for the United Cup and had been due to play singles. However, having had to nurse a knee injury through the off-season he was replaced by Steven Diez, only making his seasonal-debut in a dead mixed-doubles rubber.

I can’t be having him as the tournament favourite this week and I wouldn’t be surprised were he to fall early or lose in the last four to Arthur Fils, a player I mentioned last week in my Hong Kong preview – he lost to eventual champion Andrey Rublev in three sets in the quarter-finals.

However, it’s Norrie I’m going with this week and at 13/2 he’s even got potential as an each-way bet, with half the odds still offering a decent return for a third final in his last four visits.

The top half is led by top seed Ben Shelton, who can be backed at 6/1, but he disappointed in Brisbane, losing to Roman Safiullin, while I’m also a little concerned about the renowned Auckland wind causing problems for him.

While his toss isn’t particularly high, he does like to throw the ball well into the court when serving and so the wind – often strong at this event – has the potential to throw him off course somewhat.

With the serve a huge part of the Shelton game, I’m prepared to take him on this week.

I will do so, primarily, by backing GAEL MONFILS.

The Frenchman enjoyed something of a renaissance in the second half of 2023, impressing during the last outdoor hardcourt swing in North America last summer.

He beat Stefanos Tsitsipas, De Minaur and Norrie and also took sets off Jannik Sinner and Rublev in that spell before claiming the title in Stockholm once the tour moved indoors.

Monfils is a player whose body has struggled throughout his career to hold up to the rigours of the tour and it’s usually a good time to back him when he’s fresh.

• Click here to back Gael Monfils with Sky Bet

The start of the year has proved an ideal time to do that – his body well rested following the off-season – and it’s notable that six of his 12 career titles have come in either January or February, including six of the last eight.

Three of his last seven runners-up finishes have also come in the same period of the campaign.

A former semi-finalist here, Monfils will face Shelton in round two if he defeats Fabian Marozsan in his opener.

It is a tricky quarter which also includes last week’s Hong Kong tip, Roberto Bautista Agut, and a player who made the semis of that event, Sebastian Ofner.

So, while I wouldn’t back Monfils at much lower than 11/1, I do feel those odds are worth a try.

Finally, I can’t resist a small bet on MAX PURCELL in the weak-looking second quarter.

The Australian is another who performed well on outdoor hardcourts lasts summer, producing a surprise run to the quarter-finals of the Cincinnati Masters, where Casper Ruud was among his victims. He also made the last eight in Winston-Salem.

• Click here to back Max Purcell with Sky Bet

His 2024 campaign hardly started badly either. While he did make a first-round exit in Brisbane, taking a set off eventual runner-up Holger Rune was no mean feat. He also won three doubles matches so should have bedded in on the GreenSet surface which is again in use this week.

His attacking game is well suited to the faster-than-average surface and there’s really not a great deal to beat in this section.

Local wild card Kiranpal Pannu, the world number 716, is Purcell’s opening foe and, assuming he wins, Taro Daniel or Aleksandar Vukic will follow. Both men suffered heavy defeats in the opening week of the season.

Francisco Cerundolo is the man seeded to make the semis from this quarter but he’s more of a claycourter and failed to break serve when beaten by Bautista Agut in his season-opener last week.

Maybe Purcell screams semi-final loser but the eighth seed certainly looks overpriced to me at 33/1.

Published at 1040 GMT on 07/01/24

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