Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for Shanghai Masters

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Daniil Medvedev at 25/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, William Hill)

0.5pt e.w. Karen Khachanov at 66/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt e.w. Alex Michelsen at 150/1 (Betfred, BOYLE Sports)

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Rolex Shanghai Masters

• Shanghai, China (outdoor hard)

The 2025 edition of this tournament highlighted how tricky things can be for tennis punters.

Shanghai had always been known for its slick conditions, probably the fastest of the Masters events – Roger Federer always liked it here.

But last season, out of the blue, its court speed rating dropped from medium-fast to medium-slow as players grumbled about the sluggish conditions.

The courts were still DecoTurf but among the complaints was that the balls were fluffing up in what was pretty extreme and hot and humid weather.

For all the moans and groans, big servers still had joy and the surprise final was between two of them – Valentin Vacherot famously delivering a shock win at a huge price by defeating his cousin, Arthur Rinderknech.

It’s probably fair to say I still haven’t got over 40/1 shot Daniil Medvedev losing in the semi-finals – part of run of near-misses.

In short, it’s hard to know what conditions we’re getting this year – organisers have been asked but haven’t responded, while early stats from qualifying have produced a mixed bag.

I suspect a lot of the big names exiting early last year may well have prompted conditions to be sped up again but it’s hard to be sure – keeping stakes low is recommended, or waiting a round or two to get involved if you're able to.

Here's a look at each quarter...

Quarter one

In the continued absence of Jannik Sinner, whose season is now over, Alex Zverev is again the top seed – and second favourite.

The German made the final here back in 2019 but last week in Beijing he lost in the quarter-finals to Novak Djokovic.

There’s no disgrace in that but it did help highlight a concern I raised in last week’s preview – that Zverev hasn’t really had any time off since his US Open success.

He went straight to Davis Cup after victory in New York, then to the Laver Cup in London before quickly heading to this Asian swing.

I can’t help but think fatigue could be an issue for him this week and that he’ll be eyeing a rest before the big end-of-season targets – the ATP Finals and Davis Cup Finals.

Basically, I’m happy to oppose Zverev.

Alex de Minaur is due to contest the final of Beijing at time of writing and has had a similar schedule to Zverev in recent weeks so he too could run out of steam.

I was tempted by Andrey Rublev, a finalist here three years ago. He notched up several wins on this Asian swing, making the Hangzhou final and the last eight in Beijing last week.

However, a look at the detail shows none of those victories have come against top-50 players, while there’s not top-30 win at all on hardcourts in 2026. That would surely need to change for him to stand a chance here.

Instead, I’m going to take a chance on KAREN KHACHANOV.

The Russian was a surprise semi-finalist at the recent US Open and he still looked in good nick when returning to action in Beijing last week.

In New York, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Learner Tien were among Khachanov’s victims, before he came up just short against Zverev in the last four.

He lost in straight sets but that was harsh on Khachanov, who was arguably the better player in sets two and three, losing both on tie-breaks. He led the first of those 5-3 and the second 6-4, suggesting he’ll be capable of challenging Zverev were they to meet in the quarter-finals in Shanghai.

Last week he beat FAA again, without facing a break point.

The same happened against Alex Molcan in round two before Hubert Hurkacz won another serve-dominated clash in the quarter-finals.

He’s serving well and striking the ball great off the ground at present, so if conditions are that bit quicker this year Khachanov could make a few waves at 66/1.

Quarter two

This looks a pretty packed section of the draw.

Numerically, it’s led by Ben Shelton, the third seed, but this is the American’s only appearance in Asia during the current swing, which doesn’t inspire confidence.

Yes, he was a US Open finalist but he then went immediately to Czechia where he lost two rubbers as the USA exited the Davis Cup. Maybe two weeks off has worked the oracle but it’s not hard to feel this is an unwanted trip right now.

And there are plenty of others ready to captialise if Shelton isn’t at 100 per cent this week.

Novak Djokovic has looked good in Beijing this past week – he’s the other man due to contest the final – although I’d be concerned about his 39-year-old legs with only a few days in between tournaments.

The 2023 champion Hubert Hurkacz certainly looks an awkward (possible) opening opponent, that is if the Pole is fit himself as he looked very fatigued in his Beijing semi-final with De Minaur, a match he eventually withdrew from in the second set.

Frances Tiafoe, Jakub Mensik and Lorenzo Musetti are other quality players in Q2 but my best suggestion, at the prices, is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

The Spaniard is a man for all conditions. He showed recently how he can play on a quick court when emerging as champion in Chengdu in what was his first tournament for two months.

Given that time out, it was no surprise to see him lose early last week following a quick dash for Tokyo and that will have essentially given him a week off to recover from his Chengdu exploits and ready himself for Shanghai.

The draw clearly isn’t easy – his opening match could come against Tokyo semi-finalist Jaume Munar with Tiafoe to follow – but for those prepared to take a chunky price, the Spaniard has potential.

Quarter three

Another section of the draw with no clear favourite.

Arthur Fils is probably the man the bookies would go with but he lost to Valentin Vacherot in Tokyo last week and it’s not as if he has no challengers.

Felix Auger-Aliassime is the man seeded to progress to the semis but he’s been disappointing since returning to the hardcourts.

Jiri Lehecka comes in off a final run in Tokyo where his strong serving has impressed again and he could well be a threat if it’s quick again this year.

Rafael Jodar is also in here but he delivered another shocker last week in Tokyo – a second heavy loss in four matches – and you do wonder if the Spaniard has some sort of issue at the moment.

A player who I believe could go well at a big price is ALEX MICHELSEN.

He played very well at the US Open, losing his serve only three times across the first four rounds.

He then pushed Tiafoe all the way – Michelsen should have won in straight sets but eventually lost, agonisingly, in a final-set tie-break.

There wasn’t a hangover though. The American returned to action with a tough draw in Tokyo last week but took a set off top seed Carlos Alcaraz with a performance which suggested he’s keen to make the most of his run of form.

Quarter four

This is the domain of tournament favourite Carlos Alcaraz, who is no bigger than 11/8 to lift the trophy.

He’s a worthy jolly, no doubt, but isn’t for me at that price.

The Spaniard hasn’t been beyond the quarter-finals in his two previous visits to Shanghai and will arrive off the back of a final run in Tokyo.

Usually that wouldn’t be off-putting but it should be remembered that Alcaraz isn’t long back from a four-month injury absence, while the man himself openly admitted he wasn’t at his best during that Japan Open run.

Alcaraz could play defending champion Valentin Vacherot in the last 16 here and it will be interesting to see how the shock 2025 winner performs.

After a miserable, injury-hit summer, the Monegasque looks to be building nicely towards this title defence. Last week was his best for many months with Alexander Blockx, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Arthur Fils all defeated.

He may well have his backers at 66s but I’m tempted to go with my man from last year and that’s DANIIL MEDVEDEV.

The Russian has taken to the Asian swing well, winning the title in Hangzhou before last week’s semi-final controversy in Beijing where he was defaulted after hitting a ball into the crowd and striking a spectator.

Medvedev was likely going to lose that match any way but he was playing well against Djokovic and there is plenty to like about the 2019 champion, especially if he gets the quicker conditions he relishes.

Overall, he’s 14-5 at this event with six of his wins coming against top-20 players.

In addition, eight of his 24 career titles have come in the post-US Open period so, unlike many players, this is a time of year when he has tended to play well.

25/1 seems a fair price.

Posted at 11:00 BST on 06/10/26

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