Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for day seven of Wimbledon 2025.
Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon day seven
1pt Kamil Majchrzak (+4.5) to beat Karen Khachanov on the game handicap at 5/6 (General)
1pt Carlos Alcaraz to beat Andrey Rublev 3-0 at 20/23 (BetVictor)
Karen Khachanov v Kamil Majchrzak
Khachanov may be feeling it physically and mentally after back-to-back five-set wins – he was two sets down on each occasion.
The draw opened up for Russian with many tipping him for a deep run after the seeds were scattered in quarter three. Perhaps he is feeling that pressure.
To reach the last eight, he’s now going to need to beat the in-form Majchrzak.
I put up the Pole as one to watch in 2025 on another site at the start of the season, although I’m not sure I expected to see him in the last 16 of Wimbledon.
I have, however, long respected his efforts on faster surfaces – he’s had some good results on them over the years – and so far this week he’s won 89% of his service games, while also breaking 25% of the time. Those are impressive numbers.
After two successive straight-sets wins, he should be the fresher player for this one and I would not rule out the upset.
However, the head-to-head does sit 3-0 in Khachanov’s favour, which is somewhat off-putting.
That said, all the matches have been fairly tight. Each has featured a tie-break, with the only grasscourt meeting going all the way to 7-6 in the third.
All of those matches came prior to Majchrzak’s drugs ban in 2023 but he’s now returning to the levels we saw from him in 2022 when that grass contest took place in Den Bosch.
The underdog is 9/4 to progress but a safer bet looks to be to side with him on the handicap, getting a 4.5-game start.
Andrey Rublev v Carlos Alcaraz
So, it’s that time of the tournament when Rublev comes up against someone from the game’s elite – we know how this usually unfolds.
Ten times he’s faced a top-five player at the Slams, 10 times he’s lost. Eight of those defeats have come in straight sets.
You have to wonder whether the mentally frail Russian has already been beaten in his mind before he steps onto court.
Rublev has actually beaten Alcaraz before – somewhat surprisingly on the clay of Madrid – but when the pair have met in proper quick conditions, he’s barely been able to lay a glove on the Spaniard.
Two indoor meetings at the ATP Finals in Turin have both seen Rublev fail to create a single break point and that has to be a major worry coming in here.
OK, Alcaraz hasn’t been at his best so far but he’ll know that entering the second week is the time to deliver.
I’m not sure there’s great value in backing Alcaraz to win this in straight sets but sometimes it’s worth going with what you expect to happen and that’s a comfortable win for the defending champion.
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Posted at 1720 BST on 05/07/25
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