ATP Finals: Free tennis betting preview and tips for Rafa Nadal v Andrey Rublev and Dominic Thiem v Stefanos Tsitsipas

Recommended bets

1pt Andrey Rublev to beat Rafael Nadal at 6/5

0.5pt Tie-break in first set of Dominic Thiem v Stefanos Tsitsipas at 11/4

Dominic Thiem v Stefanos Tsitsipas (1400 GMT)

Injury clouds hanging over both players make the tournament’s opening singles match a tricky betting heat.

Defending champion Tsitsipas comes into what is a repeat of last year’s final with a leg injury which has troubled him for several weeks.

He didn’t sound too convincing at Friday’s media day when he described his fitness as “very close to 100 per cent”, adding the injury had “mentally drained me”.

US Open champion Thiem, the marginal favourite here, struggled with a blister on his toe during his last outing in Vienna. Usually you’d expect that to have cleared up by now but he’s spoken about how indoor conditions have caused this sort of thing in the past, while his physio described the problem as “not typical”.

It’s therefore hard to make a confident judgement call over two players who have often had close battles.

Last year’s final – their only indoor hardcourt meeting - went to a final-set tie-break, while overall Thiem leads the head-to-head by a narrow 4-3 margin.

It is this hard-fought nature of their battles that leads to my best suggestion – a tie-break in the first set at 11/4.

These are two big servers and three of their last seven sets have gone the distance.

In the current indoor season, Tsitsipas has played a breaker in five of his nine sets despite (or maybe because of) his injury issue. Thiem’s figures in the same period are less impressive but it’s notable that in his only match against elite opposition (v Andrey Rublev) the first set went to a tie-break.

bet365 offer 11/4 here which looks a tad big.

Remember if your bookie doesn’t offer a specific tie-break market you can always Dutch the two correct score options.

Rafael Nadal v Andrey Rublev (2000 GMT)

Those of you who have already read my outright preview will know I’m keen on the chances of Rublev this week.

Yes, he’s got to take his impressive indoor form up another notch by claiming wins against the game’s very best players but the 23-year-old looks of the cusp of a real breakthrough.

Of course, the nerves could be an issue for the tournament debutant but the lack of fans should help on that front.

I’m expecting the empty arena to result in slower conditions than usual but Rublev has won in both St Petersburg and Vienna recently and neither event is known for being particularly quick.

Some logic would suggest a slower court will help Nadal but it’s the indoor part of the equation which really troubles him, rather than the actual speed.

Nadal has never really got to grips with such conditions – remember his remarkable career has seen him win just one indoor hardcourt title and that in 2005 - and he’s often been found wanting at the O2.

The Spaniard was well beaten in his opener here last season and also lost first up in his visit before that.

He did crush Rublev at the 2017 US Open but the Russian is an immeasurably better player than he was then.

He has the power to get Nadal on the defensive and the world number two hasn’t been able to transition from defence to attack as well indoors as he does elsewhere.

I had hoped Rublev would be a bit bigger than 6/5 so I’ll keep stakes small but I’m happy to stick with my initial assessment that he can win this.