Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s blockbuster Rome Masters final between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.
Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters
1pt over 2.5 sets at 11/8 (Unibet, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet)
1pt over 0.5 tie-breaks at 43/20 (Unibet, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet)
Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz (not before 1600 BST)
The two outright favourites will contest Sunday’s Rome Masters final and you get the impression this could be the shape of things to come.
While both men have dropped one set en route to this showdown, neither has been massively troubled, with the rest of the field unable to land a serious blow.
It’s not like the draw has helped them out either.
Sinner faced two seriously in-form players in Francisco Cerundolo and Casper Ruud yet dismissed both in straight sets. Ruud, the champion in Madrid only two weeks ago, won just a single game.
For a player who came into the tournament having not played in three months due to a controversial drugs suspension, his level has been nothing short of remarkable.
As for Alcaraz, he’s seen off the high-flying pair of Jack Draper and Lorenzo Musetti easily enough, although you would say his level has been a bit more up and down, as he showed in Friday’s semi-final win over Musetti when he went ‘off’ a bit mid-match.
It’s a rivalry we could easily be seeing a lot more of.
A repeat final at Roland Garros will be favoured now the pair are guaranteed to be seeded one and two in Paris, while there looks every chance that Wimbledon could see the pair collide too.
Not that this is a rivalry in its infancy.
They’ve already met 10 times at tour level, with Alcaraz up 6-4. It’s 1-1 on clay.
Alcaraz also won a Challenger claycourt encounter way back. Of more relevance to me would be their most recent clash which actually came at the 6 Kings exhibition event in Saudi Arabia last October.
With huge prize money on the line, this was a real competitive encounter and one Sinner managed to win despite having lost the three other meetings during 2024.
Many of the key stats fail to show a notable advantage, although Sinner does seem to have played the big points better – he’s converted 49% of break points, with Alcaraz back on 31%.
What is particularly notable about their series is how the matches have been consistently close.
Eight of the 12 in total have been decided by a final set.
"We know each other quite well now," Sinner said when looking ahead to this final. “I feel like we both know how to play against each other a little bit, so we have to be prepared tactically. Of course, small things are going to be changed. But it's just a great test for me to see where I am.”
Such comments only add to the feeling that the pattern of closeness may not be broken.
Frankly, I find it hard to pick a winner.
Maybe that’s a confidence thing but there’s just still that nagging question that was there when I wrote my outright preview (another 33/1 semi-final loser for those asking) of ‘how can any player come back after three months off and just destroy a field of this quality?’
Perhaps Sinner’s performances should have blown that thought away by now but he does still have to beat the man who, at time of writing, retains the crown of King of Clay.
Alcaraz is the reigning French Open champion, who has won 26 of his last 28 claycourt matches. This is the ultimate test for Sinner, who did admit to being troubled by a blister after his semi-final when he also had a leg issue, one he later downplayed.
The bookies have the Italian as the slight favourite at 7/10 so maybe there’s some value in Alcaraz at 5/4 but I won’t be getting involved in that market.
Preference would be for a long match.
CLICK HERE to back over 2.5 sets with Sky Bet
The total games line is set at 22.5. The overs have landed in 10 of those 12 previous meetings. The three best-of-five encounters obviously made it but would have done any way given the first two sets on each occasion were shared.
However, preference is for over 2.5 sets in the match (i.e. both players to win a set). That’s occurred in nine of 12 and can be backed at a bigger price of 11/8.
The other bet I like here is a tie-break at 43/20.
Eight of the 10 tour-level meetings have seen a breaker, including their 2022 clay clash in Umag, as did the 6 Kings final last autumn.
I understand the slow surface increases the likelihood of service breaks – and therefore reduces the chance of tie-breaks – but there is much to suggest there will be little to separate these two and the price just looks a tad large.
Posted at 1720 BST on 17/05/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
