After two profitable previews so far at the Paris Masters, Andy Schooler looks ahead to the third-round action, which takes place on Thursday.
Tennis betting tips: Paris Masters
1.5pts Daniel Altmaier to win over 11.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime at 17/20 (Unibet)
1pt Andrey Rublev to beat Ben Shelton at 23/20 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
Felix Auger-Aliassime v Daniel Altmaier
I’ve already mentioned Altmaier a couple of time this week and he’s pulled off two upsets, including against Casper Ruud in round two.
He’s far from without a chance here, either, in my opinion.
The slower courts at the new Paris venue, La Defense Arena, look good for Altmaier, who is yet to drop a set this week.
He’s served well – the first serve won 86% of points against Ruud – and I’d at least expect him to keep things tight against Auger-Aliassime.
The Canadian would probably prefer conditions quicker than this and he’s struggled through two rounds so far, coming from a set down in each.
His big first serve is still a threat but he’s not got to grips with his returns and Altmaier has proved a tough opponent for FAA in the past.
The German is 2-1 up on the head-to-head, winning their only previous hardcourt meeting (in Auckland last season).
I’m tempted by the 5/2 on offer about another upset here but will instead take a shorter price of 4/5 in the Altmaier total games market.
Over 11.5 looks a decent play – it delivers if he wins and should also come good if Altmaier is able to win a set (he’d need only five or six more games). 4/5 is bigger than his ‘to win a set’ price so this looks the way to go.
Ben Shelton v Andrey Rublev
Rublev is another player who appears to be enjoying conditions in Paris this year.
He arrived on a five-match losing streak but he’s managed to dispatch Jacob Fearnley and Learner Tien comfortably so far.
Now he faces a player who has also struggled of late, both with form and injury, and one who hasn’t got a great deal of experience indoors.
Admittedly, Shelton did win the pair’s only previous match which came on indoor hard around this time last season. The American won 6-4 in the third in Basel but it was a very tight match, one in which Rublev created six break points but converted none. In contrast, Shelton won both the break points he had. In short, it wouldn’t have taken much for the result to have been different.
Shelton did serve well against Flavio Cobolli on Tuesday but with confidence returning to Rublev, I’d expect this to be a tougher test and the Russian’s experience indoors – six of his 17 titles have come with a roof over his head – can give him the edge here.
Posted at 1950 BST on 29/10/25
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