Tennis betting tips: Miami Open round three
1.5pts Reilly Opelka to beat Taylor Fritz at 11/5 (bet365)
1pt Francisco Cerundolo (+4.5) to beat Daniil Medvedev on the game handicap at 10/13 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
Reilly Opelka v Taylor Fritz (Sun)
Opelka delivered a serving masterclass against Jack Draper on Friday. Nothing new there, you might say.
But he was also excellent from the baseline and it was arguably one of the best all-round performances of his career.
The American certainly seems to be happy under new coach Craig Boynton, someone who has previously worked with two other huge servers in John Isner and Hubert Hurkacz. “I could not have picked a better coach,” was his comment after the Draper win, one which saw him produce very few unforced errors.
Going back to the serve, Opelka slammed down 25 aces that day – that’s his average for the season, which is well up from 2025.
“I am serving the best I have served. I am really happy with my motion and technique,” he added, before also highlighting he has been working on his return a lot.
“The stats don’t show in terms of breaking, but if you look at my stats with balls in play, there are a lot of positive things happening,” said the 6ft 11in star.
Admittedly, Opelka doesn’t have the best of records against Fritz – down 5-1 – but the pair haven’t met since 2021 and six of the last seven sets they have played have ended in tie-breaks. In short, things have been tight.
Fritz has been well short of his best so far in 2026, still hindered by knee tendinitis.
He dropped a set to Botic van de Zandschulp in his opening match, that following on from a disappointing Indian Wells where he lost to Alex Michelsen.
They have also been convincing defeats to Lorenzo Musetti and Tommy Paul, while when Fritz did have a chance to bag a title, he failed to convert championship point in Dallas against Ben Shelton.
From what I’ve seen of late, Opelka has a good chance here – certainly better than odds of 11/5 suggest.
Francisco Cerundolo v Daniil Medvedev (Mon)
While I put up Medvedev in my outright preview, I was always wary of this clash which certainly has the potential to prove awkward.
Medvedev’s unconvincing win over Rei Sakamoto in the last round hasn’t eased my nerves either.
Cerundolo has a strong 13-4 win-loss record here in Miami, where he gets plenty of support from the Latino community.
The Argentine has been to one semi-final and to quarter-finals in his last four visits, posting wins over the likes of Felix Auger-Aliassime, Tommy Paul and Casper Ruud.
His heavy forehand has the ability to punch holes in Medvedev’s renowned defence and, in what will be the pair’s first meeting, will have the potential to surprise.
While not ready to pull a u-turn on my Medvedev tip, this could be closer than the odds suggest – Cerundolo is 13/4 for victory.
A player on the handicaps is the recommendation where Cerundolo gets a 4.5-game start.
Posted at 08:50 GMT on 22/03/26
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