Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s semi-finals of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.
Tennis betting tips: Indian Wells
1pt Alex Zverev to win a set v Jannik Sinner at 7/5 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
1pt Sinner to serve most aces v Zverev at 29/20 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
0.5pt Carlos Alcaraz to serve most aces v Daniil Medvedev at 4/1 (bet365)
Alex Zverev v Jannik Sinner
It’s semi-finals day at a Masters event and, guess what, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are still involved.
I have little doubt plenty will be prepared to back the win double, even at just 4/9, while there will also be interest in the straight-sets double which pays a better-looking 6/4.
The former certainly isn’t something I can be putting up on these pages and I’m not totally convinced about the latter either.
As I felt at the start of the tournament – when I highlighted the fact that when these two have both played, the pair have pocketed 20 of the last 21 titles available – Sinner looks the more vulnerable of the two.
Joao Fonseca pushed him as hard as anyone this week (I’m still annoyed over the Brazilian failing to win the first set from 6-3 up in the tie-break) and Zverev has shown a similarly aggressive approach in Indian Wells which could punch some holes in the strong Sinner defence.
He’s had some success against Sinner in the past, winning four of 10 meetings, although it has to be said that the Italian has won the last five.
If Zverev continues to serve well – he’s only lost one game behind his own delivery in four matches thus far – he will give himself a platform to unleash from the baseline and his backhand is one of the best in the business.
If he is truly committed to playing the way has been over the past week or so, Zverev is not without a chance at 9/2.
However, having watched the German for many years – and with memories of his Australian Open semi-final capitulation still fresh in the mind – I’d have concerns about hm executing his gameplan when really needed.
A better approach, in my opinion, would be to back him to win a set.
That’s happened in seven of those 10 previous meetings and I’d be happy to discount one of the misses given Zverev really shouldn’t have played last year’s Paris semi-final having rolled his ankle the previous night (he won just one game).
The other angle I like here is in the aces market.
Sinner is 29/20 to serve the most which is tempting.
He out-aced Zverev 12-7 at the ATP Finals in their last match and 8-2 in Paris before that. In the past few days, he’s really hit his spots, slamming 15 aces past Fonseca in two sets and 10 in eight games past Learner Tien in the last round.
Despite his wingspan, Zverev struggled to get his racquet on Brandon Nakashima’s serve earlier in the tournament – the American hit 17 aces that day, with Zverev admitting his placement was just too good.
That’s a Sinner strength and so I’ll have a small dabble in this market too.
Carlos Alcaraz v Daniil Medvedev
You can make a case for Medvedev here given he’s cruised through to this stage without losing a set.
But the fact is he’s lost four in a row against Alcaraz, claiming just a single set in those matches.
The pair have also met here twice before, Alcaraz winning in straight sets in both the 2023 and 2024 finals.
The early stages of his match with Arthur Rinderknech aside, Alcaraz has looked very good too and, put simply, he’s the better player. Unless he turns up well below his top level, the Spaniard should win.
This is his fifth straight semi-final appearance in Indian Wells and a third final in four years beckons.
Medvedev famously called himself a hardcourt specialist once but he trails Alcaraz 4-1 on this surface and I doubt that changes here.
Again, the aces market maybe offers some value instead.
Alcaraz is out at 4/1 to serve the most which just looks too big.
Long-term readers will know I place much greater weight on the head-to-head in this market and a look through the stats shows this market has produced one Alcaraz win and three draws in the last four matches.
Apply the Indian Wells filter and those two finals the pair have played have seen ace ‘results’ of 3-3 and 1-0 in Alcaraz’s favour.
This market appears to have been priced up based on the current tournament figures – Medvedev has served 28 to Alcaraz’s 18 thus far. Bad move.
Alcaraz may fall just short but he should not be 4/1 here.
Posted at 20:50 GMT on 13/03/26
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
