Tennis betting tips: Indian Wells
1pt Jannik Sinner to beat Daniil Medvedev 2-0 at 8/11 (bet365, Spreadex, Sporting Index)
Daniil Medvedev v Jannik Sinner (2100 GMT)
One down, one to go.
Daniil Medvedev ended Carlos Alcaraz’s unbeaten start to 2026 on Saturday, a huge achievement in itself.
But now the Russian must come back less than 24 hours later to tackle the other ‘Big Two’ member, Jannik Sinner.
In doing so, he will bid to become only the second player to beat both men at the same tournament – Novak Djokovic, 2023 ATP Finals, in case you were wondering.
Can he do it?
Well, play like he did against Alcaraz and the 10/3 outsider will have a chance.
Another straight-sets win means he’s now won his last 18 sets and he’s had his serve broken only four times in that run (twice here in Indian Wells).
Yet I felt it was a less-than-complete Alcaraz performance in the semis. Doubtless many errors were forced by a strong, aggressive approach by Medvedev, but 30 went into the ‘unforced’ category, too.
I’ve long felt that Sinner is the more consistent man from the baseline – this won’t be the same sort of challenge for Medvedev – and his defence is immaculate.
He’s lost eight of the last nine against Sinner, although they haven’t met since 2024 and the Russian’s renaissance under coach Thomas Johansson means he arrives here in confident mood.
Speaking about his recent approach to the game after his SF win, Medvedev said: “It always has to be a balance, because I did try a bit in my career at one point to be, let's call it over-aggressive, and it was not good.
“Right now, I'm in confidence and when I'm in confidence, I always said I feel like I'm an aggressive player, especially on my serve.”
That was reflected in an excellent second-serve points won figure of 74% against Alcaraz, although I’d suggest he’ll do very well to replicate that here.
Sinner has won 39% of return points across those last nine matches, including 59% on Medvedev’s second serve.
He’s held serve 90% of the time and broken 23%.
In short, Medvedev does need to bring something different to the table.
Looking ahead to the final, Sinner said: “He's back to a very, very high level. Very big serve, I feel like. He's returning very well. Very, very deep.
“Everyone is trying to be slightly more aggressive… Sascha (Alex Zverev) today tried to be more aggressive. He didn't play his best tennis today, I feel like, but everyone is trying to push.”
The way Sinner dismantled Zverev’s second serve – the German won only 28% of points behind it – is a massive warning for Medvedev, who could well be forced to go even more. And as he’s already pointed out in his quote, that can lead to problems.
Sinner mixed up his return position against Zverev and given the success he had, that could well be a tactic reused here.
Like Medvedev, he’s yet to lose a set in Indian Wells and has also lost his serve only twice in five matches.
He’s the better player here – that’s reflected in the rankings and the odds – and I find it hard to oppose Sinner, although I need to mention that he was stretching out his back at times during his semi-final victory.
The problem is finding value in the markets.
He’s a hot favourite and I can certainly see why people would be prepared to take a chance on Medvedev at the prices.
Yet my head struggles to see Medvedev winning.
Maybe he can cover the game handicap – he gets a 4.5 start, although that’s a figure I always worry about as who serves first can play a massive role.
I’m just going to go with what I think is the most likely outcome and that’s a straight-sets Sinner win.
That’s just about backable at 8/11, although stakes will be kept small.
Frankly, I’ll be glad to see the back of Indian Wells and will happily keep money in the pot for the challenge of Miami next week.
Posted at 08:50 GMT on 15/03/26
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