Ernests Gulbis in action
Ernests Gulbis in action

French Open: Day one best bets from tennis expert Scott Ferguson


Scott Ferguson highlights the best bets on day one of the French Open, where the outside courts provide the pick of the opportunities.

Recommended bets

1pt Casper Ruud to win 3-1 at 14/5

2pts Kateryna Kozlova to win at 11/8

1pt Sofya Zhuk to win at 23/10

  • By Scott Ferguson

Casper Ruud v Ernests Gulbis

First up on Court 13, we have a clash of young and old on the ATP circuit. Casper Ruud is one of the new breed, an exciting young Norwegian with a strong pedigree on clay. This season 16 of his 22 victories have been on the red dirt, with a semi-final in Rio de Janeiro and a final in Houston. Most recently he was the spectator in the Nick Kyrgios chair-throwing disqualification in Rome, when he was leading in third set. His loss to Juan Martin del Potro in the following round is no reason for disappointment.

Ernests Gulbis is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. For over a decade it has been a repeating story. When he's switched on, he is a marvellous shot-maker, and great to watch. But when his mind is elsewhere, he goes on long losing streaks to anyone and everyone. Oh, the life of a player from one of the richest families in Latvia, with zero motivation from prize-money. Expect moments of brilliance from Gulbis, enough to break serve occasionally and even take a set. However the frustration and racquet-smashing is never far away.

After an early battle, I expect this one to go safely to Ruud. More often than not, Gulbis will salvage a set in the longer match format and a four-set loss represents a more likely outcome than the whitewash.

Bernarda Pera v Kateryna Kozlova

Two players in decent lower-grade form clash here, with the market quite possibly the wrong way around. Bernarda Pera arrives on an eight-match winning streak via a $100k tournament in Slovakia and navigating her way through three rounds of qualifying, but not one of those scalps was ranked in the top 100. Winning form is naturally good form, but this is a step up in class for the world number 83.

On the other hand, Kateryna Kozlova's run of ten wins in 13 has been at Tour and Premier event level. She has fought through qualifying plus an early round at each of Charleston, Istanbul and Madrid, defeating this event's second seed Karolina Pliskova in the latter tournament.

She is no world-beater by any stretch of the imagination, but is surely deserving of greater love than the market currently offers her. At worst, this should be flip-a-coin odds.

Laura Siegemund v Sofya Zhuk

The longshot bet of the day comes in this low-profile match between the world number 99 and a qualifier ranked 169.

Laura Siegemund once reached the top 30, and has a couple of WTA titles on this surface to her name. Age and injuries have taken their toll as she struggles to put together any run of form. Just this week she managed three wins in Strasbourg, one of the weakest WTA events on the circuit, but those three players were all ranked outside the top 250. Based on current form strength, she can't be going around as short as 1/3.

Sofya Zhuk survived qualifying to reach only her second Grand Slam tournament main draw, starting as the outsider in each of the three matches. The 2015 junior Wimbledon champion is likely to be better suited to faster surfaces, but will have gained plenty of confidence this week and already has a handful of minor clay titles under her belt as a teenager.

The IMG Academy player loves a big stage, and while Court 7 isn't exactly the final Saturday on Centre Court, she will pull a crowd. Grinding away is more her style than the rampant aggression on the tour these days so expect a drawn-out battle where the difference between players isn't as wide as the odds suggest.

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