Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s Australian Open women’s singles final between Ash Barty and Danielle Collins.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open
2pts under 20.5 games in Ash Barty v Danille Collins at 22/25 (Unibet)
Ash Barty v Danielle Collins (0830 GMT)
Just 21 games dropped in reaching the Australian Open. Quite an achievement.
Indeed, Barty’s destructive run to Saturday’s title match in Melbourne is the best at a Slam, in terms of games lost, since 2013.
The home hope, the first Aussie to make the final since Wendy Turnbull in 1980, has lost serve just once and as Madison Keys put it after her crushing semi-final defeat, “she seems completely in control”.
The 5ft 5in star’s serve, one of the best on the WTA circuit, is firing, her forehand dictating and her famous slice preventing her rivals from playing the game on their own terms.
Admittedly Barty is yet to face a top-10 player at the tournament – but that won’t change here with Collins ranked down at number 30.
The top seed saw Naomi Osaka, Maria Sakkari and Barbora Krejcikova all taken out of her path but, as they say, you can only beat those in front of you and Barty has done that in some style.
The way she’s been playing you wonder what can upset her in this match.
Perhaps the pressure of expectation as she bids to become the first Australian singles champion at the event since Chris O’Neil 44 years ago. After all, she’s a hot favourite at around 1/5.
But Barty has been in similar situations before. She’s a two-time Grand Slam champion, her Wimbledon triumph last summer being the one she really craved.
For Collins, the boot is on the other foot.
She’s playing in her maiden Slam final and we’ve seen many such players wilt on the biggest stage of all over the years.
That has to be a worry for potential backers but more encouraging is her head-to-head record against Barty.
While Collins trails 3-1 overall, the two hardcourt matches have been split, Collins winning the most recent (in Adelaide last year) and only losing the other 7-6 in the final set.
That’s a record which suggests there is certainly some logic in siding with the underdog at 19/5.
Collins has the power to knock Barty off her stride – Swiatek said Collins hit “the fastest ball I have ever played against” following Thursday’s loss – but we said the same about Keys. And Jessica Pegula. And Amanda Anisimova.
In the end, none could really land a blow.
Collins enjoyed great success on Swiatek’s second serve the other day but it’s hard to see a repeat of that against Barty’s kick delivery which has been so solid.
In fact, that 86% win rate helped mask the fact that Collins won only 39% of points behind her own second serve – that’s an area where Barty can be expected to prosper.
So, what about a bet?
Well, my suggestion is to back UNDER 20.5 GAMES at a shade of odds-on.
Barty is odds-on to win in straight sets for good reason and despite Collins’ history of keeping things competitive against the Aussie, such is the world number one’s form that I see her continuing her march through this match.
She’s picked apart previous opponents seemingly at will and with her game looking strong in virtually every aspect, expecting her to win 6-4 6-4 or better seems perfectly logical.
It’s something she’s managed in every round so far – usually with something to spare.
Under 20.5 gives a little wriggle room too, as opposed to the -4.5 games handicap which could go agonisingly awry were Collins to serve first.
Other bets to consider include bet365’s 11/10 quote about there being under 1.5 breaks of the Barty serve.
Remember, she’s lost her delivery just once in six matches at the tournament.
The problem here is the nerves aspect – will we see a shaky start? Unlike the bet above, there’s not a great margin of error here.
I also like the look of under 8.5 games in the first set, something which has landed in five of Barty’s six matches so far.
This is offered at 15/8 by Betfair/Paddy Power.
Again, the worry has to be a nervy start from the favourite, something which could scupper the bet, although this time the price makes the risk a little more appealing.
Posted at 1120 GMT on 28/01/22
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