Top seed Novak Djokovic fell at the US Open on Sunday. Now our tipster Andy Schooler is backing the second seed to bow out on Monday.
Felix Auger-Aliassime v Dominic Thiem
Novak Djokovic’s shocking default has blown the US Open men’s singles wide open and players’ mentality may now change.
I remember Rafael Nadal’s stunning loss at the 2009 French Open almost threw Roger Federer off course. All of a sudden he had a glorious opportunity to complete the career Grand Slam. He ultimately did so but not before falling two sets down to Tommy Haas less than 24 hours after Nadal’s defeat.
Thiem is the one likely to feel the extra pressure more in this match. He was installed as the 10/3 second favourite following Djokovic’s loss.
Followers of my outright preview will have the Austrian at 11/1 but now maybe the time to oppose him.
Auger-Aliassime has been in sensational form and looks overpriced at 9/5.
Long touted as a future world number one, he appears to be coming of age given the way he totally dismantled Andy Murray and Corentin Moutet. He has lost serve only once in the tournament.
Clearly this is a step up but both his serve and his groundstrokes look likely to take time away from Thiem and that’s an area he’s struggled with in the past.
The Australian Open runner-up has reached this stage without hitting top gear – he dropped a set to Marin Cilic on Saturday and was given a battle before Jaume Munar retired after two sets of their first-round clash.
The fact that Thiem hasn’t faced Auger-Aliassime in a match before could add an element of surprise, especially with that firing serve.
One factor which will aid Thiem is that the (faster) outside courts are now longer in use for singles – this match will be played on the Arthur Ashe Stadium – but it is scheduled for the hottest part of the day which should help his opponent.
In short, the 9/5 is too big.
Matteo Berrettini v Andrey Rublev
Like the Thiem match, this contest promises much but it’s slight favourite Berrettini I like here.
Both men have been easing through the draw – neither has lost a set so far – but now both can expect a stern test.
It is Rublev who has the better hardcourt starts over the past 12 months. The Russian has the better return game and that’s reflected in the figures which show he has broken serve almost twice as often as Berrettini on this surface.
The problem is he’s really struggled with the Italian’s serve in their previous matches.
He’s broken the Berrettini delivery just three times in four matches, the Italian leading the head-to-head 3-1.
And further bad news for Rublev is that his foe is yet to lose his serve in this tournament.
The pair actually met at this stage of last year’s US Open with Berrettini winning in straight sets.
With conditions faster this year on the newly-laid Laykold courts, you’d expect that booming Berrettini serve to cause even more problems.
There’s no doubt Rublev’s game has the potential to cause Berrettini problems but if the Italian keeps his serving at a high level – he’s been virtually untouchable this week behind his first serve - then he can come through this and deliver a 4/5 winner.
