Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s Rolex Paris Masters final between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jannik Sinner.
Tennis betting tips: Paris Masters final
1.5pts under 20.5 games at 5/6 (Sky Bet, BetMGM)
1pt Sinner to win the first two games at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
Felix Auger-Aliassime v Jannik Sinner (1400 GMT)
We have a big men’s tennis final in 2025 – and it’s not Carlos Alcaraz v Jannik Sinner.
Alcaraz failed to keep his side of the bargain, his poor indoor record continuing with a loss to Cameron Norrie, but Sinner is very much here, despite a week in which he’s often looked below his best physically.
With the ATP Finals just a week away, it would have been easy for the Italian to withdraw and rest up but he appears fully motivated this week – win this and he’ll be back as world number one (probably for just one week, mind).
He’s a red-hot favourite to do so – 1/10 for the win and just 2/5 for victory in straight sets.
However, Auger-Aliassime has his own special motivation here. A win for the Canadian puts him into those ATP Finals as the last qualifier.
Still, stopping the Sinner juggernaut is some task.
Remember, he’s been beaten only six times in 2025 and two of those matches saw him retire. Four of the losses have come at the hands of Alcaraz with Alexander Bublik the only other man to beat him in a completed match.
There are no obvious weaknesses in his game and I don’t see how Auger-Aliassime will punch holes in his defence on a regular basis.
To be fair, the Canadian has been serving well in Paris, winning at least 83% of first-serve points in every round, while the forehand has fired well.
However, the return game of Sinner is one of the best in the business and a more worrying stat for FAA is that he won only 43% of second-serve points in his semi-final victory over Bublik.
But the biggest concern has to be the head-to-head.
Although it’s actually level at 2-2, Sinner has won both meetings this season with ease and FAA’s last win came back in 2022 when the Italian was nowhere near his current levels.
This summer, Sinner destroyed Auger-Aliassime in Cincinnati, dropping just two games. He had a bit more trouble in their US Open rematch but still won pretty comfortably in four sets, losing serve only once.
The stats from those two matches show FAA broke only 8% of the time and held just 58% of his service games.
And to reiterate how important second-serve points could be, FAA won just 37% behind his second deal with Sinner operating at 66%.
I find it hard to see anything other than a Sinner win here but, given the odds involved, the sub-markets need to be scoured to find any sort of value.
Under 20.5 games looks decent at 5/6 – only one of the 11 sets these two have played has featured more than 10 games and conditions aren’t particularly quick here.
For something bigger, Sinner to serve most aces is worth considering.
He’s out at 11/4 despite the fact he’s won the ace count in both of those 2025 meetings.
However, it might be better to focus in on the first set and follow some trends there.
All four previous meetings have seen the first set won easily – to be precise in less than nine games. The last three opening sets have all gone to Sinner.
The Italian is usually dialled in from the get-go – in contrast, FAA lost the opening set in his first three rounds of this tournament - and it’s not hard to envisage him racing ahead. Under 8.5 games to land again is a tempting 11/4.
However, my preference along these lines is to back Sinner to win the opening two games of the match and establish a 2-0 lead.
He’s done this in the last three meetings of the pair and I suspect FAA will know this.
Given how things unfolded in Cincinnati – another match he came into in good form – I suspect he’ll be fearing the worst and a sloppy start would be no surprise.
Sinner was relentless from the start against Alex Zverev on Saturday, winning the first set 6-0, albeit against an ailing opponent.
He looks a man on a mission right now and this bet appears to offer a decent way of getting the hot favourite onside at a tasty price.
Preview posted at 0910 GMT on 02/11/2025
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