Recommended bets
1pt Djokovic to win the first set 6-1 at 10/1
1pt Djokovic to win the second set 6-1 at 12/1
Djokovic v Nishikori: Back the breaks in-play
Novak Djokovic might command one of tennis’ most one-sided head-to-head records over Kei Nishikori ahead of their Australian Open quarter-final meeting, but an intriguing betting opportunity still exists in-play.
Djokovic may have won the last 13 meetings with Nishikori, but they’ve always been seesaw affairs, with free-flowing breaks of serve.
Indeed, there have been 24 breaks of serve out of 85 games from their last three contests and there were eight breaks in 27 games during their solitary Australian Open meeting back in 2016.
That’s one break in every 3.5 and 3.37 games respectively, meaning there will be plenty of value in backing the breaks when action gets under way.
They’ve also been in top returning form Down Under, with Djokovic topping the service-breaks table with 26, while Nishikori sits sixth with 20 to his name.
It would be something of a surprise to see the pair in top serving form, having endured draining fourth-round encounters.
Djokovic admitted he was struggling physically after seeing off Daniil Medvedev in four sets, while Nishikori went the distance with Pablo Carreno Busta in a match containing 12 breaks.
The Japanese star has played three five-setters, giving us little reason to believe he is capable of causing an upset against the six-time Melbourne Park champion.
Combined with the freedom of serve breaks which should be in Djokovic's favour, I'm looking towards convincing set-score wins for the world number one to add some pre-match interest.
Of the 46 sets they’ve contested, the Serb has won 6-1 on nine occasions, meaning it happens close to 20 per cent of the time.
That makes the 10/1 (Ladbrokes and Coral) on Djokovic to win the first set by that scoreline again particularly appealing while, even more generously, Ladbrokes offer 12/1 on it occurring in the second set.
Posted at 1405 GMT on 22/01/19.
