Tennis expert Andy Schooler previews Thursday’s women’s semi-finals at the Australian Open in Melbourne.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1pt Aryna Sabalenka to beat Elina Svitolina 2-0 at 4/5 (bet365, BetVictor)
1.5pts Jessica Pegula under 3.5 aces v Elena Rybakina at 8/11 (bet365)
0.5pt Pegula to beat Rybakina at 9/5 (Paddy Power)
Aryna Sabalenka v Elina Svitolina (0830 GMT)
Svitolina has begun 2026 with 10 straight wins and she’s lost only one set in doing so.
In Melbourne, she’s beaten Mirra Andreeva and Coco Gauff – well, that’s if you don’t feel that Gauff beat herself.
In short, the Ukrainian couldn’t have arrived at this stage in much better shape.
The problem is that the world number one now awaits.
Svitolina spoke about her more aggressive approach following her cruise past Gauff but while she may have upped things on that front, she’s still going to come up short in the power stakes here.
Few hit the ball as hard as Sabalenka, who – usually - also has the desired control.
She leads the head-to-head 5-1, winning both matches on a hardcourt, and I just see her game being too much for Svitolina, who will ultimately be overpowered and out-hit.
Sabalenka may not have been at her very best so far but she looked in the mood when putting upstart Iva Jovic in her place in the quarter-finals, losing just three games, and I’m happy to take her to win this comfortably.
A straight-sets Sabalenka win has been the outcome in three of the pairs last four meetings and is backable at 4/5.
In the sub-markets, Sabalenka’s ace numbers are often over-estimated by the layers and that could be the case again here.
Svitolina has served the most aces in two of the six previous meetings, while the last two matches have seen a tie on the ace count.
At this tournament, she’s served 0.25 per game to Sabalenka’s 0.22 so, all things considered, 13/8 about Svitolina landing the ‘most aces’ bet has potential.
Jessica Pegula v Elena Rybakina (to follow SF1)
The second semi-final also features two players yet to lose a set in Melbourne.
Pegula has just taken down defending champion Madison Keys and Amanada Anisimova, while Rybakina has defeated in-form Elise Mertens and second seed Iga Swiatek.
The head-to-head is locked at 3-3 with little between the pair when you delve into the data.
Rybakina has the edge in the series on first-serve points won (69%-66%) but Pegula is up on the equivalent second-serve stat (47-44). Given those numbers, it’s probably no surprise to see that both have won 42% of return points.
Rybakina has now won 18 of her last 19 matches, a run which took in her title run at the WTA Finals, and she has the bigger game, boasting one of the best serves in the game and greater power off the ground.
However, I was still a little surprised to see her around the 4/9 mark.
Pegula has dealt with the power of Keys and Anisimova very impressively, ultimately using the pace against them, and those matches should have prepared her well for this test. She should also be happy this match is taking place at night when the cooler conditions will dampen Rybakina’s power a tad.
Pegula been excellent on return of serve over the past fortnight, winning 56% of her opponents’ service games. History shows she’s had decent success dealing with Rybakina’s serve so I think 9/5 about the upset has a touch of value about it.
The one service area where Rybakina has been dominant is the ace count.
The Kazakh has won this by some considerable margins in each of their previous matches – 14-9-3-10-12-3 are the exact numbers.
Sadly, there are no handicap markets available at time of writing but I’m also interested in Pegula serving under 3.5 aces.
She’s never served more than two in a match against Rybakina, never mind three.
This is a bet which very much relates to the head-to-head – it’s all about how one player reads the other’s serve and their ability to get a racquet on it. It’s not about how many points they win.
Posted at 13:40 GMT on 28/01/26
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