Our tennis man Andy Schooler looks ahead to Thursday's action at the Australian Open in Melbourne.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1pt over 37.5 games in Jaume Munar v Casper Ruud at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair William Hill)
1pt Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Tomas Machac at 33/20 (BetMGM, VirginBet)
Jaume Munar v Casper Ruud
Munar was a notable improver in 2025, particularly on a hardcourt, and he’s not without a chance here.
The Spaniard went 6-6 against the top 20 on this surface last season, notching some impressive wins over the likes of Lorenzo Musetti, Ben Shelton and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
He’s 11/5 to claim another scalp here, although a 1-6 career head-to-head against Ruud is somewhat off-putting.
That said, it’s only 1-2 on a hardcourt and they played here in Melbourne 12 months ago when the first-round contest went to a deciding set.
Indeed, all three of those hardcourt meetings have seen Munar win at least a set which starts pointing me towards the bet.
Ruud has only ever won two Australian Open matches in straight sets so it’s not hard to envisage this one going to at least four.
With this in mind, the total-games market is the one for me, with over 37.5 getting the nod.
An alternative is to back Munar, who will likely be pleased this is taking place in the slower, evening conditions, on the game handicap. Getting a 4.5 start, he could well cover.
Tomas Machac v Stefanos Tsitsipas
I think Tsitsipas is overpriced here.
Yes, Machac did start he tournament well, going unbroken in a straight-sets victory over Grigor Dimitrov. In round one.
However, it’s a rusty version of Dimitrov at the moment – he’s only just back after long-term injury – and we should also remember that Tsitsipas played some pretty good tennis once he got over an early blip against Shintaro Mochizuki.
The Greek also performed well at the United Cup warm-up event and looks to be picking up again after a disappointing 2025 campaign during which he was dogged by a back injury.
Even with that issue, over the past year Tsitsipas has still managed to post service-hold/break figures on a hardcourt of 87-19. His combined figure of 106 is only marginally behind Machac’s 107 (84-23).
Tsitsipas also won the pair’s only previous meeting, in Vienna in 2023, but what really pushes me towards backing him at 33/20 is Machac’s struggles in longer matches.
His Grand Slam results show that when the matches have been settled in straight sets, he had a fine 26-9 win-loss record.
But once they go past the minimum distance, he’s just 5-10.
I feel Tsitsipas will be competitive here, at the very least, and if he is able to drag Machac into the trenches, the experienced former finalist here may well land the upset.
