Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s Australian Open men’s singles final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1pt Carlos Alcaraz to beat Novak Djokovic 3-0 at 7/4 (General)
Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic (0830 GMT)
This isn’t the final most people expected.
Djokovic saw to that with a stunning five-set upset of Jannik Sinner (he had been a 9/1 outsider for victory) on a mesmerising day of tennis on Friday.
However, the nature of the two semi-finals – Alcaraz beat Alex Zverev in five and a half hours in the other match – means that recovery is now the biggest factor to consider when looking ahead to Sunday’s final.
Even Djokovic himself admitted that, saying: “Let's see how fresh we are both able to be. He also had a big match, but he has 15, 16 years on me. You know, biologically I think it's going to be a bit easier for him to recover.”
That’s not great for a punter as it really involves a bit of guesswork.
What we do know is that Alcaraz played for significantly longer (almost 80 minutes more) but, as Djokovic said, he’s also significantly younger and you don’t need to be a doctor to say that 22-year-old athletes tend to recover from physical exertion quicker than 38-year-old ones.
We also know that he struggled physically for a spell against Alex Zverev. While a possible adductor strain was mentioned, the likelihood is that Alcaraz was cramping. Expect him and his team to look at fluid intake, although if it was stress-induced – as was the case against Djokovic at Roland Garros in 2023 – that may not matter.
As for Djokovic, history tells us that being fatigued at the business end of a Slam has not gone well for him in recent times – he lost four Grand Slam semi-finals last season to the top players and looked jaded on each occasion. After losing the Alcaraz at the US Open, he admitted it was now very difficult for him to beat the elite in best-of-five at the end of a major.
Playing more than four hours in his semi-final and finishing at 1.30am – meaning he won’t have got to bed until gone 5am – is, at best, far from ideal; at worst, it’s potentially decisive in this match.
The good news is that earlier in the tournament he had managed to preserve energy levels, being handed a walkover in the last 16 and then seeing opponent Lorenzo Musetti quit after winning the first two sets of their quarter-final due to injury.
Still, I think the fatigue factor is likely to be an issue for Djokovic.
And it’s not just a physical thing. Mentally, beating Sinner will have taken a lot out of him. Immediately after the match he said it felt like he’d just won a final and to win a contest like that and then realise you have to play the world number one less than 48 hours later must be challenging, even given everything Djokovic has achieved.
Remember, there’s also a great deal on the line here for the Serb – a 25th Grand Slam title would set an all-time record for men and women.
Tactically, Djokovic will surely look to rip his forehand again. That was probably the most impressive element of his victory over Sinner. Winners flew from that wing off the ground and it was one of the reasons his semi-final was relatively short – 4:09 isn’t that long for 6-4 in the fifth these days.
While it’s hard to do, if you take the fatigue issue away then Djokovic may well fancy his chances of landing the 5/2 upset.
He’s 5-4 up on the head-to-head and it’s 3-1 on hardcourts. That tally includes a four-set victory on the very same Rod Laver Arena in last year’s quarter-finals.
Delve into the data and the Serb holds a strong advantage in their series on second-serve points won – 55% to 48% he leads, although Alcaraz is well up (61-51) on that metric during the current tournament using his remodelled serve which now noticeably mimics Djokovic’s delivery.
Several of their previous encounters have been tight and of high quality – think the Wimbledon 2023 final, the Cincinnati title match that same summer or that Melbourne meeting of 12 months ago – although the most recent was a straight-sets blowout, with Alcaraz triumphant in New York.
Djokovic had few answers that day as Alcaraz dictated behind his serve, facing just a single break point.
And being unable to get that fatigue issue out of my thinking, I believe this could be the way this one goes too.
It’s hard to be confident until we see the pair engaging in the first few games but, right now, I think 7/4 about a STRAIGHT-SETS WIN FOR ALCARAZ looks big.
Almost regardless of his condition, Djokovic will likely struggle to produce a performance as good as Friday’s. Throw in the likelihood that he’s not going to be feeling fresh and it’s not hard to envisage this final going the same way as his major semi-finals did in 2025.
Of course, this rather assumes that Alcaraz will be OK but what I would say is that we’ve seen him back up four/five-hour matches on several occasions in the last few years.
Essentially, this isn’t a bet to be going big on but 3-0 Alcaraz is the call.
If you are expecting a much closer match, there’s a potential bet in the sub-markets where BoyleSports go 8/11 about a tie-break.
Well, six of the previous nine meetings have seen one, while three of those matches have seen at least two.
Alcaraz has held serve 91% of the time in Melbourne with Djokovic at 87%, numbers which suggest serve could hold sway a lot again in the final.
Posted at 14:00 GMT on 31/01/26
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