Australian Open day three tips: Scott Ferguson's best bets from Melbourne

Recommended bets

2pts Ons Jabeur -1.5 games v Caroline Garcia at 20/21

1pt Federer to win the first set 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 at 7/4

1pt Coco Gauff -2.5 games v Sorana Cirstea at 4/5

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Filip Krajinovic v Roger Federer

Wednesday's prime-time match on Rod Laver Arena pits Filip Krajinovic against Roger Federer for the fourth time.

Once again, there'll be calls of favouritism toward the GOAT (greatest of all time), with Federer having Tuesday to rest after a comfortable straight-sets win on the opening day, while Krajinovic battled for four hours spread across two days.

The 27-year-old could have sealed the round one win in regulation time but threw away a 2-0 lead before scraping through 7-5 in the final set, against the world number 215.

Naturally, Federer is at prohibitive odds (1/50), which is still better than bank interest, but not a price which should ever be recommended - unless you want to create your own Price Boost on an acca.

Speaking of Price Boosts, Sky Bet have an interesting one for the popcorn match of the day.

I am expecting the Swiss maestro to come out blazing while Krajinovic is exhausted, so the 7/4 on offer for Federer to win the first set 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 catches my eye. Two of his three wins in this matchup have started 6-2, so he's been known to unlock him early.

Best Bet: Federer to win the first set 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 at 7/4

Ons Jabeur v Caroline Garcia

Tunisian right-hander Ons Jabeur got an easy ride in the opening round against an unfit Johanna Konta, winning in under an hour.

After gaining her first main draw win in Melbourne, she told the press she had big goals this year and has adapted her off-season training to better prepare herself against the injuries which blighted her in 2019.

Reaching the third round at the US Open gave her the belief she can match it at this level and her opponent today will give her great confidence in reaching round three again.

Frenchwoman Caroline Garcia reached a career-high ranking of fourth in 2018 but has slipped back to the outer edge of the top 50. She fought back from a set down to beat Madison Brengle in the opening round in a performance best described as inconsistent.

While she currently sits 32 places ahead of Jabeur on the rankings, she has not been able to unravel the varied game of the Tunisian. They most recently met at the US Open, with Jabeur winning in straight sets, but further research shows at least another four clashes in juniors, where Garcia also went home disappointed.

I treat old form as verging on irrelevant when it goes beyond about five years, but an unbroken series of wins gets into the mind of the defeated.

Best Bet: Ons Jabeur -1.5 games at 20/21

Coco Gauff v Sorana Cirstea

The much-hyped 'next big thing' takes on a player best known for her inconsistency.

Fifteen-year-old Coco Gauff is making steady progress on the tour following her breakthrough at Wimbledon. Only allowed a select number of events at this age, she won her first WTA title in Linz in October to propel her ranking into automatic entry territory for major tournaments.

She started her southern hemisphere campaign in Auckland, winning her opening round before a tight loss to Laura Siegemund, a canny player with the shot variety to unravel pure power players without the experience yet to deal with it.

In a rematch of her famous Wimbledon breakthrough, she defeated an ailing Venus Williams quite easily, revelling in the atmosphere of a major tournament and reining in her power to let Venus make the errors.

Sorana Cirstea is an aggressive player who needs to control the play to succeed. She can often get the wobble mid-match and is rarely a serious betting commodity - it's just not good for the sanity.

In the opening round, she beat the 32nd seed Barbora Strycova who gave up too many half-court balls, allowing the Romanian the majority of her 32 winners. Prior to that she had withdrawn in Hobart after winning two matches in qualifying against opponents outside the top 100.

Cirstea will try to take on Gauff at her own game, without the consistency or variety to counter Gauff's power, and particularly the teenager's biggest weapon, her all-or-nothing second serve which snuffs out the cheap opportunity to tee off for a cheap point.

The Romanian might match her for a set but when she does fall away I expect Gauff to break her more than once and cover the game handicap.

Best Bet: Coco Gauff -2.5games (vs Sorana Cirstea) at 4/5

Posted at 1745 GMT on 21/01/20

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