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1.5pts Sofia Kenin to win at 6/4

Sofia Kenin v Garbine Muguruza

• Saturday, 0830 GMT, Eurosport

Not even Mystic Meg could have predicted this pairing playing for a piece of silverware known as the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup. We know the WTA Tour is wide open at the moment, that's the beauty of betting on it, but it's a difficult puzzle to solve when the finalists have met just once before - in stark contrast to Thursday's men's semi-final which was the 50th contest between Djokovic and Federer.

Seven of the past eleven women's Grand Slam singles title winners been first-timers so it's the land of opportunity for Sofia Kenin. She was the ultimate party-pooper on Thursday, knocking out Ash Barty by suppressing the Aussie's biggest assets.

The longer the point went, the more the points turned her way. The backhand slice didn't bother her, she just took it all in and counter-punched when the opportunity arose. Staying in the point without hitting defensive moonballs is her strong point.

The Florida resident was successful in their only previous Tour clash, a three-setter in Beijing last September which finished after 2.30am. The 6/0 2/6 6/2 scoreline illustrates an erratic match where neither player was able to maintain their level for more than a few games, accentuated by being in the first round so both women were still adjusting to the conditions.

They did meet a month before that in the circus known as World Team Tennis with the American winning the one-set clash, but it is hard to put any real value in that showbiz event.

Since then, however, Garbine Muguruza has rediscovered the form that took her to world number one and two Grand Slam titles. She relished the heat in the semi against Simona Halep, imposing relentless pressure on the Romanian, never allowing her to get comfortable.

That's the aggressive game style at its best, and critically, she held her nerve to win the key points, something she had lost from her game since her last major title at Wimbledon 2017.

The match will look like it's on the Spaniard's racquet from go to whoa. She'll be the one doing most of the attacking but also hitting more of the errors. How much advantage does the experience of winning two major titles give her?

Kenin is the novice but shows no sign of being starstruck on the big stage. She was the number one American all through the junior ranks and she has now arrived as a contender in the big tournaments.

As Muguruza keeps hitting harder and harder, Kenin will be the sponge, absorbing everything and frustrating the daylights out of her opponent. She won't be hiding against the back fence like a claycourt retriever, she'll be pushing up to the baseline, minimising the reaction time as she keeps Muguruza running.

There will be plenty of breaks of serve in this match, don't get frustrated with the rollercoaster ride, it just reflects both players having stronger ground games than their serves.

Muguruza has been chalked up as favourite based on her trophy cabinet. She's on fire at the moment, but so is Kenin and I think this is as close to flipping a coin as you can get.

Thus at the price, the American becomes a bet.

Preview posted 1525 GMT on 31/01/2019

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