Andy Schooler is back from holiday and returns to preview the third-round matches at the ATP National Bank Open in Montreal.
Tennis tips: National Bank Open
1pt Cameron Norrie to beat Alex de Minaur at 9/5 (BetMGM, VirginBet)
1pt Alexei Popyrin to beat Thiago Agustin Tirante at evens (General)
Cameron Norrie v Alex de Minaur (Thu)
There were plenty of seeded casualties in round two of the Canadian Masters 1000 event, the National Bank Open, with only three of the top eight making it through.
De Minaur was one of those three but he could be vulnerable here.
The pair’s head-to-head record stands at 3-3 and if you apply the hardcourt filter, that becomes 3-1 in Norrie’s favour.
A return to the hardcourts has boosted the Briton and he’s backed up last week’s run to the semi-finals in Los Cabos with two straight-sets wins so far in Montreal.
Of course, the quality level rises here but Norrie will be enthused by his record in this match-up and I remain unconvinced by De Minaur’s form.
It’s only a few weeks since he cut a seriously dejected figure in the Wimbledon press room, chastising himself over a last-16 exit, and last week’s return in Washington hardly erased that memory with the Australian losing in the last eight to Brandon Nakashima.
It was arguably quicker than ideal for De Minaur there but although conditions here are slower, that also suits Norrie, whose best results have often come on a sluggish hardcourt – remember he won his only Masters title in Indian Wells back in 2021.
Notably, it was also at Indian Wells that Norrie posted his most recent victory over De Minaur – earlier this season – and so I just think he’s a big price here at 9/5.
Alexei Popyrin v Thiago Agustin Tirante (Fri)
Popyrin loves Montreal.
He was the surprise champion when this event was last staged in Quebec in 2024 – I remember it well having tipped him on these pages at 20/1 to win his quarter.
A return to the venue has sparked the Aussie into life again and he was impressive in dismissing Raphael Collignon, a player who has enjoyed a fine season, in the last round. Popyrin did not face a break point in that one and his serve has clearly been a strong weapon in these conditions.
The same can be said of Tirante, who took down seventh seed Taylor Fritz on Wednesday.
However, Fritz was clearly underprepared having dashed to Montreal after Monday’s Washington final and it was a disappointing showing from the American, who struggled to deal with the Argentine’s big serve.
Maybe this will go a similar way, although it should be pointed out Tirante had much greater problems dealing with local wild card Duncan Chan in the opening round, only winning via a final-set tie-break.
Chan, ranked outside the top 600, was able to get stuck into the Tirante second serve – and Popyrin will likely get plenty of looks at that, with Tirante yet to hit 50% first serves in at the tournament.
I believe the market has over-reacted to Tirante’s win over a below-par Fritz and Popyrin is worth backing for victory as the slight underdog.
Posted 09:45 BST on 06/08/2026
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