After a 9/5 winner in his last preview, Andy Schooler is back to look at the fourth-round matches at the ATP National Bank Open in Montreal.
Tennis tips: National Bank Open
1.25pts Ben Shelton to beat Joao Fonseca at 4/5 (General)
1pt Thiago Agustin Tirante to beat Learner Tien at 5/2 (Sky Bet, bet365, betway)
Joao Fonseca v Ben Shelton (Sun)
Time and again we’ve seen US players find their groove when playing at this time of year when the tour is heading around the North American hardcourts.
Shelton – winner of this event last year when it was staged in Toronto – fits that bill here.
His serve was back in business on Friday when Zizou Bergs failed to create a single break point on it and while Fonseca has a better all-round game, he is ranked only seven places higher.
I like the Brazilian but it’s fair to say he’s yet to show the consistency needed to push on to the top level – hardly a huge criticism at 19 but one relevant in terms of this contest.
Many will remember his victory, from two sets down, against Novak Djokovic at Roland Garros but that remains his only win over a top-10 player this season.
One of his four such losses came at the hands of Shelton on the clay on Munich, where you’d think he’s have a better chance of returning well. However, the fact is he created just the one break point that day.
While Fonseca has defeated Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas so far in Montreal, both men had chances with the former going just 1-for-7 on break points.
Shelton’s return game is far from great but I think he’ll likely dominate on his own serve and likely eke out some opportunities from which he can capitalise.
Learner Tien v Thiago Agustin Tirante (Sun)
I opposed Tirante in the last round but noted the potential for his serve to cause Alexei Popyrin problems and, sadly, that’s how it turned out.
The Argentine went unbroken for the second match in a row and, after his opening-round struggles, he looks to have found his groove.
Frankly, he looks a big price here at 5/2 with the handicap an option, too – Tirante gets a 3.5-game start in that market.
Admittedly, Tien’s return game is a strong facet but he’s sometimes struggled against the top servers – he’s failed to break Jannik Sinner and Alex Zverev this season, while Felix Auger-Aliassime sent down 22 aces in his Halle win.
Most recently, Adrian Mannarino flummoxed Tien in Washington last week when he didn’t have to face a break point.
With this being the pair’s first meeting, I think it could well take Tien time to get a read on the big Tirante delivery and in best-of-three tennis, that can prove costly.
Tien hasn’t been in the best of form in recent months. He did win in Geneva in May but if you take that week out, he’s gone just 9-8 since Indian Wells.
Maybe he’s another American whose about to deliver on his home continent but he was unconvincing against Gael Monfils, who created 13 break points, and Tommy Paul’s miserable form means I’m not reading as much into that win as perhaps the bookies are.
Tirante for the upset looks worth a small poke.
Posted 09:35 BST on 08/08/2026
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
