Ben Shelton faces Brandon Nakashima in the National Bank Open final in Montreal on Thursday – Andy Schooler previews the action…
Tennis tips: National Bank Open
1pt Over 10.5 games in the first set at 27/20 (Virgin Bet)
1pt Ben Shelton to win 2-0 at 13/10 (BetVictor, William Hill)
1.5pts Shelton to serve most aces at 4/5 (bet365)
Ben Shelton v Brandon Nakashima (0100 BST, Fri)
It’s hard not to have been impressed by Ben Shelton’s run in Montreal.
He’s yet to lose a set and now stands just one victory away from defending the title he won in Toronto 12 months ago.
Fair play to Nakashima for making his first Masters 1000 final but he’s had some help from the upsets in the draw.
The American hasn’t had to face any player who was ranked in the top 20 when the tournament began, so facing the current world number 10 now is a decent step up.
Shelton’s route to this stage has certainly been tougher with Learner Tien, Jakub Mensik and Joao Fonseca all comfortably dispatched.
What’s been particularly good about the Shelton game is his returning.
While we’ve all got used to him dominating behind his imposing serve, he’s often struggled on return. Indeed, the numbers show he’s the worst in the top 10 when it comes to breaking serve.
However, this past 10 days he’s been in the zone and has secured three or more breaks in every match he’s played in Montreal.
That doesn’t bode well for Nakashima, a player whose strength is his serve which often gives him a platform to build on – he’s won three of his five matches at this tournament without dropping serve.
What also doesn’t bode well is his head-to-head record against Shelton – he’s lost all 5-0.
However, the matches have all been tight, every one featuring a tie-break, so you can see how Nakashima could offer his backers at 19/10 hope.
In fact, seven of the 12 sets these two have played have resulted in a tie-break with Shelton winning six of those.
A first-set tie-break is a 7/4 shot but preference is for over 10.5 games in that opening set, which can be backed at 27/20 – it’s landed in 10 of their 12 previous sets.
In terms of Shelton’s ability to break in Montreal, over 1.5 breaks at 8/11 is certainly tempting.
However, the way I want to get with the favourite here is to back him to win 2-0.
He’s won 11 of their pair’s 12 previous sets and is playing some of the best tennis of his career in conditions that appear to suit.
Yes, you could say similar things about Nakashima but I believe Shelton is the better all-round player and that’s long been backed up by their respective rankings.
Finally, I can’t pass up a chance in the aces markets where I’m surprised to see Shelton available for most aces at 4/5.
He hosed up on this count in Toronto last year, winning 19-3 and his margins of victory in the last four meetings read 16-6-3-9.
Once again we see this market being priced up on aces at the tournament – admittedly Nakashima is well ahead – but Shelton’s longer reach has clearly prevented him from sending too many down when they’ve met, while Nakashima has struggled to get his racquet on many Shelton serves with the younger player hitting 12+ in three of their last four matches.
Posted 13:00 BST on 13/08/2026
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