Andy Schooler previews Friday’s action at the Nitto ATP Finals when Alex Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime will battle for the remaining semi-final berth.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals
1.5pts Ben Shelton (-1.5) to beat Jannik Sinner on the double-faults handicap at 5/6 (bet365)
1pt tie-break in Sinner v Shelton at 7/4 (BoyleSports)
Jannik Sinner v Ben Shelton (1300 GMT)
This is a dead rubber – Sinner has already won the Bjorn Borg Group while Shelton can’t reach the semis – but there are actually a couple of bets I like here.
No, I’m not going to back the 9/1 underdog in what is, pretty much, a meaningless match for Sinner, although that’s an approach I’ve taken in some ‘dead’ contests of the past.
Instead, the prices I like are based around the pair’s previous matches, of which there have been eight. Sinner has won the last seven – and the last 19 sets - and is 2-0 up on indoor hardcourts.
However, the devil is in the detail, as they say.
Look at the scorelines and you find there has been a tie-break in seven of the eight meetings, showing that the Shelton serve has been problematic to return.
Admittedly, the one odd one out came recently in Paris – and that’s the concern.
Sinner is clearly playing exceptionally well right now, whereas Shelton has admitted being disappointed with his level since the US Open.
However, the scenario means the pressure is very much off here for Shelton. Everyone is expecting him to lose and so he might as well go out and swing freely and use that lefty serve as a real weapon.
It may well be the case that Sinner will experiment a little given this means nothing – by the time he takes to the court, he will know his semi-final opponent on Saturday. Whoever that is won’t be a left-hander but Sinner may still be able to use the style of Shelton to prepare in some way.
Any tie-break in this match is a 7/4 shot, while a first-set breaker – the outcome in four of the eight previous encounters – also looks big at 7/2. I’ll go with the first option.
My other bet relates to the serve markets, namely the double-faults handicap.
The market gives Sinner a 1.5 start but Shelton looks more than capable of covering it.
He’s done so in seven of the eight previous matches with the margins between the pair being 5-5-6-1-4-5-3-3.
Sinner’s serving has been immaculate this week and he’s produced just the one double fault so far in Turin with Shelton having delivered five across his two matches.
There will be plenty of pressure put on Shelton’s second serve here and history shows that has brought double faults from his racquet before.
Alex Zverev v Felix Auger-Aliassime (1930 GMT)
This is the big match of the day and the scenario is simple – the winner will progress to Saturday’s semi-finals.
The problem is, I’m struggling to find a bet I’m confident about.
The market looks about right in making Zverev the 4/7 favourite. If pushed, I’d go with the German to make it to the last four.
He has won six of the previous nine meetings, including both on an indoor hardcourt, and while both players are capable of throwing in patches when they simply produce too many errors, I believe Zverev is the slightly more consistent player.
His level was pretty high on Wednesday night when he ultimately lost 6-4 6-3 to title favourite Jannik Sinner.
But, as the man himself pointed out afterwards, the scoreline did not really reflect the closeness of the match.
He said: “The biggest difference was how he was serving on the break points. I had more break points than him (seven but didn’t convert any). I felt very good from the baseline.
“I thought it was a good match, which maybe was closer than the score says.”
I suspect a similar display here would be too much for FAA, who battled back to defeat Ben Shelton in three sets in his last match.
He was actually a bigger price to beat Shelton (13/8) than he is to win this one (6/4) which is a little strange, even when you consider the slight injury cloud that was hanging over Auger-Aliassime the other day.
I don’t see the value in him as I did two days ago.
If I were to back something here, it would be 2-0 Zverev at 6/4 but it may well be closer so I’m happy to leave this one alone.
Posted at 1445 GMT on 13/11/25
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