It’s been five profitable days out of seven so far at the Nitto ATP Finals for our Andy Schooler. Check out his verdict on Sunday’s Carlos Alcaraz v Jannik Sinner showdown.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals
1pt Carlos Alcaraz to beat Jannik Sinner at 6/4 (General)
1pt Sinner to serve 2+ double faults at 5/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Sinner to serve 3+ double faults at 9/1 (bet365)
Carlos Alcaraz v Jannik Sinner (1700 GMT)
It is very apt that the 2025 ATP Tour season ends with a meeting of this duo.
These two players have stood head and shoulders above every other male player this year, capturing all four Grand Slam titles between them. They will now add the Tour’s biggest prize to that haul.
But who will be the man lifting the trophy in Turin on Sunday night?
A case can easily be made for both men but on this occasion I’m being led by the odds and, to me, Alcaraz offers the value at 6/4.
I picked out Sinner as the most likely winner in my outright preview and would likely have backed him had his odds not been cut from evens to 4/6.
However, Alcaraz has definitely been better in Turin than I’d expected, improving with every round.
He actually struggled at times during his opener against Alex de Minaur but being tested by Taylor Fritz in what was a high-quality encounter appears to have been just what the doctor ordered. He’s subsequently dismantled by both Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Of course, Sinner is the greatest test available right now but Alcaraz will head in with confidence high and fully aware of his impressive record in this match-up.
He leads the head-to-head 11-5 overall and 7-2 on hardcourts. Perhaps most pertinent is that he’s won seven of the last eight.
Alcaraz was striking the ball so well against FAA on Saturday evening, hitting winners for fun, and I have no doubt he’s going to cause Sinner more problems in this one.
Whether it’s enough to win is open to debate.
The man himself was playing down his chances, probably sensibly – loading further pressure on his opponent looks good business.
He said: “Who is the favourite? I mean, the number one (ranking) means that I've been playing really good during the whole season, in the whole surfaces. He's playing the best on indoor court. We're playing in front of his home crowd. I would say he's the favourite.”
Sinner has indeed been majestic on indoor hard – four straight-sets wins this week have stretched his winning streak in such conditions to 30 matches. It’s now two years since he lost on an indoor hardcourt.
Asked about that indoor success, Sinner said: “It suits my game maybe the best because I'm someone who is quite flat and has this rhythm game, which gives me the confidence to keep going for shots and changing direction a little bit easier. I think that's what indoor tennis makes me feel comfortable.”
That figure of 30 doesn’t include two notable wins, either.
During that period, Sinner has beaten Alcaraz twice on indoor hard at the 6 Kings Slam, technically an exhibition event but one taken seriously by the players due to the huge prize money on offer in Saudi Arabia.
The most recent of those, last month, was won without Sinner facing a break point.
His serving has been key to his recent success – the Italian has gone unbroken this week in Turin, although opponents have had some chances with 12 break points saved. Had Alex Zverev taken one of seven he created, that contest would likely have looked a lot different.
At this point, it’s worth mentioning the fact that in September’s US Open final – a match Alcaraz won fairly easily in four sets – Sinner’s first-serve percentage dipped below 50% for the one and only time this season. It’s hard to beat a player of Alcaraz’s quality when you are hitting so many second serves.
I remember Novak Djokovic’s former analyst Craig O'Shannessy highlighting the fact that Sinner missed a lot of his wide serves during that match and that suggests he was going for the lines a bit more, knowing the damage Alcaraz can do on return.
That leads me to my best bet, namely Sinner to serve 2+ double faults. This looks a big price at 5/2.
The reason for those odds appears to be the fact he’s served only one double fault this week in Turin and is clearly serving very well.
However, no-one puts pressure on the server like Alcaraz and it’s not hard to see Sinner being forced to put a bit more on second serves or aim closer to the lines more than usual.
Long-term readers will know I place a great deal of weight on previous meetings when it comes to the serve markets and a dive into the details of the head-to-head shows Sinner has served 2+ double faults in 14 of the pair’s 16 official matches.
I also can’t resist ‘laddering’ here and going with 3+ too which is a whopping 9/1.
- Preview posted 0826 GMT on 16/11/2025
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