Snooker tips: English Open match betting preview and best bets
James Cooper has looked at the held over and second-round matches of the English Open and recommends two bets.
Snooker match betting tips: English Open
2pts Zhang Anda -1.5 frames against John Astley at 5/6 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Liam Highfield to beat Ricky Walden at 7/4 (William Hill)
Allegations and subsequent suspensions against five players into the manipulation of matches for betting purposes has overshadowed the start of the English Open proper but the show goes on in Brentwood, starting on Monday.
The first match I like the look of is ZHANG ANDA versus John Astley with the odds available suggesting the compilers have either given the latter a shade too much respect or underestimated the superiority of the former a touch.
Having regained his tour status via Q School, it’s been a solid if unspectacular start to the season for Astley with a last-32 performance in Northern Ireland his best display so far.
A 4-0 win over Ng On-Yee booked Astley’s place in round two of the English Open but having assessed his season overall, he’s still prone to the odd heavy defeat and in Zhang Anda, Astley faces a classy operator who often goes under the radar in tournaments.
A detailed look at the opponents Zhang has faced indicates that he will probably be a shade disappointed with his results so far this season and that, coupled with a positive head-to-head record (admittedly from a very small sample of two matches) in Astley’s favour, may explain the reason for the current odds, though whether that is correct is open to debate.
In terms of the numbers for this, I make Zhang 8/13 v 13/8 Astley per frame which results in a best-of-seven win probability of just shy of 0.75, so 1/3 for the Chinese potter to triumph.
The -1.5 FRAME HANDICAP looks the way to play this given it’s an 8/11 shot with me for Anda to restrict Astley to a maximum of two frames, with 5/6 available.
Highfield finding top form
Dave Gilbert against Yuan Sijun is an intriguing contest in that Gilbert arrives on the back of a mid-match concession followed by an early defeat in Scotland. He could be a vulnerable favourite but I bet almost exclusively to figures and that’s more of a feel wager at the current odds.
Instead, the Ricky Walden against LIAM HIGHFIELD clash provides the other bet, with Highfield a shade too big at the 7/4 available.
There are very few unknowns to consider in this match with both firmly established which makes confidence in my assessment of them from a ratings perspective pretty high.
Highfield’s start to the season was underwhelming to say the least but he showed a lot more to qualify for the York stage of the UK Championship and what I’ve liked of late is that he has come back from very unpromising positions a couple of times.
Indeed, he was 5-2 down against Ali Carter before producing a stirring comeback and he also trailed Aaron Hill 3-1, only to rattle off three frames on the bounce to make round two in this event.
Walden played well in Scotland last time out and with the German Masters having cut up quite a bit due to a series of shock qualifying results, he may have an eye on that event as a chance to add to his ranking-title collection.
To be fair, Walden was nearly a casualty himself given he was behind and struggling against Adam Duffy and in this short-format match, I couldn’t have Highfield bigger than 13/8 betting to 100%, so there’s a small window of opportunity to be had.
Posted at 1450 GMT on 10/12/22
Related links
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ
Next Off
Fixtures & Results
