The World Grand Prix kicks off on Monday evening in Leicester and James Cooper has found two outright bets to consider along with a quarter wager.
Snooker betting tips: World Grand Prix
0.5pt e.w. Hossein Vafaei to win the Grand Prix at 40/1 (General 1/2 1,2)
0.5pt e.w. Tom Ford to win the Grand Prix at 40/1 (StarSports, 1/2 1,2)
1pt Noppon Saengkham to win Quarter 3 at 17/2 (General)
Ford now a reliable proposition
At the time of writing there’s a pulsating clash in progress for Masters glory, with Ronnie O’Sullivan, in pursuit of a famous Triple Crown, locked in battle with Ali Carter, a five-time ranking winner chasing the biggest victory of his career.
Such is the rat-a-tat nature of the snooker schedule, the show moves on seamlessly with the Grand Prix, comprising the top 32 players on the one-year-list, starting on Monday evening at the ever-increasingly familiar Morningside Arena, Leicester.
The event has had a somewhat nomadic lifespan since its re-branding in 2015 given we are already on location number five and the Grand Prix has moved around a bit in the calendar, too.
Seeded one, Judd Trump takes on the 32nd seed in Jamie Jones at the head of the draw and to book-end things, Ronnie O’Sullivan clashes with the 31st player on the list in Pang Junxu, with the rest slotted in between.
The result of that is a nice blend in all four quadrants though given the short-term nature of one-year rankings, there are several surprise absentees, with no fewer than four Masters representatives, namely Neil Robertson, Kyren Wilson, Rob Milkins and defending World Champion Luca Brecel missing out.
I say no fewer than four as it perhaps wouldn’t be the greatest surprise of all time were O’Sullivan to swerve the assignment given he’s already missed three of the Home Nations events this season.
His record when fresh is excellent and even though the Masters is just four games from first round to the trophy, the mental examination of one of the biggest tournaments of the season cannot be overlooked.
That said, the Grand Prix is the first of three events comprising the Players Series and the strong likelihood remains that the best player of all time will be rocking up in the Midlands this week.
Market leaders swerved at current prices
It’s 4/1 Judd Trump, 9/2 Ronnie O’Sullivan and 15/2 Mark Selby for outright glory with a gap to 12/1 for the rest.
In its current iteration, Trump (3) and O’Sullivan (2) have triumphed a combined five times from nine Grand Prix tournaments and when Neil Robertson tasted glory in 2020, he was at the very top of the tree, too.
The season form of both has been excellent, albeit Trump will feel his quarter-final defeat against Carter was one that got away having picked the pocket of Kyren Wilson in round one.
O’Sullivan remains as good as ever and his ability to win when not at his very best is now one of his greatest attributes and that’s saying something.
That offers clear hope for anyone siding with the market leaders this week but the strong feeling for me is that the pool of potential tournament winners (away from the Majors, at least) has never been higher and along with two other factors, match length in the early stages of the tournament coupled with what is a very quick turnaround for those competing in the Masters, is enough for me to leave that pair alone this week.
Shorter format favours second-tier players
Both intuitively and mathematically, the shorter the match length, the better chance an underdog has of beating a superior player and as a result of that, the format of the Grand Prix should help the mid-ranked players.
It’s best-of-seven action for rounds one and two and even the quarter-final is best-of-nine only, so I’m looking for heavy break builders who perhaps can’t mix it with the elite in the safety department but can more than hold their own when in the balls.
Step forward, HOSSEIN VAFAEI, TOM FORD and NOPPON SAENGKHAM, with the first two players backed for outright glory, while Saengkham gets the nod to win Quarter 3 at a generous 17/2.
For clarity, I am leaving Quarter 1 well alone given I don’t think the outsiders are capable of seeing off a combination of Judd Trump, Mark Selby and Ali Carter.
Quarter 2 is stacked full of quality with a trio of World Champions in Mark Williams, Shaun Murphy and John Higgins while there’s the classy Barry Hawkins to overcome, too.
On the face of it, that’s a daunting assignment for Vafaei, but it becomes a lot more palatable when you consider he’ll only need to beat two of that quartet to win this section.
First up is Matt Selt, who is without question an underrated player on the circuit.
That said, the enigmatic Iranian blew him away at York recently and such is the scoring power of Vafaei, I fancy he’ll get himself in early in enough frames to overcome that obstacle.
The niggling doubt is to whether Vafaei can hold it together mentally in the latter stages of a tournament but this fairly low-key venue ought to help in that regard and odds of 40/1 are four or five points too big for my money.
Ford certainly won’t lack for support back in his home city and while I confess I’d have struggled in the past to convince myself to back him outright for an event, Ford is maturing nicely as a player.
Sure, a defeat in the International Championship against Zhang Anda will have stung a bit given you don’t get many ranking final opportunities against a player not from the very top drawer.
He really didn’t do that much wrong though and that experience is unlikely to be lost on Ford should he get the chance in a final again.
It was also another bumper cheque to the add to the kitty and from a reasonable spot in the draw (on paper anyway) until a potential quarter-final clash with O’Sullivan, odds of 40/1 (StarSports) look acceptable.
I was a shade disappointed with Saengkham’s display having reached the final of the Scottish Open against Gary Wilson last month, 6-1 down before a brief and ultimately futile rally.
He followed that with defeat in German Masters qualifiers against Ashley Carty but hopefully a short break will have enabled the likeable Thai player to recharge the batteries and like Ford, this season can be viewed very positively from a financial perspective.
He’s housed in the open-looking Quarter 3, headed by Mark Allen and Ding Junhui, and I think the way to play Noppon here is to take the 17/2 that he comes out on top in this segment rather than backing him in the outright market.
Opening opponent Xiao Guodong looked to be flying under the radar early this season but his form has tailed off a bit since.
Early defeats in Northern Ireland and Scotland has seen a lack of competitive action for Guodong in recent times and while he qualified for Germany with the minimum of fuss just before Christmas, I make Saengkham an 8/11 shot for that clash while curiously, Guodong is shorter with practically every firm currently priced up to land this section.
Posted at 1820 GMT on 14/01/24
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