With World Championship qualifying under way soon in Sheffield, James Cooper has looked though the first-round matches and recommends bets in three of them.
Snooker betting tips: World Championship qualifiers
1pt Robbie McGuigan to beat Alfie Burden at 100/30 (General)
2pts Michael Collumb +3.5 frames v Xu Si at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt Liam Davies to beat Aaron Hill at 3/1 (bet365, William Hill)
For hardcore snooker punters, next week's World Championship qualifiers provide the best betting opportunities of the season, with career-defining moments, both good and bad, as both tour survival and a ticket to the Crucible are at stake.
The reduction to best-of-11 matches until the final qualifying round has in my opinion taken a little of the lustre away from what is a fabulous 10 days of drama. Nevertheless, we work with what we are given and as if often the case, the lower down the pyramid you go in this sport, the better the value to be found.
Anyone availing themselves of the early 4/7 on Louis Heathcote to beat Ben Mertens will already be feeling very happy with themselves and while the early raft of prices have in general been bashed into line, the latest Q School event in Leeds is a form line that may have been overlooked slightly and provides the cornerstone of my bets.
It should be stressed at this point that this column traditionally takes a very regimental approach to betting on snooker, backing almost blindly the model outputs and while that is still in place here to an extent, it’s fair to say that my ratings for amateur players are not as robust as the top 64 in the game.
With that in mind, there is more of a feel element at play here and my hunch is that the level in these WPBSA Q Tour events is pretty strong at present. The two finalists in Leeds a fortnight ago were ROBBIE MCGUIGAN and MICHAEL COLLUMB and the pair look overpriced to continue the good work.
McGuigan announced himself onto the snooker stage when he became the youngest ever winner of the Northern Ireland Amateur Championship last year aged just 17 and that is no mean feat given the area has always been a hotbed for high-quality snooker.
I didn’t catch any of his matches at the Northern Snooker Centre but victory in a competitive heat such as this (beating a couple of very established sorts at that level in Patrick Whelan and Simon Bedford before seeing off Collumb) will give the youngster enormous confidence in his quest to gain compensation for what was a luckless defeat against Mitchell Mann at this stage last year.
McGuigan looked all over the winner when going 5-2 up and had more than his share of chances to close the match out before ultimately falling short. Sure to have derived plenty from that experience, he looks a big price to see off Alfie Burden on Monday.
Aside from a run to the last 32 in Northern Ireland, it’s been pretty slim pickings for Burden back on the main tour this season. He can count himself a little unlucky on the draw front on a couple of occasions but a 5-0 defeat to Dylan Emery and 4-2 reversal against Rory McLeod suggest he is capable of throwing in the odd bad performance and McGuigan’s rapid style could put him on the back foot if the teenager can get into a rhythm.
I had this match as 0.73 Burden v 0.27 McGuigan so around a 4/11 v 11/4 contest, which makes the 100/30 on offer appealing. There is also value in the handicaps but this clash might not be the time to play in those markets so I will swerve that opportunity.
Beaten-finalist Collumb is more exposed than McGuigan but that can be more helpful in a way when assessing current merit and while I wasn’t in a mad rush to oppose Xu Si, who has banked just over £18,000 this season without doing anything spectacular, he has been priced up very defensively for this clash.
I watched a bit of Collumb from afar at Leeds the other week and he looked in superb touch, a 3-2 win over Adam Duffy a noteworthy result. Chances on the main tour have pretty much been restricted to the Scottish Open and Michael will presumably be focused on another shot at Q School later this spring. That’s not to say he cannot give Si a fright here, though.
In terms of the numbers, I make Xu Si 0.81 to triumph so around 1/4, with Collumb the 4/1 underdog. The general 9/2 available makes a small amount of appeal but I’m not convinced he has the tools to complete a big upset so for this match I will take the +3.5 handicap at 5/6 with Sky Bet given that eventuality is nearer 8/13 with me.
The most interesting first-round match for my money is Aaron Hill against LIAM DAVIES as I am fascinated to see how the youngster gets on here. Aged just 15, he displayed composure and ability well in advance of his years when seeing off Si Jiahui 3-2 the other week. That is a very persuasive piece of form given Si is the stand-out Q Tour Player and carries a far higher rating than Hill with me.
Following a very slow start to the season, Hill has certainly improved of late, defeating Zhao Xintong in European Masters qualifying along with wins over Pang Junxu, Rod Lawler and Stuart Carrington. Aged just 20 himself, he clearly has time on his side but on the back of a headline-grabbing win over Ronnie O’Sullivan last year, Hill hasn’t quite delivered and his open and expansive style may well suit Davies.
Of course, Davies has to prove he can cut it with the pros at this stage of his career and I was a little disappointed he didn’t get the job done against Iulian Boiko in his home Open given he was 3-1 in a best-of-seven but lessons will have been learnt from that and from what I have seen of him, he has the tools to go a long way in the game if keeping his head down.
The early 7/2 about Davies has evaporated but there is still juice in the 3/1 available as it’s a 2/5 v 5/2 contest with me.
Jimmy White to beat Andrew Pagett was going to be my other recommendation as there isn’t enough evidence to suggest the Whirlwind has regressed enough to be outsider in that clash in a match he’s sure to have prepared hard for but the odds-against quotes have disappeared, so I will leave it at three bets.
Posted at 1545 BST on 01/04/22
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