Snooker betting tips: Welsh Open first-round preview and best bets
There’s little time to dwell on the European Masters as the Welsh Open from Celtic Manor got under way on Monday – James Cooper has looked at the action and recommends a bet in three matches.
Snooker betting tips: Welsh Open
2pts Lu Ning to beat Matthew Stevens at 4/5 (General)
1pt Gary Wilson to beat Si Jiahui (-1.5 frames) at evens (William Hill)
1pt Zak Surety to beat Ryan Day at 7/2 (bet365, William Hill)
One player who certainly won’t lack for support this week is Matthew Stevens but upon glancing at his record at his home event, a brace of quarter-final appearances is a very modest return for someone with his standing in the game.
Talent-wise he remains a threat to all on his day but the evidence of the last two seasons indicate alarming dips in form, with defeats to Ken Doherty, Si Jiahui (albeit a talented amateur), Hammad Miah and Peter Devlin this season alone testament to a player who is a risky proposition these days.
Opponent LU NING regularly performs at a higher level than that aforementioned quartet and while a brace of 5-4 defeats in quick succession meant early elimination from the European and German Masters respectively, Lu looked much more fluent in the balls when dispatching Peifan Lei 5-0 to book his place for Turkey and he also took care of Lee Walker in qualifying for this.
Lu has been chalked up as a marginal favourite for this best-of-seven clash but he should arguably be a shade shorter than the 4/5 on offer. The current player ratings I have for each calculate Ning’s win percentage at 59% with Stevens at 41%, so odds of 7/10 v 10/7 is how I see this match priced up to 100%.
Wilson too good to ignore
When first looking at the draw, I had Si Jiahui in mind as a possible value outsider against GARY WILSON, particularly on the back of his WSF Championship win. A two-year tour card is his reward and confidence will be high but, as ever, prices dictate bets and I have now gone full circle, siding instead with the man from the north east on the handicap.
Following a runner-up in the curtain-raising British Open, it’s been pretty slim pickings for Wilson this season, but he remains one of the best in the business among the balls (he has recorded twenty centuries this term).
In terms of the numbers for this, I do think Si Jiahui has been slightly over-rated by the layers. He hit the headlines when stunning Shaun Murphy 6-5 at the UK Championship but it’s worth pointing out that he was a 5/1 chance for that and even allowing for the slightly longer format of that encounter and Murphy being a slightly superior player to Wilson, this isn’t a 4/7 v 13/8 match for me, but more like 4/9 v 9/4.
As such, my -1.5 frames handicap number is 0.52 (10/11) so the evens with Hills is just about an acceptable proposition with the prospect of odds against possible when the remaining firms have priced up.
A player I have had my eye on at the foot of the rankings is ZAK SURETY and he completes the staking plan at 7/2 to spring a surprise against another Welsh player, this time Ryan Day.
Quarter-final appearances in both the European and German Masters confirm Day arrives in good nick and he really ought to have beaten Yan Bingtao in the latter event, too, 60-odd points in front when 4-3 up in a race to five, so it’s probably fair to say that if he maintains those levels he will progress in this tie.
That said, from an admittedly pretty low base, Surety looks to be on the upgrade, as a 5-1 beating of Mark King to qualify for Turkey testifies, while wins over Barry Pinches and Mark Joyce confirm that wasn’t a flash in the pan.
If Surety is to beat a player hovering around the game’s top 16 it will more than likely be in a best-of-seven early-round tie and I have this a 1/3 v 3/1 match, making the 7/2 available a worthwhile investment.
Preview posted at 1715 GMT on 27/02/22
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