Snooker betting tips: Welsh Open best bets and outright preview
The Welsh Open starts on Monday, and Richard Mann has two picks at 22/1 and 18/1 in his outright betting preview.
Snooker betting tips: Welsh Open
1pt e.w. Shaun Murphy to win the Welsh Open at 22/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Mark Williams to win the Welsh Open at 18/1 (BetVictor)
This year’s Welsh Open will carry even more significance than usual, with final spots for the hugely valuable Players Championship, which follows immediately after this event, still up for grabs.
After a poor season to date in ranking events – he did win the invitational Hong Kong Masters and Champion of Champions early in the campaign – Ronnie O’Sullivan will need to get as far as the final in Wales to book his Players Championship ticket.
The quarter-finals might just about do for another of the sport's big hitters, Neil Robertson, after he could only manage the last 16 of the German Masters last week when a warm favourite to lift the title in Berlin.
Both will be desperate to qualify for such a prestigious event – Robertson will be defending champion if he qualifies, while O’Sullivan won in 2018 and 2019, and was runner-up in 2021 – but the plain fact is that neither have the recent form credentials to warrant a bet at present.
I’ve felt that Robertson has been close to putting it all together for a while now but it just hasn’t happened for him, nor O’Sullivan who played well in his defeat to Mark Williams at the Masters but didn’t back it up at the World Grand Prix. Furthermore, his more recent record in Home Nations events isn’t too flash at all.
Big guns have questions to answer
Neither appeals at the prices, and I’m still finding it hard to get a good gauge on Judd Trump, for all he battled hard to win the Masters and make the final of the World Grand Prix the following week.
I still think he’s a little way short of his best and while that may well be good enough to see him win again before too long, I’m not prepared to bet on it.
Mark Allen was the man who beat him that World Grand Prix final, and the Northern Irishman claimed the UK Championship and Northern Ireland Open titles before that in what has been his best season yet.
He keeps going despite his heavy workload, and it’s hard to pick too many holes in him, but the market has caught up now.
John Higgins is another worth a mention, for all he’s in the midst of a dreadful campaign. There have been some positive signs from the veteran Scot at the Championship League in recent days, where his scoring was good, and I can see him going well in Wales as he has so often in the past.
He has a tough first match, though, up against Alexander Ursenbacher, and with Martin Gould awaiting the winner, I’m not overly keen to get involved.
Murphy primed for a deep run in Wales
Instead, SHAUN MUPRHY heads the staking plan at 22/1 following a string of good recent displays that suggest the former world champion is getting back to his best.
Murphy didn’t fire in his semi-final with Trump at the World Grand Prix, but he beat three very solid opponents to get that far, having accounted for Robertson in a terrific clash at the Masters a week earlier.
Before that, he lost out in a deciding frame against Mark Selby, one he really should have won, at the English Open – a defeat made all the more painful when Selby went on to win the tournament.
Throw in a last-eight finish in the UK Championship and there’s lots to like about Murphy’s recent form, particulary the manner in which he is playing, and the fact he's talking up his chances suggests he has got his confidence back.
I don’t mind the early part of his draw, for all things obviously get tougher thereafter, and Murphy’s strong record in this event, including when going all the way in 2020, is another big tick in his box.
With a fair amount in his favour, I’ll happily chance my arm at the odds.
Williams hard to ignore on current form
Joining him in the staking plan is MARK WILLIAMS, who went mighty close to proving readers of these pages with a 20/1 winner at the Masters, just losing out in a memorable final.
Many of the points I made about Williams hitting top form again remain, however, and he continued to look in excellent touch when enjoying a deep run at the Shoot Out, having also played well on his way to the quarter-finals of the World Grand Prix.
Williams’ scoring has been particularly heavy of late and with all the other key components of his game working well, most notably his excellent long potting and flawless temperament, I can’t help but think his turn will come before the end of the season.
He was a winner last term – at the British Open – so I certainly don’t think he’s lost that winning knack, as his victory over O’Sullivan at the Masters confirms.
You can set your watch by Williams at the moment and I’m able to look past a couple of tough early matches because of how quickly out of the blocks he has been this season, winning countless first frames with big breaks.
That is crucial when the early rounds are best-of-seven frames and it feels significant that of the three Home Nations tournaments played so far this term, Williams has reached the quarter-finals of two and third round of the other.
Throw in the fact he’s won the Welsh Open twice already, it seems safe the assume the Welshman will be keyed up to lay down another bold bid in his home event.
Looking at his current form, I suspect he might just do that, and 14/1 seems fair enough.
Posted at 1440 GMT on 09/02/23
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