Richard Mann found the winner of last season's Tour Championship – find out who he's backing in Hull this week.
Snooker betting tips: Tour Championship
1pt e.w. Ali Carter to win the Tour Championship at 10/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/3 1-2)
This year’s Tour Championship will certainly have a different feel to it, with no Ronnie O’Sullivan, John Higgins, or Judd Trump in the line-up. We won’t see last year’s champion Neil Robertson in Hull, either.
They will be missed, but what it does do is present a fine opportunity someone like Shaun Murphy, a brilliant winner of the Players Championship, and WST Classic hero Mark Selby to add some more silverware to the trophy cabinet.
Selby and Murphy dominate the betting
That pair are on course to meet in the semi-finals, with Selby expected to dispose of Ryan Day first up and Murphy fancied to exact revenge on Robert Milkins, the latter having prevailed in their Welsh Open final last month.
Selby is just preferred by the layers in the outright market, with 11/4 the biggest price on offer at the time of writing, and Murphy makes slightly more appeal at the prices, with 7/2 available about him.
I’m in no great rush to back either, though. Selby’s undeniably poor record in ITV events certainly doesn’t inspire enthusiasm in him and either side of his WST Classic and English Open wins, his form this season hasn’t always suggested he is operating in top gear.
In truth, I’m not quite sure where we are with the 39-year-old, for all he is becoming almost unbeatable when his game is good enough to carry him to the latter stages of big tournaments.
As for Murphy, he was a long way from his best when suffering a shock defeat to James Cahill last week and while I rarely get too hung up on the odd poor result, it’s worth remembering that he'd been playing well for a while and that a dip at some stage was inevitable.
Carter the value from top half
At the prices, I’m happy to pass over both and instead, it’s ALI CARTER who makes most appeal at 10/1.
Carter is a class act in his own right, a two-time World Championship runner-up no less, and he's currently in the midst of his best season for some time having scooped the pot at the German Masters and reached the final of the Players Championship.
He was no match for Murphy on the latter occasion but nobody was that week, and Carter beat Trump, Milkins, and Joe O’Connor to reach the final, since which he's maintained a strong level of form.
He was a semi-finalist at the WST Classic, his four last-four finish of the season, and he played particularly well to come from 2-0 down to beat Stuart Bingham 4-2 in the quarter-finals.
Selby trounced him a few hours later, but the eventual title winner barely missed a beat in that match, and it doesn’t take anything away from the current wellbeing of Carter’s game.
I certainly think he’s in a better place than Kyren Wilson right now, and I’m struggling to fathom why the latter is almost half the price in the outright market. Their quarter-final tie should be a good tussle, but it’s one I expect Carter to progress from.
The second quarter-final in the top half of the draw sees Mark Allen take on Ding Junhui in a repeat of the UK Championship final, a match which saw the Northern Irishman pull off a fine comeback having trailed 6-1 at one stage.
Allen has gone on to win the World Grand Prix, adding to his Northern Ireland Open triumph earlier in the campaign, but his form has tailed off a little since and I can see why he’s only slight favourite for this one.
Don't discount dangerous Ding
Ding has endured mixed fortunes since, which has become the norm with him, but he was excellent when winning the Six Reds World Championship just a few weeks ago when he appeared to thrive in front of a packed crowd for what is a huge event in Thailand.
As Neal Foulds argued in his latest column, the big stage really seems to suit Ding and he just doesn’t appear to have the desire to slog it out on back tables in lesser events that carry very little significance to a man who has achieved so much in the game already.
This week could be ideal for him and we know his best is still more than good enough. His form was nowhere before he roared back to prominence at the UK Championship – not for the first time – and he was seriously considered this week.
However, 7/1 is no gift given the obvious drawbacks in backing a player who has become hard to catch right, and Carter’s overall recent profile is much more solid.
With Carter available to back at three points bigger, he has to be the bet with the insurance of backing him each-way worth taking.
Posted at 1300 GMT on 24/03/23
Tour Championship Draw
QUARTER-FINALS
- (1) Mark Allen v Ding Junhui (8)
- (4) Ali Carter v Kyren Wilson (5)
- (3) Mark Selby v Ryan Day (6)
- (2) Shaun Murphy v Robert Milkins (7)
How to watch the Tour Championship
- Where: Bonus Arena, Hull
- Dates: March 27-April 2
- TV: Every match will be shown live on ITV4
- Format: All matches best of 19 frames
- Prize fund: Winner: £150,000; Runner-up: £60,000; Semi-final: £40,000; Quarter-final: £20,000; Highest break: £10,000; Total: £380,000
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