Snooker betting tips: Gibraltar Open first-round preview and best bets
James Cooper has looked through the first-round matches at Gibraltar Open and has three bets to consider.
Snooker betting tips: Gibraltar Open
1pt Ashley Hugill to beat Fan Zhengyi at 7/4 (General)
1pt over 5.5 frames in Ronnie O’Sullivan v Ben Woollaston match at evens (Sky Bet)
With next week’s Tour Championship restricted to the season’s elite eight, the Gibraltar Open is the final place to accrue valuable ranking points before the pressure cooker of the World Championship Qualifiers and the main event itself next month.
When I first scanned the first-round matches for Gibraltar, I expected there to be a raft of non-runners coupled with several glaringly-obvious bets as compilers struggle to price up those at the foot of the rankings or off the tour altogether. Neither eventuality has actually occurred but, as ever, when there are 64 ties to go at, there’s apparent value to be had in three matches.
It probably goes without saying that the biggest mover in my ratings list this season is Fan Zhengyi following his phenomenal European Masters success last month.
For a 21-one-year-old to do that at this stage of career, particularly given there were no prior signs he was ready to elevate his game to that level, is some feat and like compatriot Xintong next month, he is a head-scratcher for punters when assessing true ability in the short term.
In my day-to-day job, you would attach the Timeform p to Zhengyi’s current rating but as things stand, betting purely on the model outputs, ASHLEY HUGILL is a bet at 7/4 in Friday’s clash and it’s a position I am comfortable with given Hugill’s promising season.
Hugill has already seen off the likes of Liam Highfield, Ali Carter, Jack Lisowski, Mark Davis and Kyren Wilson this term so has no reason to fear Fan, and I make this a 0.61 Fan v 0.39 Hugill game.
A price between 6/4 and 13/8 is therefore more accurate and while this may look foolish down the line if Zhengyi is the real deal, Hugill remains a wager at the general price of 7/4.
Woollaston to push O'Sullivan close
The practice of yardstick handicapping in horse racing (rating a race around a reliable performer) seems to be a thing of the past as analysis has improved, and it’s clearly not something I would use in head-to-head snooker, but if I were to go down that route, Ben Woollaston would probably be the man I would choose.
His rating with me barely deviates season upon season as in short, he tends to see off inferior players in the manner one would expect, while often losing to superior players in similar fashion.
As a punter, it can certainly be argued that opposing talented yet inconsistent players is the more fruitful betting proposition, but having an established handle on a player can also be beneficial and the Woollaston against O’Sullivan match-up looks a pretty good avenue to draw a firm conclusion.
I make the match a 0.78 v 0.22 clash which is pretty much in line with most compilers, but the OVER 5.5 MATCH FRAMES outcome at evens with Sky Bet is a shade too big in my opinion.
Using the aforementioned best-of-seven frames prices, the prospect of over five frames being played is 0.54 (17/20) with me and when you consider O’Sullivan’s comparatively-low conversion rate covering the pre-game supremacy compared to matches won this season, it’s clear that Ronnie has found a way to win ugly.
That suits this wager down to the ground and with Woollaston expected to be very competitive, there’s clear mileage in siding with overs.
Preview posted at 0900 GMT on 23/03/22
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