Snooker betting tips and analysis: Northern Ireland Open qualifying preview and best bets
The snooker schedule continues apace with qualifying for the Northern Ireland Open, which begins on Tuesday in Sheffield.
Snooker betting tips: Northern Ireland Open qualifying
1pt Dylan Emery to beat Martin Gould at 13/8 (General)
1pt Sean O’Sullivan +1.5 frames to beat Andrew Higginson at 6/5 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
We’re back on BST this week and with a smattering of fans present at Ponds Forge, this feels like a more traditional backdrop for qualifiers in a quick-fire best-of-seven format.
The first match of interest is DYLAN EMERY v Martin Gould as it’s a fascinating clash between an up-and-comer against a top-32 regular who may well be on the decline a touch.
These matches are never easy to price up as you have to calculate Emery’s rate of progress of late and this season’s wins against expected is one way of doing that.
Emery’s opponents this term (Championship League aside) read as follows, Barry Pinches, John Higgins (twice), Yuan Sijun, Noppon Saengkham, Oliver Brown, Mark Williams and Joe Perry.
Pre-game expected wins based on that schedule comes out at 2.52 so the fact Emery has managed to win four games represents an excellent start to the campaign.
Gould, on the other hand, has had a very quiet start to the season. A solitary win over John Astley has been flanked by defeats to John Higgins, Wu Yize and Oliver Lines respectively and while there’s no disgrace in losing to those players in isolation, the 2022/23 campaign wasn’t a vintage one for the Pinner potter, either.
With that in mind and based on my current player ratings, Gould has a win percentage of 59% against 41% Emery, meaning any 6/4+ plus is worth taking on the underdog.
With 13/8 the general price (there is 17/10 available with Betfred) that’s bet number one sorted out.
Having chased home the ultra-talented Si Jiahui on the 2021/22 Q School standings, it’s been a real struggle back on the main tour for SEAN O’SULLIVAN.
Health along with cue issues have played a part and while he’s 0-5 this season, it hasn’t been all doom and gloom as he did make his first professional 147 in the European Masters.
A daunting fixture list hasn’t helped, with the mean rating of O’Sullivan’s five opponents coming in at 0.60 on my scale (anything over 0.53 would indicate a tricky first-round schedule).
A 6-5 reversal against Jordan Brown in International Championship qualifying can be viewed in two ways, a pessimist would argue he threw away a 5-2 lead but an optimist would surely call it a far more encouraging performance.
We know plenty about Higginson and having regained his tour card through Q School this spring, it’s been a solid if unspectacular start to life back on the main circuit, coming up shy against Andy Hicks, Zhou Yuelong twice, along with the talented Thai-duo of Un-Nooh and Saengkham.
A routine win against Ryan Thomerson along with an impressive defeat of Cao Yupeng are Higginson’s positive returns and he deserves to be clear favourite for this match, though arguably not the general 1/3 on offer for this short encounter.
It’s a 40/85 v 85/40 match on my figures and with the 12/5 on offer for a Sean O’Sullivan win having been snapped up, the +1.5 handicap may be the correct way to play this, particularly with O’Sullivan anything but a prolific winner in recent times.
That scenario is available at 6/5, while it’s an even-money shot with me.
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