John Higgins takes on Lyu Haotian in the semi-finals of the China Championship and Richard Mann fancies the Chinese youngster to spring a surprise.
With a CV as illustrious as the one John Higgins can boast, I am loathe to take him on at any stage - particularly when he has just beaten a player of Judd Trump's calibre - and at odds of 2/7, the five-time world champion is a strong favourite to see off Lyu Haotian in their semi-final clash.
However, this game is all about value and a closer look at this week's action would suggest that 10/3 chance Haotian has plenty going for him and has probably been underestimated in the betting, both for his semi-final and in the outright market.
Haotian has made significant strides in the last 12 months and finds himself up to number 30 in the One Year World Rankings List following some fine results, most notably when reaching the last 16 of the World Championships in April.
The 20-year-old is clearly honing his craft as he gains more experience and his form this week has been most impressive.
Haotian has already claimed the scalps of Joe Perry and Shaun Murphy here and will have been pleased with his scoring when defeating Martin O'Donnell 5-1 in their quarter-final.
Breaks of 124, 102, 58 and 57 helped Haotian breeze into the last-four and if he can produce a similar level of performance against Higgins, the Scot might be in trouble against a young player who is rapidly improving and is sure to be full of confidence.
Higgins has yet to find anything close to his best form in China, understandably so having opted to skip a few of the early-season tournaments on the calendar, and although he is steadily getting there, it is possible that he might not be able to peak in time to lift this trophy.
Higgins can count himself very fortunate to have scraped past Mei Xi Wen 5-4 in round one and a break of 53 was the best he could muster when beating Scott Donaldson in the following round.
His quarter-final defeat of Trump will have given him some confidence but only two breaks of 50+ in that match tells you that Higgins is still not firing on all cylinders.
Higgins missed a number of regulation pots against Trump, particularly from mid-range, and although his impeccable safety game and rock-solid match play will count for plenty against Haotian, he will still need to raise his game.
Haotian will be able to rely on passionate home support and with the feeling that his time might well be now, he rates decent value at 10/3 to beat Higgins and also in the outright market at 12/1.
Posted at 1600 BST on 28/09/18.
