17:20 Chelmsford City

Thursday 12 September 2019

All17:2017:5018:2018:5019:2019:5020:20

Bet At totesport.com Novice Stakes (Plus 10)

Off time: 17:22 | Winning time: 1m 11.77s

(5)

Last Surprise⁷⁵

Age: 2| Weight: 9-5| J: P Cosgrave| T: S Crisford| OR: 85| D

7/4

Blew a similarly weak lineup away when scoring on debut. Highly tried in two starts on turf since, but sets a high standard for this grade.

Form: 105

(7)

Bill The Butcher¹⁹

Age: 2| Weight: 9-4| J: A Kirby| T: R Spencer

9/4

£64,000 yearling with Middle Park and Mill Reef stakes entries; easy to back and very much in need of the experience on debut, but clearly held in some regard by a yard who usually have a decent juvenile or two.

Form: 5

(2)

Casablanca Kid¹³

Age: 2| Weight: 9-4| J: Dylan Hogan⁽⁵⁾| T: D P Quinn

66/1

Cheap purchase who has barely beaten a rival in either start when beaten an aggregate of 70L. Faces another tough test here

Form: 07

(3)

San Juan

Age: 2| Weight: 9-4| J: N Mackay| T: S L Keightley

12/1

€50,000 purchase as a two-year-old by Tagula out of an unraced mare. Stable 1-17 with this age group over past five years.

Form:

(1)

Shoot To Kill⁴⁸

Age: 2| Weight: 9-4| J: Daniel Muscutt| T: George Scott

7/2

Showed clear signs of ability on debut when fourth in a tight finish. Next run too bad to be true and worth keeping an eye on him in the market.

Form: 46

(4)

Dubai Romance¹¹³

Age: 2| Weight: 8-13| J: Callum Shepherd| T: S bin Suroor

7/1

Dubawi filly out of a winning miler and related to three dirt winners who needed at least a mile. Made little impression on debut and an absence since suggests there may have been an excuse.

Form: 6

(6)

Red's Rocket

Age: 2| Weight: 8-13| J: Nicola Currie| T: Mrs L J Mongan

66/1

Makes little appeal on pedigree being by little known New Zealand sire King Raedwald out of an unraced mare. Stable not known for winning debutants so easy to look elsewhere.

Form:

Forecasts

Last Surprise (7/4), Bill The Butcher (9/4), Shoot To Kill (7/2), Dubai Romance (7/1), San Juan (12/1), Red's Rocket (66/1), Casablanca Kid (66/1)

LAST SURPRISE was an easy winner on his sole AW start and the form looks solid enough to make him tough to beat as he drops down in grade following two defeats since. Bill The Butcher and Dubai Romance may prove better than their debuts indicate, whereas Shoot To Kill would have to be considered a big danger if he can reproduce his debut effort.