Check out Graeme North's best bets for York on Saturday as our Timefigure expert assesses the feature action.
Timefigure tips for Saturday
Back Imperial Sun each-way in 14.25 York at 11/1
Back Imperium Blue each-way in 17.20 York at 16/1
The Sky Bet And Symphony Group Strensall Stakes at 13.50 kicks off a very competitive Saturday on the Knavesmire where Real World will aim to get favourite backers off to a good start in front of sell-out crowd.
A four-and-three-quarter winner of the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot, a winning margin surpassing even that of the subsequent Grade 2 winner Royal Oath back in 2007, Real World’s 118 timefigure for that effort gives him the upper hand here and he showed that Ascot run to be every bit as it looked when following up in what used to be known as the Steventon Stakes at Newbury last time.
The drop back to this intermediate nine furlongs won’t cause him any issues, and despite the presence of the Earl Of Sefton winner My Oberon and other listed winners this year in the shape of Brunch and El Drama, Real World looks the one to beat. Odds of 5/4 are on the skinny side, though, so we’ll look elsewhere.
The Sky Bet Melrose at 14.25, the ‘three-year-old Ebor’, is usually more solvable than the Ebor itself and this year looks no different. Twenty-two runners might be going to post, but a fair few of them look to be no-hopers and only once since 2009 has the race gone to a horse longer than 16/1 (most winners in that period started a single-figure price).
Dhushan, Summer’s Knight and King Of The Castle are the three market leaders at the time of writing. As a son of Sea The Stars, whose progeny have a very decent 60% rivals beaten record in the Melrose, Dhushan has plenty going for him. He hasn’t run a fast timefigure since his debut, but his last three runs have come in steadily-run races and he would have won all three but for being set too much to do at Ascot last time in a race where he ran the last three furlongs fastest of all (one-time Derby entry Surrey Gold who re-opposes here on 3lb better terms ran it around a length slower from a similar position).
Summers Knight is your typical Sir Mark improver and still has more to offer judging on his latest Ffos Las win, while King Of The Castle, a full brother to the Derby winner Serpentine, bids to give Aidan O’Brien a first win in the Melrose after three thirds from six runners, but my eye is drawn to IMPERIAL SUN who is one of two runners in the race for the John and Thady Gosden combo.
Also a son of Sea The Stars, and a half-brother to the St Leger winner Harbour Law, Imperial Sun is bred for the task in hand and really got his act together in the last couple of starts finally upped in trip. He could hardly have been more impressive at Wolverhampton last time when scoring over a mile and a half by four and a half lengths with a ton in hand, and though Timeform’s sectional upgrades award him an extra 8lb superiority over the runner-up from the two-furlong marker, using the last furlong only I calculate that could be 13lb and that’s not even taking into account the amount he was eased.
He’s 10lb higher here but that’s not unexpected and any rain won’t bother him in view of his penultimate effort at Nottingham.
Had this race come several weeks ago I’d have been quite keen on the chances of Primo Bacio in the Sky Bet York Stakes at 15.00 given she was a very good winner over the course and distance back here in May and has some very good sectional upgrades to her name, but the form of her trainer Ed Walker has dropped off a bit lately and she’ll need to be as good as he looked here in May and then a bit more to get the better of Space Blues.
Congratulations to anyone who solves the ridiculously tricky Sky Bet Ebor at 15.35. Tribal Craft comes out best on Timeform’s timefigures but the run that puts her on that pedestal came at Goodwood last time in desperately slow ground and a look at her overall record rather suggests she’ll need the heavens to open.
Thunder Love is marginally top on time in the Julia Graves Roses Stakes at 16.10 but that effort came on the inner loop at Kempton three months ago and her trainer George Boughey is another whose recent form hasn’t matched that he was in when this filly was last seen.
Migration has stood out on sectionals in his two races this season and goes again in the Sky Bet Handicap at 16.45 but an 8lb hike for that effort might just stop him winning again given that a hold-up ride like he normally gets might leave him with a bit to do in this ultra-competitive handicap.
Apprentice sprint handicaps aren’t usually my cup of tea, not least at York as I said earlier in the week, but IMPERIUM BLUE is a horse that has some very good efforts to his name this season and looks overpriced at 16/1 in the concluding 17.20.
He put in a couple of corking efforts in strongly-run five-furlong handicaps at Haydock and Newmarket in July, runs which give him the best chance of all on the clock this season without either really looking to get to the bottom of him.
An out-and-out five-furlong performer (his latest effort at six was more evidence the trip doesn’t suit him), Imperium Blue promises to get the race being run to suit with pace-forcing market leader Blind Beggar dropping to the minimum trip.
Blackrod has strong form claims but is another dropping to five furlongs while taking out a fair chuck of the market too, so Imperium Blue, a course winner here last year, has a fair bit going for him with his yard already having had winners at Carlisle and Kempton this week.
Published at 1500 BST on 20/08/21
