Graham Cunningham puts forward his suggested World Pool plays for Irish Derby day at the Curragh on Sunday.
Auguste to shine in July as Aidan aims for Classic ton
The key stats surrounding this year’s Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby are uncanny.
Aidan has won it 14 times and will raise his bat for an astonishing century of European Classics if he makes it 15, while Ryan is hunting his first success after a string of short-priced reverses.
We won’t get rich backing Auguste Rodin to follow up his Epsom win for O’Brien and Moore at the Curragh this Sunday and the genial guy on Passport Control at Dublin Airport described Sunday’s big race as “a foregone conclusion.”
However, the World Pool offers loads of punting alternatives on an eight-race card that will be live on ITV (first four races) and Racing TV, so let’s hope the following hints prove useful:
Railway Stakes (1.50)
Should we question Ryan’s decision to choose Unquestionable ahead of His Majesty? Irish Derby history shows that even the best call it wrong sometimes and His Majesty’s strong-finishing fourth from stall 16 in the Norfolk suggests this return to six will help him go very close. Unquestionable’s maiden romp here gives him clear Quinella potential but Bucanero Fuerte and Devious also warrant a close look in that department.
Dash Stakes (2.25)
I don’t get a strong feel for this Listed sprint. Commanche Falls is the obvious one but the market won’t miss him and it’s hard to settle on the best of the rest, including the hard-to-predict Mooneista and the up-and-coming Tango Flare.
Rockingham Handicap (3.00)
A complex puzzle whichever way you slice it but this could set up neatly for a smooth-travelling holdup horse and Jon Riggens fits the bill after a string of good efforts, the latest when faring clearly the best of the far side group here in a hot handicap won by Tawaazon. English raider Sheikh Maz Mahood is on the up and is another with plenty in his favour along with Master Matt and Laugh A Minute but the likeable and consistent Jon Riggens looks made for a test like this.
Irish Derby (3.40)
How do you oppose a colt who glided round Epsom to win a Derby that’s already been franked by King of Steel and Waipiro? Maybe we will see the sort of shock that Sovereign provided four years ago but Moore is very unlikely to give the leaders too much rope and Auguste Rodin can put on a real show with several forward-going stablemates to set the table for him. Sprewell and White Birch shaped well in third and fourth at Epsom and head the Q options, though smart maiden Up And Under is the sort to go well for those who like one at a wild price.
Derby Festival Handicap (4.15)
One of the toughest puzzles on the card but the likeable Blues Emperor looks a key player given that he’s only had six runs and the form of his Naas win in May is working out thanks to wins from the second and fourth. Farnborough didn’t have a lot in hand when driven right out to win a Limerick maiden and Chazzesmee is shooting up the weights for smooth wins in lesser races so Current Option and No More Porter make most appeal among the rest.
Summer Fillies Handicap (4.50)
Safe to say Joseph has a potent hand as Yerwanthere and Adelaise have been shaping like winners in waiting for a while, most recently when fifth and fourth after tough trips in a big filles’ handicap at Royal Ascot. Lan Cinnte’s Limerick maiden win has been franked and she’s open to improvement stepping into handicap company but there’s a sense of unfinished business with the JO’B pair. Splitting them is tough – there was precious little between them just over a week ago – but backing Yerwanthere and saving on Adelaise looks the way to go.
Celebration Stakes (5.25)
Cosmic Vega is on top of his game and Didn’thavemuchtodo is another with top four potential but this might boil down to a duel between Dermot and Aidan as Tarawa and Salt Lake City bid to build on good recent runs. Tarawa is rated 107 and receives a 5lb sex allowance after a fine fourth behind stablemate Tahiyra in the Irish 1000 Guineas but Salt Lake City was a shade unlucky not to reel in the bang-in-form Moon de Vega in a similar event on his Leopardstown reappearance and he gets a narrow vote to go one better.
Ragusa Handicap (6.00)
Not one but two close relatives to Irish Derby heroes up in this tough finale. Safecracker is a half-brother to Jack Hobbs who’s fresh from a solid Cork second but Capri’s younger bro Brazil is intriguing given that he’s a 141-rated hurdler racing off 81 on only his second Flat run in almost two years. That recent Flat run was promising over ten furlongs and it’s interesting to see last year’s Fred Winter winner fitted with cheekpieces. He’s a speculator, no question, but the scope for him to make a mark back at a mile and a half is clear.
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