Timeform's Jake Price previews Saturday's Belmont Stakes and has a 7/1 fancy for the last leg of the American Triple Crown.
Best bet in the Belmont Stakes
Rock Your World at 7/1 (General)
Whilst there is no Triple Crown bid riding on Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, it nevertheless has a competitive look to it. Five of the runners renew rivalries from the Kentucky Derby, including a pair who made the frame, plus we have the Preakness winner in the mix, too.
Essential Quality was unbeaten in his first five races and started a worthy favourite for the Kentucky Derby last month. In an exciting four-way stretch battle in which the protagonists pulled clear of the remainder, Brad Cox’s charge was beaten just a length into fourth behind Medina Spirit. However, he deserves the most credit of that quartet having had a wide trip throughout. A son of Tapit, who has sired the Belmont winner three times since 2014, Essential Quality arrives fresh after missing the Preakness and is a worthy favourite.
Hot Rod Charlie has progressed with racing and finished one place ahead of Essential Quality last time out in the Derby. He also beat the Preakness runner-up, Midnight Bourbon, on his penultimate outing in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds in March. His sire, Oxbow, came second in the 2013 running of the Belmont, so stamina is unlikely to be an issue, and he retains the services of top rider Flavien Prat. He also shouldn’t be far away.
The aforementioned Prat was on board Rombauer when he caused a surprise in the Preakness. Rombauer had a fitness-edge on the pair he beat at Pimlico, including Derby winner Medina Spirit, who finished third. That was probably no more than an average renewal, but there seems to be little fluke about his success given the way he picked off the pacesetters. However, he’s already been beaten by Essential Quality both times they’ve previously met, so will need to find more improvement to win this.
Known Agenda came into the Triple Crown picture on the back of a success in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park in March, which was his second consecutive win since the application of headgear. Unfortunately, he wasn’t seen to best effect in the Kentucky Derby. Drawn next to the rail, he was quickly boxed in and had to race a long way back in the pack. In the end, he was far from disgraced in finishing a never-nearer ninth, and this smaller field could prove a good opportunity for him to get back on track. His trainer Todd Pletcher has won this race three times (2007, 2013, 2017).
Another who had no luck in the Kentucky Derby was ROCK YOUR WORLD. Having only begun his racing career on New Year’s Day, he soon made giant strides, and entered the Classic fray when taking his unbeaten record to three with a smooth success in the Santa Anita Derby. That day he had the subsequent Kentucky Derby victor Medina Spirit trailing in second, whilst the third went very close in a Grade 2 on Derby day, too. Rock Your World was badly hampered at the start on the big day at Churchill Downs and was looked after in the straight once his chance had gone. This smaller field should see him to better effect, and he shapes as though he will see out the longer trip, his damsire being 2003 Belmont winner Empire Maker.
There is little separating the main contenders on the figures, and a strong case can be made for each. However, it is hard to escape the impression Rock Your World made when winning the Santa Anita Derby. He’s still unexposed and comes here fresh having skipped the Preakness and, with a cleaner start, he should have little issue getting a prominent pitch early on. He makes plenty of appeal at the current prices.
